美元无视利空走高，英镑再陷脱欧泥潭

　　英欧双方互相指责，脱欧泥潭吞噬英镑(GBP/USD)
　　
Technical aspect:英镑兑美元上一交易日震幅达107Points, closing down0.55%。 Daily lineBOLL(20)The Bolin middle track tends to decline, and the exchange rate is close to the Bolin lower track; Daily lineMA5,10构金叉，MA5,10Double track trend downward, exchange rate under pressureMA5Below; Daily lineMACD(12,26,9)阴柱势能较前一交易日增大；日线RSI(14)to38-39一线运行，运行斜率较大趋于下行。指标全面利空，英镑很有可能在破位支撑后出现惯性下跌扩大跌幅。上方关注布林中轨位置，下方关注1.2200Support.
　　
Fundamentals:along with10month31日临近，英国与欧盟的谈判一筹莫展，越来越多机构认为双方可能最终无法达成脱欧协议。昨日，双方就此加大火力、互相指责。英国责怪德国总理默克尔提出的“北爱尔兰必须留在关税联盟之内”造成了当前基本无法达成协议的局面，并指责此前欧盟不愿意就英国提出的新脱欧方案进行接触。欧盟官员认为，英国政府的策略，是将推迟或无协议脱欧的责任推卸到欧盟身上。荷兰国际银行：预测的基准情形仍为英国将延迟脱欧，并于11月底或12月初举行大选；这一情形下，预计英镑兑美元GBP/USD将跌至1.20下方，欧元兑英镑EUR/GBP或重新测试0.93Horizontal.

　　

  美元无视利空走高，欧元难破多空分水岭(EUR/USD)
　　
Technical aspect:The previous trading day saw a significant fluctuation in the euro against the US dollar55Points, closing down0.11%。 Daily lineBOLL(20)趋于收口，布林中轨趋于下行，汇价隔夜一度上破中轨后回落，收于中轨下方，汇价连续第四日测试中轨未破，后市仍可将布林中轨的有效破位（连续两个交易日收于中轨上方）视作反转信号；日线MA5,10构金叉，MA5,10双线稍趋走平；日线MACD(12,26,9)阳柱势能较前一交易日缩减；日线RSI(14)to43-44一线运行，运行斜率较大趋于下行。上方阻力关注布林中轨位置，下方支撑关注1.0925。
　　
Fundamentals:机构评论称，这或将给予美联储本月再次降息的空间，以求限制贸易局势和全球经济增速放缓导致对经济增速的拖累。今晨，美联储主席鲍威尔称，为了回应融资问题，美联储将很快开始扩大资产负债表；经济持续扩张、劳动力市场强劲、通胀接近2%的目标是最可能出现的前景。鲍威尔的讲话进一步夯实了美联储将在10月会议上扩表的预期，但其对于未来经济、通胀、就业的预期相对乐观。鲍威尔发言后，美元指数小幅下挫，旋即回升。

　　

  恐慌指数隔夜飙涨，小摩看好日元避险价值(USD/JPY)
　　
Technical aspect:goldThe previous trading day's amplitude reached60Individual points, closing up0.09%，全周创3月来最差单周表现。日线BOLL(20)趋于收口，布林中轨趋于下行，金价持续承压于中轨下方；日线MA5,10构死叉，MA5趋于下行，金价承压于MA5Below; Daily lineMACD(12,26,9)DIFFOffline threadingDEA构死叉，阴柱势能较前一交易日增大；日线RSI(14)to46-47一线运行，运行斜率较小趋于走平。上方阻力关注布林中轨位置，下方支撑关注如下图所示AB段23.6%Retreat position1489。
　　
Fundamentals:Panic indexVIX指数上一交易日收涨13.55%, closing on20.28。美股周二低开低走，三大stock market index终收跌逾1%；欧洲股市亦全线下跌，德国DAXIndex, FTSE UK100Index, FranceCAC40指数等欧洲主要股指跌幅均超1%。避险情绪升温助力日元走强。摩根大通：日元的实际有效汇率比其20年平均水平低了15％，这使其比美元和瑞士法郎等其他避险货币更具吸引力；在美国经济放缓的迹象以及贸易摩擦迟迟未决的影响下，日元是成本最低的全球衰退对冲货币。

　　

　　
　　
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