扛单解套】10.7黄金原油开盘暴涨暴跌后市如何操作及走势分析

　　只有启程，才会到达理想和目的地，只有拼搏，才会获得辉煌的成功。经历过地狱般的折磨，才有征服天堂的力量。生活不是等待风暴过去，而是学会在风雨中翩翩起舞。每一个精彩的结局，都有一个不为人知的困苦过程。既想得到理想的结果，而又不愿意参与困苦的过程，就是妄想和贪心，而一个人不能控制自己的贪欲，也不能理智的对待梦想，最终只能一败涂地。很多人认为交易很难，获利更难，殊不知初入市场便想称王称霸，便想一劳永逸；不但没有对市场的敬畏之心，反而无限放大的自己的贪心。最终只会被陷阱所诱惑，被市场所戏弄，带来的不是获利的喜悦，而是无限的恐惧。所以，对于交易，静心最重要，懂得成长能带来价值比急功近利好一百倍，乱了方寸的心，是根本不可能做好交易的。
　　
　　表面的浮华难以掩盖背后的虚幻，短线的波动难以改变长线的趋势，陷阱的表面往往都具有其光鲜的本质，而智慧的眼睛却从来不曾被蒙蔽。交易的最高境界是空仓，而心态的最高境界就是忍耐。没有最好的行情，只有最好的思路，成功者眼见之处，皆是机会，而失败者，所到之处皆感满目疮痍，不是世界不同，而是心态不同，只要觉悟，任何时候都不晚，只要前进，坎坷终将变成坦途，而要退缩，纵使有一千个成功的方法，也不能拯救你的前途。
　　
　　————近期有哪些消息面影响goldcrude oil走势？后市该如何布局？
　　
United States9Monthly increase in non agricultural employment population13.60万，不及预期的14.50万，但前值从13万上修为16.8Ten thousand. U.S.A9月平均小时工资年率实际录得2.90%，较前值和预期值大幅下降0.3个百分点；美国9月失业率创1969年以来最低记录的3.50%，较前值和预期值下降0.2个百分点。美国劳工部表示，过去三个月，平均新增非农就业人数为15.7Ten thousand.9月专业、商业服务、医疗保健就业人数录得增加。非农发布后，联邦基金利率futures显示对2019年政策宽松的押注几乎未变。美国9月季调后非农就业报告，缓解了金融市场对经济放缓至衰退边缘的担忧。平均时薪增速保持不变，制造业就业人数为六个月来首次下降，零售业继续裁员。尽管如此，经济学家预计，鉴于贸易政策的不确定性，美联储年内至少再降息一次。
　　
US Energy Information Administration(EIA)最新产量数据显示，受钻井数持续减少的影响，美国7月原油产量减少至118110000 barrels/日，从4月的纪录高位121310000 barrels/日继续下滑。EIA之前曾预测称，2019年美国原油产量料将增至123610000 barrels/日，这将远超2018年日均1096万桶的年度纪录。认为2019年美国石油活跃钻井数将录得三年来首次下跌。相关数据显示，美国石油活跃钻井数2018年共增加138Seat,2017年共增加222座，而2016年则减少11Seat.
　　
　　张晨雷认为：最新的就业数据“并不十分令人震惊”，不会强化美联储在本月会议上降息的动机。数据“支持美元，对美联储而言相对中性。对先前非农就业数据的修正看起来不错，并且数据“实际上比预期要好，尤其是之前的ADP数据发布之后”。虽然数据打压了“美元即将下行”的观点，但也没有强劲到足以推动美元回到近期高点。这种数据不足以让人确信会促使美联储在10Monthly interest rate reduction25个基点，美联储仍然不得不更深入地研究以证明降息的合理性。
　　
　　————国际黄金行情走势分析
　　
　　现货黄金日线来看，虽为三连阳，可昨日却收出长上影线形态，这说明多头遇到的压制越来越强，而尾盘金价回落到1512之下，更是表明行情存在诱多行为，或许目前5Daily moving average at1493附近呈上扬形态有利多头，但10日均线依旧保持下行，其它各周期指标也未形成多头排列，加之布林带整体向上力度不强，KDJ死叉，随机指标温和走高，中的快线率先触及80轴后，向下拐头意愿强烈，MACD背离死叉，绿色能量柱缩量，指标则继续维持下行放量形态，所以，日线整体可期支撑下破且延伸。
　　
Spot gold4小时来看，自周二盘金价反弹以来，一直处于短期均线上方运行，并带动短期均线向上延伸，当前分别于1504and1508构成短期支撑，按理说应当在支撑之上顺势看涨，但是，通过仔细观察可以发现，目前短期均线有向下拐头的迹象，其它各周期指标也存在转向空头排列的意愿，再加之布林带整体上行势能衰竭，MACD金叉，红色能量柱缩减KDJ死叉，随机指标向下放量明显，因此4小时级别整体应看冲高回落走势。综合来看，操作思路上张晨雷个人建议回调做多为主，反弹高空为辅，上方短期重点关注1515-1517Frontline resistance, short-term focus below1494-1496一线支撑。如果有仓位上套单锁单的朋友，请及时与我联系添加薇-corezc4867实时免费解套
　　
　　————国际原油行情走势分析
　　
　　一系列经济数据的疲软表现进一步加重了市场对原油需求前景的忧虑，不过美国石油钻井数不断下降部分限制了油价的跌幅。美国WTICrude oil futures prices hit their lowest point during trading52.04dollar/Barrel, Brent crude oil futures hit their lowest point in the session57.67dollar/桶。美国油服公司贝克休斯周五(10month4day)According to published data, as of10month4During the current week, the number of active oil wells in the United States decreased3Seat to710座，连续七周录得下滑且刷新2017year5月来低位。已经连续10个月录得减少，为历史上最长连续下降月数。张晨雷认为，世界不可能联合起来制止伊朗，原油可能会跳升至“难以想象的高位”。
　　
　　从技术面看，原油价格跌至52.40美元以下，但最终逆转，以看涨影线形态收盘。多头进一步将原油价格推高至前一天的高点之上。从通道底部的反弹正在进行中，
　　
　　预期油价将瞄准通道顶部或54.50美元。如果行情需要进行中线级别的回升，那么得需要两个条件，一是基本面方面出现利多，目前来看中东局势缓和，出现利多可能性不是很大；二是技术上需要在低位进行一定周期的震荡消化磨合，短线低位横盘将酝酿多头大反攻。综合来看，操作思路上张晨雷个人建议以回调做多为主，反弹高空为辅，上方短期重点关注53.8-54.0Frontline resistance, short-term focus below51.8-52.0一线支撑。更多实时操作建议张晨雷（zc4867）实盘中会给出实时提示，对行情把握不稳或被套的朋友可以咨询张晨雷进行探讨。
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　　————晨雷寄语
　　
Covering orders is a bad habit, it's a disease, it needs to be treated! Strictly follow the operating discipline when making orders, follow the trend, and enter with a stop loss! Leave the wrong order in a timely manner to prevent repeated mistakes! After being covered, don't panic and lose your composure. You must adjust your mindset, as it is crucial at this time. The road to investment is long, we need to learn to be indifferent. The market is often filled with contradictions between technology and news, requiring less talk and more listening. No matter how hard you put in today, tomorrow's fallen leaves will still drift down. The market is inherently unpredictable, and impermanence is a norm in the capital market. Learn to get used to it.KThe rise and fall of the line quickly pass by with the ticking sound of the clock. You are not Superman, you will be tired, you will feel pain, you will cry, you will be sad, you will be helpless, you will be powerless. But you need to understand yourself like this. Don't be too demanding, let alone compromise easily. Work harder, plan and do transactions step by step, live up to your true colors, and believe that there will always be a gust of wind that blows away all your troubles. People with multiple hearts are destined to live hard because they are too easily influenced by the emotions brought by the market.
　　
Don't always think that the market has let you down. In this market, no one lives easier than anyone else. Trading is simple but charming;Often, many market trends are like this, and when you deliberately pursue them, they will run very fast;When you abandon superficial mundane thoughts, focus on executing every market trend for strategy and planning, some profits can be easily obtained. Wherever your attention is, the results are there. The more you express, the less you lack. When your mindset and execution continue to improve, money is just a gift. Attitude determines hardship and joy, concept determines success and failure, and the simpler a person is, the more peaceful their trading becomes. Many times, you would rather be killed in battle against the tide than reflect on yourself. A drop of ink can stain a glass of water, but it is difficult to muddy a river because a generous heart can accommodate it;One sentence can ruin a temporary mood, but it is difficult to determine a person's life, because fate is in one's own hands;An accident can make your footsteps heavy and difficult to erode your persistent pursuit, because you are "alive" in the market, and because you are strong, the road is ahead. Don't easily stop walking.
　　
Note: The above analysis is for reference only, and the market is constantly changing. When making an order, be sure to bring a stop loss! Investment carries risks, so be cautious when entering the industry!
　　
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