Zhou Hongjin:10.1美元走强黄金承压还会涨吗？原油黄金走势行情分析及策略

　　9month30日美元指数创2017year5New high since the beginning of the month99.46，回购利率走高，以及月末和季末仓位调整的支撑；欧元兑美元跌至两年半来最低，对欧元区经济增长的担忧令欧元持续承压。金价大跌，现货gold一度较日高回落近35USD, creating8month6Recently, it has reached a new low1464.55dollar/盎司。美油跌逾3%，创去年末以来最差季度表现，因市场对全球经济放缓的担忧盖过了对沙特关键能源设施遭袭击的影响。

　　

Gold trend analysis:

　　

　　周一在美元劲升的作用下，贵金属全线大幅下挫，铂金急挫逾5%，黄金亦下跌2%，较日高回落逾30USD, creating8month6Recently, it has reached a new low1464.55dollar/Ounces;

　　

　　技术面看，日线图MACDDead fork,KDJ死叉，黄金暂时已经跌破1480美元区域的重要水平支撑位。该支持位也是头肩顶颈线所在位，跌破这一点位，将被视为熊市交易者的一个关键触发点，初步目标参考1266-1557Upward trend38.2%Retreat position1446.21附近，激进目标看下8month1Daily low point1400附近。布林线下轨支撑目前在1467.1Nearby. Preliminary resistance above60Daily moving average1482.46Near.5Daily moving average at1490.3Nearby;10Daily moving average at1501.57附近，在收复该位置前，后市偏向震荡下行；布林线中轨阻力在1510.4附近，关注3268735920若意外收复该位置，则削弱后市看空信号。综合来看，今日操作思路上周鸿金个人建议高空为主，低多为辅；

　　

Focus on resistance above:1482.46；1490.3；1500.00；

　　

Pay attention to support below:1467.10；1464.55；1460.00；

　　

Suggestions for Gold Operations:

　　

　　1Rebound1482Stop loss without breaking short4US dollars, look at the target1470-1468；

　　

　　2Callback1465Do not break long, stop loss4US dollars, look at the target1478-1480；

　　

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　　crude oilTrend analysis:

　　

　　美油跌逾3%，创去年末以来最差季度表现，因市场对全球经济放缓的担忧盖过了对沙特关键能源设施遭袭击的影响。沙特阿美的日产量已经恢复到超过990万桶，这个快于预期的时间表加上油价随后的下跌，凸显投资者因经济增长放缓和贸易摩擦而对石油需求疲软的关注。

　　

Technically speaking, the daily chartMACDDead fork,KDJ死叉，油价承压于布林线中轨下方，后市偏向震荡下行，目标参考布林线下轨52.86Nearby support,9month3Daily low point support at52.84附近，鸿|金认为若失守该支撑，则可能会进一步跌向8month7Daily low point50.52附近。上方布林线中轨阻力在56.57nearby(near200Daily moving average)，5Daily moving average at55.58Nearby,10Daily moving average resistance56.85Nearby, due to50.52以来上涨趋势线仍给油价提供支撑，关注3268735920若意外收复10日均线，则削弱后市看空信号。综合来看，收复56.57前，后市偏向震荡下行；所以今日操作思路上周鸿金个人建议高空为主，低多为辅；

　　

Focus on resistance above:55.58；56.57；57.40；

　　

Pay attention to support below:54.00；52.86；51.94；

　　

Suggestions for crude oil operation:

　　

　　1Rebound55.6Stop loss without breaking short0.5US dollars, look at the target54.8-54.6；

　　

　　2Callback52.8Do not break long, stop loss0.5US dollars, look at the target55.3-55.5；

　　

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　　1Special reminder: Investors need to recognize that for ordinary investors, most of the time they should focus on watching and waiting patiently for the best opportunity to sell, and avoiding frequent trading is one of the recognized winning secrets. Do not attempt to seize all fluctuations, nor expect to grasp every segment of the market. Judging the market situation is only a part of trading. Investors also need to have a reverence for the market, remember trading discipline, and strictly control their positions to reduce greed, overcome fear, and try to maintain a calm mind when trading.

　　

　　2Disclaimer: The above analysis only represents the author's personal opinion and does not constitute specific operations. The article has a lag effect, and based on this, profit and loss are the responsibility of the author. Investment is risky, and caution should be exercised when entering the market.

　　

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　　鸿金寄语-----

　　

　　投资交易如同做人，选择大于努力，不论是交易方向的选择，投资方法的选择，还是老师的选择都至关重要，不能带你盈利的都是夸夸其谈，诚恳走一生，虚情假意将永远被唾弃，是金子总会发光，鱼龙混杂的市场，吹嘘得来的认可，总会原形毕露，唯有坚持写出对投资者有用的分析，能让投资者少走点弯路，学到技巧与知识，少错一单，那么我相信日久见人心。

　　

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