Zhou Hongjin:9.16沙特遇袭原油产能重创；黄金原油晚间行情走势解析空单解套

　　9month16日，日内留意英国首相约翰逊与欧盟委员会主席容克日内举行脱欧会谈，若此番努力失败，约翰逊将“拒绝任何延期选项”，并在“无协议”情况下启动“脱欧”进程。此外，本周澳洲联储将公布9月货币政策会议纪要，而日本央行及美联储将相继公布9月利率决议，市场广泛预计美联储9Monthly interest rate reduction25个基点，年底前或将需再降息一次，而日本央行9月决议料不会做出重大转变。
　　上周六，全球最大石油企业沙特阿美两处石油设施受到无人机攻击后起火，对沙特57010000 barrels/日的产油量造成负面影响。这给油价短期提供了强劲上涨动能，但是中期来看crude oil市场供需相对宽松的格局仍将持续。沙特油田遇袭给金价提供避险买盘支撑，令金价走高。但需要注意，这种避险需求一般持续时间不长，而且上周美国CPI和零售销售等数据表现靓丽，市场取消了本周降息50个基点的押注，欧洲央行鸽派不及预期，国际经贸局势有所改善，都令金价承压。

　　

　　goldTrend analysis:
　　
　　尽管上周末沙特油田遇袭给金价提供避险买盘支撑，但这种避险需求一般持续时间不长，而且上周美国CPI和零售销售等数据表现靓丽，市场取消了本周降息50个基点的押注，欧洲央行鸽派不及预期，国际经贸局势有所改善，都令金价承压。
　　
　　周线来看，单边上涨后回调；K线高位出现“三只乌鸦”顶部信号，KDJDead fork,MAC红色柱萎缩，油价短线初步见顶，初步支撑在10Weekly moving average1484.26附近，若失守该位置，则可能会进一步跌向1463.56Nearby, this location is1160-1557Upward trend23.6%回撤位；中线目标谨慎参考38.2%Retreat position1405.65Nearby. upper5周均线阻力在1509.36附近，上周高点阻力在1524.27附近，鸿.金认为若意外收复该位置，则削弱短线看空信号。上方进一步阻力分别参考8month16Daily and weekly highs1535.11和近期高点1557.11；当然1550整数关口附近也存在较强的阻力。
　　
　　日线来看，高位震荡筑顶；MACDDead fork,KDJ死叉，金价在1484附近获得了一些支撑，上方还受到20Daily moving average1516.09附近阻力压制；本周留意该区域突破情况。鸿.金认为若上破1516.09附近阻力，则增加短线看涨信号，金价可能会重新分别试探上周高点1524.27and9month6Daily high point1428附近阻力；如果意外进一步上破，则金价可能会重新试探布林线上轨1550.89附近阻力。在顶破20日忙1516.09前，后市仍然偏向震荡下行，关注3268735920若下破1484.65附近支撑，则看向7month19Daily high point1453.09附近支撑。另外，布林线下轨1478.60附近也存在一些支撑；由于布林线轨道收口，中线走势方向可以参考布林线轨道1478.60-1550.89区域突破情况。短线的话，1500INTEGER GATES AND1495.03附近也分别存在一些支撑。10Daily moving average1510附近也存在一些阻力。综合来看，今日晚间操作思路上周鸿金个人建议高沽低渣即可；
　　
　　Focus on resistance above:1510.00；1516.09；1520.00；
　　
Pay attention to support below:1501.25；1495.03；1489.28；

　　

Suggestions for Gold Operations:
　　
　　1Rebound1516Stop loss without breaking short4US dollars, look at the target1502-1500；
　　
　　2Callback1495Do not break long, stop loss4US dollars, look at the target1508-1510；
　　
　　盘间行情实时变化具体操作策略以周鸿金指导实盘为准，添加薇-Core:zh66646Get real-time strategies and free solutions.
　　
　　　Analysis of crude oil trend:
　　
　　上周国际三大能源机构下调原油需求预期，美国方面寻求和伊朗会晤，一度令油价承压下行，不过上周末沙特油田遇袭，逾50010000 barrels/日的产能受到影响，美油周一跳涨逾15%，布油跳涨逾19%，目前有所回落，市场将关注事件的进一步进展。一方面市场担忧情绪有所回落，一部分受影响的产能会很快恢复，另一方面，美国打算动用战略原油储备保证供给，在形式进一步恶化之前，油价短线面临进一步上涨空间可能受到限制。当然，投资者还需留意国际经贸局势的进展和美伊关系的进一步消息。
　　
　　周线来看，震荡；留意布林线轨道50.83-65.33Regional breakthroughs, currentlyKDJGolden fork operation,MACD也初步金叉，后市略微偏向震荡上探布林线上轨65.33附近阻力，进一步较强的阻力在4Month high point66.60附近，鸿.金认为需要顶破该阻力，才能打开中线上涨通道。此外，5month24Daily and weekly highs63.96附近也存在较强的阻力，目前对油价形成压制，若油价回落至布林线中轨58.08下方，则削弱后市看涨信号，5周均线支撑在56.11Near.
　　
　　日线来看，震荡；油价跳涨后冲高回落，MACDGolden fork,KDJ死叉，短线走势变数较大，留意9month10Daily high point58.76附近支撑，鸿.金认为若回落至下方，则增加后市下行风险，然后100The daily moving average is supported by57.29Nearby,20The daily moving average is supported by55.95附近。上周低点支撑在54.00Nearby,9month3Daily low point support at52.84附近。关注3268735920若油价坚守58.76附近支撑，并回升至7month11Daily high point60.94上方，则增加后市看涨信号。进一步阻力在5month22Daily high point63.00Nearby,5month20Daily high point63.96附近。综合来看，短线走势变数较大，留意58.76-60.94区域突破情况；顶破60.94前，略微偏向震荡下行；所以今日晚间操作思路上周鸿金个人建议高空为主，低多为辅；
　　
　　Focus on resistance above:60.20；60.94；61.50；
　　
Pay attention to support below:58.76；57.29；56.72；

　　

　　1Rebound60.9Stop loss without breaking short0.5US dollars, look at the target59.0-58.8；
　　
　　2Callback58.7Do not break long, stop loss0.5US dollars, look at the target59.8-60.0；
　　
　　盘间行情实时变化具体操作策略以周鸿金指导实盘为准，添加薇-Core:zh66646Get real-time strategies and free solutions.
　　
　　1Special reminder: Investors need to recognize that for ordinary investors, most of the time they should focus on watching and waiting patiently for the best opportunity to sell, and avoiding frequent trading is one of the recognized winning secrets. Do not attempt to seize all fluctuations, nor expect to grasp every segment of the market. Judging the market situation is only a part of trading. Investors also need to have a reverence for the market, remember trading discipline, and strictly control their positions to reduce greed, overcome fear, and try to maintain a calm mind when trading.
　　
　　2Disclaimer: The above analysis only represents the author's personal opinion and does not constitute specific operations. The article has a lag effect, and based on this, profit and loss are the responsibility of the author. Investment is risky, and caution should be exercised when entering the market.
　　
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　　鸿金寄语-----
　　
To sustain long-term growth in this market, it is necessary to have a complete trading system, including position techniques, risk control, and technical systems. Only in this way, whether it is a volatile market or a unilateral market, can you make steady profits, truly understand the trend, and achieve the same level of confidence in opening, positioning, risk control, and profit in closing positions! Investing never seeks overnight wealth, only steady and long-term profits, laughing until the end! Only when the heart is as calm as water can Qi penetrate the rainbow!
　　
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