Zhou Hongjin:11.1晚间黄金非农走势布局，原油行情解析交易策略，黄金空单解套

Life is always about making choices and waiting for results. The road cannot always be smooth, there will always be obstacles, mediocrity is not the goal that everyone pursues. The investment market is also the same, it cannot be smooth sailing, and windfall profits are everyone's dream, but there are always various temptations and traps along the way. Accustomed to unilateral behavior, one is always stifled by shocks and washes, which is the law of the market. In the face of life, we are making choices. We can't make a detour, we can't make a river, we always have to resort to other methods. And the market, too, should not blindly pursue operation. Some markets may see profits, but they may not necessarily be able to earn profits.
　　11month1日，国际金价下跌，因向好的中国制造业数据减轻对经济放缓的担忧，金市投资者随即获利了结。但金价本周累计上涨逾0.4%，料将连续第三周收高，因围绕经贸前景的不确定性提升避险需求。智利取消了原定于11月中举行的APEC峰会。投资者目光集中在即将公布的美国10月非农就业报告上。美联储年内第三次降息，在这种低利率环境下，世界goldAssociation（WGC）称，投资者应将黄金视为债券的替代品，应考虑将其黄金敞口增加1%To1.5％。由于机会成本几乎完全消失，这有助于提高黄金的吸引力。而世界银行称，预计金价在2020年将上涨5.6％，这将使金价达到1600dollar/About ounces.
　　油价持稳，但是因为全球供应增加，以及国际经贸不确定增加，本周走势困难，周线料大跌。虽然欧佩克可能进一步减产，但因需求前景疲软，油价难以出现大幅上涨。在国际经贸争端持续影响全球经济增长之际，充足的石油实物供应正给欧佩克及其盟友带来压力，要求它们进一步减产以支撑油价。然而，有迹象表明俄罗斯对进一步削减石油产量持谨慎态度，这可能意味着沙特阿拉伯和海湾国家将不得不单独行动。

　　

　　非农数据前瞻：
　　
Friday Beijing Time(11month1day)20:30To be announced in the United States10月季调后非农就业人口变动和失业率，周三(10month30day)包括摩根士丹利(Morgan Stanley)在内的24家大型投行发表了对此次数据的前瞻，24家大型投行预测显示，各投行对非农就业人口增幅的预期分歧较大，具体而言，美国10The growth rate of non-agricultural employment after the seasonal adjustment is expected to be between2.5ten thousand-14Ten thousand, the unemployment rate is expected to be between3.5%-3.6%The average annual rate of increase in hourly salary is expected to be between2.8%-3.1%。稍早公布的数据显示，美国10monthADPIncrease in employment12.5万，预期增加11Ten thousand, previous value increased9.3万。此数据素有小非农之称，数据向好显示10月非农就业报告好于预期的几率较大。
　　
　　Gold trend analysis:
　　
United StatesPCE等数据表现欠佳，市场对非农预期较差，令美元走弱；市场对国际经贸局势的乐观预期有所消退，市场风险偏好降温；众议院投票批准对特朗普的弹劾调查决议，也推升了一些避险情绪；不过，市场预计美国10monthISMmanufacturingPMI数据可能会小幅改善，此外，美联储多位官员还将发表讲话，金价正面临近期震荡区域顶部阻力，能否上破还有待观察。
　　
From a daily perspective, it fluctuates;MACD初步金叉，KDJ初步金叉，金价正试探布林线上轨1514.71附近阻力，鸿ㅣ金认为若顶破该阻力，则有望打开新的上涨通道，10month3日触及的逾一个月高点阻力在1519.65Nearby,9month12Resistance to daily highs1524.24Nearby, then1530Integer level,9month24Resistance to daily highs1535.73Nearby. Due toMACDandKDJ金叉信号都还比较弱，下方继续关注布林线中轨1494.79附近支撑，鸿金认为若回落至该位置下方，则增加短线看空信号；本周低点支撑在1481.33附近；布林线下轨支撑在1474.86附近。当然，1500整数关口附近也存在一定的支撑，周四K线是光头阳线，在失守1500前，短线略微偏向多头。
　　
　　4小时来看，震荡上涨；MACD金叉且上穿零轴，布林线初步开口，关注3268735920若顶破布林线上轨1516.04附近阻力，则金价有望沿布林线上轨向上运行。下方初步支撑在1508.24Nearby, further support at1500.71Nearby, due toKDJThere is a dead cross trend,K线在多重阻力附近录得十字星，暗示上方阻力较强，若金价回落至1500.70下方，则增加短线看空信号。综合来看，今日晚间操作思路上周鸿金个人建议低多为主，高空为辅；
　　
　　Focus on resistance above:1514.71；1519.65；1524.24；
　　
　　下方关注支撑：；1507.40；1500.70；1494.79；

　　

Suggestions for Gold Operations:
　　
　　1Callback1507Do not break long, stop loss4US dollars, look at the target1512-1514；
　　
　　2Rebound1519Stop loss without breaking short4US dollars, look at the target1507-1505；
　　
　　盘间行情实时变化具体操作策略以周鸿金指导实盘为准，添加薇-Core:zh66646获取实时策略及免费解ㄒ。
　　
　　crude oilTrend analysis:
　　
　　国际经贸局势的乐观情绪有所消退，之前EIA原油库存增加，美国多个经济数据不佳，需求担忧再次升温，这对油价拖累明显，技术面短线看空信号有所增强；但还需留意中美经贸团队新一轮通话的相关情况。
　　
From a daily perspective, it fluctuates;MACD红色柱萎缩，KDJDead fork,5Daily moving average underpass10日均线死叉，短线偏向震荡下行，初步支撑在隔夜低点53.71Nearby,10month21日低点支撑52.85Nearby, the Bollinger Line's lower track supports51.58附近。鸿ㅣ金认为由于目前油价还没有完全跌破50.99以来的短线上涨趋势线，也需要提防多头的反扑，上方5Daily moving average resistance54.92Nearby,100Daily moving average resistance55.92附近，若能回升至该位置上方，则增加后市看涨信号。
　　
　　4小时来看，布林线轨道向下开口，MACDDead fork,KDJ死叉，布林线下轨53.78目前为油价提供支持，关注3268735920若失守该位置则下行通道将再次打开，上方初步阻力在布林线中轨55.22附近，若意外收复该位置则削弱短线看空信号，综合来看，顶破54.92前，短线偏向震荡下行；今日晚间操作思路上周鸿金个人建议高空为主，低多为辅；
　　
　　上方关注阻力：54.92；55.92；57.25；
　　
Pay attention to support below:53.71；52.85；52.39；

　　

Suggestions for crude oil operation:
　　
　　1Rebound54.9Stop loss without breaking short0.5US dollars, look at the target53.9-53.7；
　　
　　2Callback53.7Do not break long, stop loss0.5US dollars, look at the target54.6-54.8；
　　
　　盘间行情实时变化具体操作策略以周鸿金指导实盘为准，添加薇-Core:zh66646获取实时策略及免费解ㄒ。
　　
　　1Special reminder: Investors need to recognize that for ordinary investors, most of the time they should focus on watching and waiting patiently for the best opportunity to sell, and avoiding frequent trading is one of the recognized winning secrets. Do not attempt to seize all fluctuations, nor expect to grasp every segment of the market. Judging the market situation is only a part of trading. Investors also need to have a reverence for the market, remember trading discipline, and strictly control their positions to reduce greed, overcome fear, and try to maintain a calm mind when trading.
　　
　　2Disclaimer: The above analysis only represents the author's personal opinion and does not constitute specific operations. The article has a lag effect, and based on this, profit and loss are the responsibility of the author. Investment is risky, and caution should be exercised when entering the market.
　　
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