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Perplexinggold总是充满着惊喜和变故,而很多人总在扑朔迷离的行情中迷失方向,在这个涨涨跌跌的市场,坚定自己的思路是一件很难的事情,操作交易,定当控制好风险,坚定自己的思路,错了及时止损,对了坚持持有到目标附近,不要人云亦云,畏惧出错,从而导致思路混乱,操作变形。我叫李鼎缘,任何市场也都是在遵循自然法则;适者生存优胜劣汰,一想二干三成功,一等二看三落空;想是问题,做是答案;输在犹豫,赢在行动!
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接下来的一周,经济数据相对较多,其中ISMmanufacturingPMIData and the United States9月份非农就业报告最值得关注,事件方面,澳洲联储将公布利率决议、美联储主席鲍威尔等官员的讲话需要重点关注。由于美国8monthPCE表现好于7月,美联储年内再次降息预期已经有所降温;如果下周美国非农就业数据表现乐观,有望帮助美元顶破100整数大关,现货黄金则可能会迎来瀑布式的下跌。
周四亚洲时段,澳大利亚统计局将公布8月份进出口数据,投资者需要简单予以留意。周四欧洲时段,英国将公布9monthMarkitService industryPMI, previous value is50.6Market expectations are50.3,由于服务业在英国的经济中占比比较大,所以该数据对英镑的影响相对较大,需要予以关注。周四需要重点关注的是美国8月份工厂订单数据和9monthISMNon manufacturingPMI数据,目前市场预期都并不乐观,在数据出炉前,可能会对美元产生一下拖累;但若数据意外好于预期,则有望给美元提供上涨动能。
周五将迎来这一周的两场压轴大戏,第一场是美国9月份非农就业报告,目前市场预期新增非农就业人数为14万人,失业率将维持在3.7%的历史较低位置,薪资增速年率将维持在3.2%,整体预期略微好于前值,数据出炉前偏向给美元提供支撑,并压制金价和多数非美货币。相对而言,美国就业市场比较稳健,这可能会进一步打压美联储年内进一步降息的预期;如果非农数据好于预期,则有望给美元提供上涨动能。
第二场大戏,则是美联储主席鲍威尔的讲话,这将是在PCE和就业数据出炉后的讲话,美联储主席鲍威尔在北京时间9month20日凌晨利率决议后的新闻发布会上曾强调未来的货币政策将观察经济数据的表现;周五的讲话将为美联储年内进一步的货币政策提供较好的参考;投资者需要密切关注市场预期的变化。目前而言,鲍威尔讲话偏向鹰派的可能性略高,这也有望给美元提供支撑,令金价和多数非美货币面临较大的下行风险、此外,对于美联储副主席克拉里达和波士顿联储主席罗森格伦的讲话,投资者也需要予以关注,这两位官员也都是美联储票委。
Gold trend analysis:
Wednesday(10month2day)在弱于预期的ADP就业数据公布后,美元跟随美股和美债下跌,futures定价显示美联储本月将降息约21个基点;G-10货币中,避险货币表现分化,金价大幅飙升,现货黄金刷新本周高点至1505.19dollar/盎司,疲弱的美国经济数据提高了市场对美联储再次降息的预期,此外欧美股市大跌也提振了黄金的避险需求。
4小时线来看,倒V上行;目前6Lianyang,MACDandKDJ金叉运行,短期均线依然对金价形成支撑,后市下行风险减弱,继续关注1492附近支撑,若失守该支撑,则可能会进一步跌向1482Nearby, then100The daily moving average is supported by1500.70附近;此外,7month19Daily high point1453.09附近也存在一定的支撑。上方5The daily moving average is supported by1497Nearby,10Daily moving average and20The daily moving averages are all within1488-1482附近,若意外跌破该支撑,则增加短线看跌信号。此外,9month18Daily low point1483.50附近也分别存在一些支撑。
1Rebound to1507-1510Near empty, stop loss1514, Objective1502-1497nearby
2Callback to1492-1495Nearby, stop loss1488, Objective1498-1505nearby
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