金朝论市：10.11黄金失守千五原油冲击54；黄金原油走势分析策略

　　金朝论市：10.11gold失守千五crude oilImpact54；黄金原油走势分析策略


　　周四因国际经贸局势的改善使得市场风险偏好大幅回落，黄金一度出现近18美元的跌幅。与此同时尽管美国CPI数据略不及预期，但是核心通胀维持在2.4%。而多名美联储官员的措辞也略微转鹰，降低了市场的降息预期。加上英国脱欧局势也出现重大利好，也使得避险情绪降温。短时间而言市场将继续关注国际经贸局势进展，日内关注德国CPI数据和美联储官员罗森格伦讲话。美国WTI11Monthly crude oilfutures电子盘价格10month10Daily closing up1.27USD, increase2.41%Report53.86dollar/桶。周四油价涨逾2%Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries(OPEC)暗示，为了平衡油市，所有的选项都在考虑范围，并将在12月就明年的供应做出决定。

Gold trend analysis:


　　黄金昨日冲高回落，早盘急涨至1517附近承压震荡，亚盘维持在此位之下整理，过渡至欧美盘时段上探始终未突破早盘高点，最终美盘时段承压走跌，由于投资者对经贸前景和英国可能与欧盟达成脱欧协议的乐观人气升温。非美货币大涨。黄金与美元局部同跌。美元下挫收低。黄金同样下挫至1490低位，最终收盘在1500下方。日图收盘中阴线。


　　反复拉锯是本周的主格调，日图方面：伴随着小阳线反弹收复，再中阴线回落。今日周线收官，重新回到了千五关口下方。日图K线结构震荡偏空，毕竟收在了低位。而日线布林道的宽幅震荡区间下轨支撑还在1475.离下轨还有一定距离，若是能够延续弱势收盘，短线也不排除进一步回落下轨寻求支撑。同理也同样存在反弹收复失地的可能，亚盘技术面看上去弱势，如果欧盘不破低走弱。美元技术面偏空，消化了消息面的影响后，终究要回归技术面的反向。美元弱势下跌，终究还是会限制金价下行空间。短线仍关注强弱延续。


Short line4小时从布林道上轨摔到接近下轨轻微震荡。布林道暂时还是平行收口当中，但是K线形态的下挫带动均线下压。K线形态看上去还是偏空一些。如果弱势的话，亚盘反弹不能过高，且欧盘时段要破低延续走弱，否则反弹高了就会转为震荡，昨晚尾盘反弹的最后一个高点在1499.50.此位是强弱分界点，亚盘反弹先在此位之下看空一次，如若上破1500则调整思路重新看震荡，再次操作就要等到美盘时段。重点是看欧盘能否延续弱势，在不上破1500的前提下，蓄势下破1490，弱势才能延续。综合来看，今日操作思路上金朝个人建议高沽低渣即可；


Focus on resistance above:1501.69；1504.95；1510.00；


Pay attention to support below:1491.23；1489.59；1487.04；


Suggestions for Gold Operations:


　　1Callback1489Do not break long, stop loss4US dollars, look at the target1498-1500；


　　2Rebound1505Stop loss without breaking short4US dollars, look at the target1496-1494；

Analysis of crude oil trend:


　　原油昨日下探回升收高，本周连续的下探不破低。守住此前低点51.0上方震荡收盘。昨日反弹收在了高位。日线在连续星线整理后终究收成了阳线。且逼近54.0关口。收盘站上了10日线，日图有轻微止跌修正迹象。在第三个交易日转阴后，昨日没能延续弱势破低，反倒是反弹收复收在高位。日图看反弹。4小时二次下探启稳。拉动均线指标拐头向上形成支撑。小时图也走出一波反弹。短线结构震荡偏多。但日线还是下行中的反弹修正。只是轻微止跌。综合来看，今日操作思路上金朝个人建议低多为主，高空为辅；


Focus on resistance above:54.00；54.84；55.55；


Pay attention to support below:53.17；52.04；50.99；


Suggestions for crude oil operation:


　　1Callback52.0Do not break long, stop loss0.5US dollars, look at the target53.8-54.0；


　　2Rebound54.8Stop loss without breaking short0.5US dollars, look at the target53.4-53.2；


　　1Special reminder: Investors need to recognize that for ordinary investors, most of the time they should focus on watching and waiting patiently for the best opportunity to sell, and avoiding frequent trading is one of the recognized winning secrets. Do not attempt to seize all fluctuations, nor expect to grasp every segment of the market. Judging the market situation is only a part of trading. Investors also need to have a reverence for the market, remember trading discipline, and strictly control their positions to reduce greed, overcome fear, and try to maintain a calm mind when trading.


　　2Disclaimer: The above analysis only represents the author's personal opinion and does not constitute specific operations. The article has a lag effect, and based on this, profit and loss are the responsibility of the author. Investment is risky, and caution should be exercised when entering the market.
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　　金朝分析团队投资风险管控:


　　①、要有止损，哪怕是大止损，止损一定是对的，错了也是对，不止损是错的，对了也错，无条件止损。


　　②、亏损不加仓，比如在你建仓的范围内，如果错了，不要盲目加仓，不要侥幸降低成本，选择优势点位下单，如果方向错，越加越亏，这样让自己直接暴露在风险中（若方向正确但进场点位不佳，加仓是可取的，但同样需要方法，不可盲目行情波动一个点就加仓）。


　　③、当日止损，若连续亏损三个单，当天不交易。


　　④、仓位要轻，最好控制在10%以内的仓位。


　　⑤、一段时间内仓位保持一致，不要一会仓过多，一会仓过轻，保持一致的连贯性。


　　金朝温馨提示：


Investment is not speculation. Seize the right moment, refuse blindness, take a break if there is no time, and cherish every drop of blood and sweat you earn! Investment carries risks, so we need to be cautious when entering the market, grasp the most accurate trend, and make our investments more rational.


Full guidance time: early7：00In the early morning of the next day2：00(Never stopping on weekends, available for consultation at any time))


　　全方位指导老师：金朝论市分析团队


　　撰稿人：金朝论市


　　指导热线：jz1498


Author's message: May you and I start with words, adapt to character, fall into technical difficulties, persist in kindness, and finally have character.