Chen Dabin9.10黄金原油白银长期操作策略|黄金原油晚间走势分析

　　2019下半年迎来哪些长线布局机会？进入下半年金融市场资金回笼，各个品种的波幅都开始变的很大，主要原因也是其它场外资金大量介入，国际消息面因素等影响。周金涛老师在2015年留下20条的预言，他在4年前就已经预言了2019大宗商品的底部。我们先来看一下2019年布局的长线单子，然后在讲一下后市具体的长线布局计划。

　　
　　如图：gold陈大宾在3月份布局的黄金1261附近多单，目标1556附近，近期精准到达止盈点位

　　
　　如图：crude oil大宾今年给出50.5,51.5,52.3,52.8,53.8长期多单 target80Above USD 目前短线报价58.3nearby
　　
　　后市还有哪些长线布局机会？
　　
　　黄金如图：先看一下黄金，黄金价格目前触及日线趋势线通道上边缘1486支撑附近，陈大宾建议破位则继续下行，不破则开始反弹，短线压力1501，1509.长线压力1577。 短线和中线支撑关注1486附近，长线支撑关注1466，1446。大宾提示所有套高位多单的注意破位1485短线就放弃抵抗，锁仓等待后市在解套。不破1485可以暂时持有。实时行情解析及解套方案可以关注公众号陈大宾。

　　
　　黄金后市长期布局计划： Touching below1466-1446分批做多 Stop loss1440 target1577Near.
　　
　　短线不破1486nearby 可以轻仓做多 Stop loss1476 target1501-1509 破位持有
　　
　　原油如图：原油月线做出一个M头后，多次试探颈线位支撑，开始长期牛市上涨行情，前面50.5,51.1等位置的低位长期多单耐心持有即可，后市关注55.9，56.4继续长期多头介入，等待最后的爆发阶段。所有套有原油空单的朋友 ，给到回落56.9,55.9附近全部出掉，不要犹豫，后市只做多单，不做空单，原油如何点位的多单都能回去，空单套了就难回去了。

　　
　　原油后市长线计划：   Touching below55.9-56.9Go long Stop loss53 target80Above USD
　　
Short line58.3Short selling nearby Stop loss59.5 target57.2-56.4nearby
　　
　　伦敦白银如图： 白银价格目前从年线和月线来看，下方的w低已经形成，陈大宾建议后市的长线支撑点关注16.8附近，长线的压力在年线和月线前期的M头颈线位和阴阳交叉处就是30.2附近，白银所有空单 后市在16.8附近全部出局。留多单即可。

　　
　　白银后市长线计划：   Touching below16.8Going long nearby Stop loss14 target30.2nearby
　　
　　陈大宾交易心得：
　　
　　投资市场各有千秋，我为什建议重仓做呢，很显然，你不重仓操作，肯定是赚不了钱也亏不了钱的，但是没有充分利用行情。不去重仓操作，不摸顶抄底，这是一般普通玩家都知道的道理，因为这样表面看起来很安全，可以延长生命周期，实际上是不可能赚钱的。我对进场点位就两个要求，一是止损小，二是进去以后就拉进止损保本，做到这两点就可以轻松把握。若是有需要把握中长线的朋友，可以找微信nbc1983获取实时行情解析。
　　
　　如何成为一名成功的投资者 Achieve a state of sustained and stable profitability? Consisting of three important parts= Trading ideas/idea+交易思路（技巧）+Trading sentiment （市场情绪和个人情绪）  Let's briefly talk about it first Trading ideas/理念，以后在讲交易情绪。做交易最关键的找准命门要害的那个点位进场，如何找到这个点呢？这个就可以运用到阶段性价格算法！在那么多走势陷阱当中，如何规避呢？这就要上升到交易思想，就是你自己主观上对交易的认知。行情波动，内在规律就是多空双方博弈的结果，是互动的。交易思想和理念很重要，技巧不重要。思想理念对了，技巧顺其自然。　最后回顾一下周金涛先生在2015Of20条预言！
　　
　　1. Don't assume that everyone's wealth accumulation is due to their abilities. Wealth accumulation comes entirely from the opportunities given to you during the economic cycle.
　　
　　2. 人生的财富轨迹就是康德拉季耶夫周期（祥见文末注释）。康德拉季耶夫周期一个循环是 60 Year, a person's natural lifespan is 60 Year.
　　
　　3. In theory, there are only three opportunities that a person can have in their lifetime. If they fail to seize each opportunity, their lifetime wealth will be lost. If you seize one of these opportunities, at least it's a middle-class person.
　　
　　4. A Kondratiev cycle is divided into recovery, prosperity, decline, and fragmentation. The Kondratiev cycle that we are experiencing now is a transition point from recession to the bamboo flute, and the next decade is destined to be spent in the bamboo flute.
　　
　　5. 2015 Year is an important turning point for the global economy and asset prices, which means that the overall asset return rate for the next four to five years is not only unprofitable, but may even result in losses.2016 Year to 2017 The year is a period of stagflation, and assets with poor liquidity may not be sought after by anyone. In the future 2017 Year to 2019 There may be a liquidity crisis this year.
　　
　　6. 2017 After the mid year and third quarter, we will see asset prices in China and the United States fall across the board,2019 The final low point of the year may be much lower than people imagine.
　　
　　7. 我奉劝大家，如果想发债最好发五年的，2018 You can feel the meaning of what I said after the year.
　　
　　8. Until 2025 Every year is the fifth Kangbo Xiaotiao stage.
　　
　　9. 40 People over the age of 18 have their first chance in life 2008 If you buy stocks or houses at that time, your life will be very successful.2008 Years ago, the last chance in life 1999 Year,40 Not many people in their twenties seize that opportunity, so 2008 Year is the first opportunity.
　　
　　10. The second opportunity is at 2019 Year, last time in 2030 Near the New Year, if you can catch a chance, you can become a middle-class person.
　　
　　11. 1985 Born after the year, now 30 People under the age of can only have their first chance in life 2019 Appears annually. So now 25 Year old to 30 A person of age, future 5 年，只能好好工作。因为买房什么都不行，这个就是由人生的财富命运所决定的。
　　
　　12. A bull market in commodities occurs every few decades, 2011 At least until 2030 In recent years, the trend of commodities has been a bear market, and it is impossible to achieve significant returns in terms of commodities.
　　
　　13. Real estate cycle 20 Annually cyclical, China's current real estate cycle 1999 Starting from the beginning of the year, 2017 Around the first half of the year, China's rebound will come to an end.2019 The annual housing prices will be at a low point.
　　
　　14. 2010 After the New Year, there was a housing bull market in the United States,2017 The year is the peak of the first wave, and if you buy a house in the United States, you can also wait a little longer.
　　
　　15. 未来五年是资产的下降期，大家尽量持有流动性好的资产，而不要持有流动性不好的资产。高位的房子就是流动性不好的资产，一级市场的股权也是流动性不好的资产。
　　
This year 9 month 14 On the same day, CITIC Construction Investment Corporation released the latest micro roadshow minutes of Zhou Jintao, which discussed how to layout 2017 Year. The predicted content is as follows:
　　
　　16. From the fourth quarter to 2017 The first half of the year may be the worst period for Chinese assets.2016 The third inventory cycle in China in the fourth quarter of this year may gradually approach its peak, starting from 2017 At the beginning of the year, China's inventory cycle began to decline. At this time, the inventory cycle in the United States is still in an upward phase, and such a combination is detrimental to China's assets.
　　
　　由于一线城市房地产库存的下降，而开工跟不上，不能排除房价再次拉升的可能性。如果汇率先跌，房价可能就会受到抑制。如果房价先涨，房价和汇率的关系就有点复杂，应该是房价先涨后跌，随后触发一定的系统风险。
　　
　　17. yes 2017 For the whole year, I still haven't found anything similar to it so far 2016 This is an opportunity for annual products. Global 2009 Since the mid cycle,2017 The end of the year is a high probability event.
　　
　　18. 2017 Year to 2019 The year is a period of resonance and downturn in the real estate cycle between China and the United States. This question may not necessarily be related to 2017 The annual performance is very severe, but there may be trend characteristics.
　　
　　19. 2017 Year to 2019 The annual product will double dip.2017 After the year, the commodity will once again dip, and the price of the second dip should be at 2015 Near the low point of the year.
　　
　　20. 2017 It is difficult to make absolute returns in a year,A 股依然没有机会，主要还是等待风险释放后的超跌反弹。而相对收益方面，黄金一定是首要选择，黄金的配置时点大致判断在 2017 Second quarter of the year.
　　Wen/Chen Dabin