欧元区投资者信心萎靡，衍生品市场看好英镑

　　协议谈判迫在眉睫，市场看好英镑短线(GBP/USD)
　　
Technical aspect:英镑兑美元上一交易日震幅达53Points, closing down0.38%。 Daily lineBOLL(20)布林中轨趋于下行，汇价持续承压于中轨下方；日线MA5,10构金叉，MA5,10双线稍趋走平，汇价承压于MA5Below; Daily lineMACD(12,26,9)The potential energy of the Yin column has decreased compared to the previous trading day; Daily lineRSI(14)to45-46Frontline operation, with a smaller operating slope tending to rise. Attention to resistance above1.2375Below support attention1.2200。
　　
Fundamentals:高盛在一份研报中表示，倾向于做多英镑兑美元GBP/USD，目标价在1.30；英国在多个问题上立场的转变及英国多党为防止无协议脱欧做出的努力，使得英镑的风险分布与一个月以前相比已经有了很大的改善；与无协议脱欧相比，英国进行提前大选的可能性更高。2周期英镑兑美元风险逆转指标（Risk Reversal）创出5月以来最高水平，表明投资者预期英国将延迟脱欧，从而短暂缓解压力。但需注意2周期风险逆转指标仍远低于今年以来的高点，目前市场仅是谨慎乐观。

　　

   欧元区信心萎靡，欧元承压中轨下方(EUR/USD)
　　
Technical aspect:The previous trading day saw a significant fluctuation in the euro against the US dollar39Points, closing down0.11%。 Daily lineBOLL(20)趋于收口，布林中轨趋于下行，汇价连续三个交易日于布林中轨附近交投，未见破位迹象；日线MA5,10构金叉，MA5稍趋走平；日线MACD(12,26,9)阳柱势能较前一交易日增大；日线RSI(14)to46-47一线运行，运行斜率较小趋于走平。上方阻力布林中轨得失，若上破布林中轨可看向下方趋势线位置，下方支撑关注1.0925。
　　
Fundamentals:富国银行维持欧洲央行12月放松货币政策的预期，包括降低关键市场利率降低和债券收益率；预计欧元区经济增速缓慢，叠加欧洲央行扩大宽松政策，可能会进一步打压欧元；长期来看，预计欧元兑美元将上行，然而这一观点更多是基于美国经济会进一步放缓，而不是欧元区经济复苏。欧元区10monthSentix投资者信心指数报-16.8。机构评论称，由于欧洲央行采取的财政刺激措施未能缓解市场有关经济衰退的担忧，欧元区10monthSentix投资者信心指数跌至六年多以来的最低水平。

　　

   gold多空博弈激烈，金价重回千五下方(XAU/USD)
　　
Technical aspect:黄金上一交易日震幅达213Points, closing down1.06%。 Daily lineBOLL(20)布林中轨趋于下行，金价持续承压于中轨下方；日线MA5,10构金叉，MA5,10双线趋于下行，金价承压于MA5Below; Daily lineMACD(12,26,9)阴柱势能较小，势能较前一交易日增大；日线RSI(14)to46-47一线运行，运行斜率较小趋于走平。上方阻力观察1520位置，下方支撑关注如下图所示23.6%Callback bit1490frontline.
　　
Fundamentals:Panic indexVIX指数上一交易日收涨4.81%, closing on17.86； Forward looking gold price indicator Barrick Gold Company(NYSE:ABX)股价上一交易日收跌0.73%, closing on17.62。据世界黄金协会的统计，从今年年初至9月初全球各国央行的净购金量已超过400吨，为自2010年央行开始成为黄金净买家以来的最高年度累计水平。渣打银行认为，各国央行不断增加黄金购买量的行为，成功使得黄金价格出现了一个新的底部。目前黄金市场的底部将更接近1450dollar/盎司。但另有机构认为，央行的“买金行动”的周期过长，不适合用来作为普通投资者的参考依据。

　　

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