伦敦金原油下周操作建议及行情走势分析

　　为什么别人赚了钱，自己却在一直亏钱。什么原因？三分分析，七分操作，再准确的，离不好良好的执行力。好的投资不但需要正确的市场分析，而且需要科学的风险管理。正确的心理控制。这三者之间心理控制是最重要的，其次是风险管理，再其次才是分析技能。但是常波老师接触的90%以上的投资朋友看来，以为分析是最重要的，而根本不认识风险管理的重要性，更不知道心理控制的极端重要性，正如这么一句话“心态决定一切”。

　　crude oil近期趋势分析及操作建议

Baker Hughes, an American oil service company(Baker Hughes)Friday(9month27day)According to published data, as of9month27During the current week, the number of active oil wells in the United States decreased6Seat to713座，连续六周录得下滑且触及2017year5月来新低。截止8月底已经连续10个月录得减少，为历史上最长连续下降月数。去年同期为863座。美国石油活跃钻井9月累计减少29座，第三季度累计减少80Zuo, Chuang2016年第一季度来最大季度降幅。而8月曾减少34Zuo, Chuang2019year3月来最大降幅，7月则累计减少了17座。更多数据显示，今年第二季度美国石油活跃钻井数累计减少23座。第一季度则减少69Seat2016年第一季度以来最大降幅，当时减少了164座。美国页岩油产商预期称，2019年将会削减钻探活动，因油价去年下跌约25%, for2015以来首次全年下跌。

　　富常波认为2019年美国石油活跃钻井数将录得三年来首次下跌。本周美原油料创出10周最大单周跌幅。此外近期美元的持续走强也使得非美货币购买原油的成本上升，也部分抑制了消费需求。相关数据显示，美国石油活跃钻井数2018年共增加138Seat,2017年共增加222座，而2016年则减少11座。美国能源信息署(EIA)最新产量数据显示，美国5月原油产量减少至121110000 barrels/日，从4月的纪录高位121310000 barrels/日小幅下滑。EIA之前曾预测称，2019年美国原油产量料将增至123610000 barrels/日，这将远超2018年日均1096万桶的年度纪录。更多数据显示，截至9month27The total number of active oil and gas drilling in the United States decreased during the current week8Seat to860Seat.

　　原油技术面来看依然处于震荡区间，日线形成双死叉形态，K线也是跌破布林带中轨，可以说情况非常偏弱，但是好在就是暂时在MA30andMA60均线处得到支撑，并且MACD没有破位O轴，指标线都是形成死叉状态，这也是为什么原油这两个交易日一直无法走出单边大跌的原因，需要大跌还是需要一波刺激下的下跌走出，让MACDDislocationO轴，来到弱势区域当中。从4小时和小时线目前全部陷入震荡之中，K线和均线交叉比较复杂，短线很难判断出大的趋势。综合来看，短期操作思路上常波个人建议反弹做空为辅，回调做多为主，上方重点关注58.2-57.7Frontline resistance, short-term focus below55.3-54.8Frontline support.

　　gold近期趋势分析及操作建议

　　周五市场风险情绪有所回升，因一些危机性事件得到缓解。地缘局势方面，沙特同意和胡塞武装达成有限的停火协议，中东紧张局势降温。同时，美国众议院针对川普的弹劾案很有可能流产，但对川普的内政外交政策会有一些负面的影响。常.波认为，继前一交易日的良好双向波动后，金价周五再度面临抛售压力，并延续了本周因避险需求减少而从近三周高点大幅回落的走势。与此同时，美元延续近期强势，攀升至两周高点，现回到接近99.00水平，这给以美元计价的大宗商品——黄金施加了一些额外的下行压力。

　　富常波个人认为尽管短期内波动加剧，但常|波预计区间波动将加剧黄金市场的观望情绪。同时，根据最新的每周黄金调查，即使情绪降至三个月低点，下周主要投资者仍看好黄金。大多数散户投资者在短期内仍看好黄金，但看多情绪处于6月中旬以来的最低水平，并且已连续四周下跌。常|波认为逢低买盘有潜力在下周支撑金价。不过，强劲的美元仍然是黄金的主要阻力，而且短期内可能不会改变。由于债券收益率不但下降，因此投资者再次将黄金视为最终的避险资产的时机不会太久。

　　黄金技术面来看，日线图表形态显示，周中金价一度反弹，但受阻于通道2的下轨，随后价格大幅下挫。不过，通道1下轨则多次给予价格支持，令行情避免了进一步扩大跌幅。但由于通道1下轨近日被测试的次数已超过3次，因此，存在强烈的跌破风险。同时，布林中轨的失守，也令后市更利于空头。一旦失守通道1下轨（切入位在1502附近），则会引发更多的抛售，令价格进一步跌向1480。1480是日线的头肩顶形态的颈线，跌破则令黄金构成中期顶部，空头目标指向1450-1435even to the extent that1400附近。不过，若涨破通道2下轨，则价格将有望再次测试1555附近阻力。综合来看，黄金目前仍有下行风险，下周操作富常波建议反弹做空为主，回撤做多为辅，上方关注隔日高点1509-1512Resistance, pay attention below1490-1492Frontline support.

　　黄金原油被套频繁亏损最直接的原因

　　1.Likes to buy at the bottom but doesn't know how to buy at the bottom, especially at historically low prices. Seeing that my own costs are lower than others, my heart is filled with joy. But I didn't expect that since the price has hit a historic low, there may be many new lows to come. It was supposed to be the market's last chance for you to make an appearance, but you went against the trend and even had your account funds cut in half within a week. I don't know how to copy the bottom and end up copying myself.

　　2.Not willing to stop loss: There are actually many articles related to this issue online, and talking too much doesn't make much sense. It can only be said that if you lose more, you will know the importance of stop loss. Some retail investors see that after a stop loss, the gold price rises again within a few days. "Next time, they will have a lucky mentality and stop cutting losses, which is obviously not feasible." Cut off losses and let profits run "is a wise saying. But then again, if you don't have your own profit model, your outcome is to buy, stop loss, buy again and stop loss, which is meaningless, and eventually slowly grind down your capital.

　　3.Don't dare to chase high: Many retail investors have a fear of heights, thinking that once the gold price rises, they will be trapped in chasing after it. What should they do? Perhaps you think this is chasing the rise and killing the fall, but I can tell you that the trend of the market is not directly related to the high or low price of gold. The key to whether to chase after the rise and kill the fall lies in looking at the "trend", which is precisely because our retail investors do not have enough control over the trend, so they mistakenly think that chasing after the rise and killing the fall. The safety of intervening after the formation of an upward trend is very high, and in the short term, there is actually a lot of profit. The core issue is how to determine whether the upward trend has formed, which has different standards in different market environments. If you lack the ability to control trends, it is recommended that you do not blindly operate alone. Learning or teacher guidance are both good choices.

　　4.Countering the trend and resisting orders: Operation against the market-If the direction is reversed, resist; Resisting losses intensifies; If it really doesn't work, stop loss; The direction of the stop loss has returned, or when the market rises, it falls; when buying, it rises, and it can never keep up with the rhythm.

　　5.Frequent operation: Frequent operation-无论单子理不理想，“负责任”的老师一个劲儿的给你做思想工作，说什么这个单子必赚无疑，不甘心的你听之任之，结果亏得灰头土脸，“不负责任”的老师可能找各种借口不给实时指导，给个区间让你来回操作即可，这我就搞不懂了，仓位是自己的，自己不知道控制？难道要等到爆仓才幻想着有没有后悔药吃？

Note: The above analysis is for reference only, and the market is constantly changing. When making an order, be sure to bring a stop loss! Investment carries risks, so be cautious when entering the industry!

Wen/Fuchangbo