美联储释放矛盾信号，机构唱多黄金后市

英镑遭脱欧泥潭拖累，隔夜延续低位运行(GBP/USD)

技术面：英镑兑美元上一交易日震幅达93Points, closing down0.07%。 Daily lineBOLL(20)趋于开口，布林中轨趋于下行，汇价持续承压于中轨下方；日线MA5,10,20Construct multi period dead fork resonance,MA5,10Double track trend downward, exchange rate under pressureMA5Below; Daily lineMACD(12,26,9)阴柱势能无明显增减；日线RSI(14)to39-40一线运行，运行斜率较大趋于走高。英镑多空博弈痕迹明显，但空头稍占优势。上方阻力关注布林中轨位置，下方支撑关注1.2200，若突破支撑较易引发惯性下跌。

基本面：英国央行昨日再度警告无协议脱欧危害：若无协议脱欧发生，英国面临经济出现剧变的风险；脱欧不确定性萦绕，叠加全球经济增速疲软，英国经济承压；若无协议脱欧，边境金融服务行业可能会存在分歧，欧盟受到的影响最大。昨日欧盘时段有市场消息称：欧盟准备好在英国脱欧谈判中作出重大让步，此消息助力英镑兑美元GBP/USD短线上扬近70点。但全部涨幅随后遭吞没。欧盟首席脱欧谈判官巴尼耶告知媒体，认为达成脱欧协议非常困难，但仍是可能的。

美联储释放矛盾信号，欧元五探中轨位置(EUR/USD)

技术面：欧元兑美元上一交易日震幅达35Individual points, closing up0.22%。 Daily lineBOLL(20)趋于收口，布林中轨趋于下行，汇价持续于中轨上方运行；日线MA5,10构金叉，MA5稍趋走平，汇价运行于MA5上方；日线MACD(12,26,9)阳柱势能无明显增减；日线RSI(14)to49-50一线运行，运行斜率较小趋于走平。上下震荡区间关注如下图所示蓝色趋势线所构筑的收敛三角形通道，同时密切关注近2-3个交易日对布林中轨的破位状况。

基本面：美联储纪要显示，与会者普遍认为，自7月会议以来，经济活动前景的下行风险有所增加，官员们对经济对贸易和全球经济疲软更加担忧；尽管经济基本面并不乐观，部分美联储官员还是对三度降息有些怀疑。会议纪要显示，几名委员暗示美联储应该阐明何时结束宽松、何时结束这种为应对贸易不确定性而进行的政策利率水平调整。德意志银行分析认为，交易员正加大美联储本月降息的预期，如果市场对降息的预期仍在升温，届时美元指数的跌幅可能达1%。

避险情绪推升金价，gold重返千五上方(XAU/USD)

技术面：黄金上一交易日震幅达172Individual points, closing up0.18%，重返千五关口上方。日线BOLL(20)布林中轨趋于上行，金价持续于中轨上方运行；日线MA5,10构金叉，MA5,10双线趋于上行，金价运行于MA5上方；日线MACD(12,26,9)DIFFOnline threadingDEA构金叉，阳柱势能较前一交易日缩减；日线RSI(14)to51-52一线运行，运行斜率较大趋于下行。上方阻力观察趋势线阻力，下方支撑关注如下图所示23.6%Callback bit1490frontline.

基本面：恐慌指数VIX指数上一交易日收跌6.52%, closing on18.64； Forward looking gold price indicator Barrick Gold Company(NYSE:ABX)股价上一交易日收跌1.05%, closing on17.87。尽管昨日全球主要股市情绪出现回暖，但土叙军事行动引发金价上行。全球黄金ETF的持仓量连续17天增长，创下2009年以来最长的资金持续流入。花旗集团在一份报告中预测，资金将继续涌入黄金，并坚持其在未来六至十二个月内反弹至每盎司1700美元的预期。中信证券10日研报指出，维持黄金行业“强于大市”评级，年底前金价有望达到1600dollar/ounce.

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