刘论鑫：9.2黄金走势分析策略，盈利为何遥遥无期

　　刘论鑫：9.2gold走势分析策略，盈利为何遥遥无期
　　
　　慌慌张张，匆匆忙忙，我们来到这个市场，我们都清楚自己来到这个市场的目的，那么你还记得自己的初衷吗？每次写分析，论鑫都希望各位投资朋友明白一个道理，能够在操作上帮助到大家。这个市场，平静的表现下其实暗波汹涌，很多投资朋友轻易的进入，往往遍体鳞伤，最后拿着手中的单子每天魂不守舍，这种情况论鑫见过的也不是一次两次。每天都有很多朋友找到我，寻求帮助，然而更多的只是看完分析后迅速的找到下一篇继续看。
　　


　　Message surface:
　　
　　经过本周剧烈动荡的一周后，下周需持续关注中美贸易局势进展、英国脱欧进程、意大利政局，以及美伊关系、日韩关系等地缘政治风险，投资者依旧处于避险的主旋律下。更为重要的是，下周金融市场将再度迎来美联储主席鲍威尔讲话以及美国8Monthly non farm employment report. Against the backdrop of the recent red light of the inverted US Treasury yield, market concerns about a global economic recession are increasing day by day. The atmosphere of a new wave of easing around the world has become rampant, and the Federal Reserve is facing unprecedented pressure to further ease. Therefore, next week's speech by Federal Reserve Chairman Powell and the performance of US non farm payroll data will be crucial, as investors urgently seek any clues or guidance on the future policy prospects of the Federal Reserve.
　　
Federal Reserve Chairman Powell will meet on Friday afternoon Eastern Time in the United States1230Giving a speech at the University of Zurich in Switzerland. This could be the Federal Reserve9month18日做出利率决定前的最后一次发言。论鑫认为，鲍威尔定于下周五晚些时候发表讲话。他会给出最后的暗示，暗示他们计划在9Monthly interest rates will be lowered again. Powell made it clear in his speech at Jackson Hole last week that the Federal Reserve plans to9The interest rate will be lowered again in the month due to the escalating risk taking war and the economic weakness in other parts of the world; The market currently expects that the Federal Reserve will9Interest rate reduction at monthly meetings25The probability of one basis point is95.8%The probability of not lowering interest rates at all is4.2%。论鑫目前预计9Month and12The monthly interest rate will be lowered, and it is expected that the interest rate will remain unchanged next year;
　　
Before Powell's speech on Friday, the United States will release the heaviest data of the week, which is8Monthly non farm employment report. The most important thing is that the US employment data will be released on Friday, and everyone is paying attention to it. The market expects an increase in employment numbers16.8Ten thousand people. If the data falls below this level, it will push up gold and suppress the US dollar. United States8monthISMmanufacturingPMIIt will be announced on Tuesday. This will give us direction as the market still expects the manufacturing industryPMIMaintain at50Above. If approaching50The checkpoint will have a significant impact on the gold market, as this watershed will tell us whether it is expanding or contracting.
　　


　　Gold trend analysis:
　　
In the past week, international spot gold surged to1554.70美元盎司的年内高点后震荡回撤，在周二小幅反弹收涨后连续3The trading day closed down with a bearish candlestick, reaching its lowest point of the week1516.78美元盎司，周图也在此前连续4After a weekly rise, it closed down for the first time.
　　
Technically speaking,KThe line emits a bearish signal similar to 'engulfment',MACDAfter the top deviation, there is a preliminary deadlock,KDJThe high level has initially reached a dead cross, and the gold price has initially peaked in the short term. In the future, there is a risk of further pullback, which is initially supported by20Daily moving average1509.63Nearby, then1500Supports near the integer level, with last week's low point supported at1492.20Nearby; Strong support in1479.71Nearby,8month13Daily low point and1160-1555Upward trend19.1%The retreat support is located near this position. Centerline Strong Support Viewing7month19Daily high point1452.89Nearby. In the short term,10Daily moving average1518.79There is also some support nearby, and this location is also close to the overnight low point. above5Daily moving average resistance1532.04Nearby; Before regaining this position, the aftermarket tends to decline; Overnight high point resistance1550附近，论鑫认为若意外顶破该阻力，则增加短线看涨信号。短线4hourMACDandKDJDead cross operation, gold price is leaning towards testing the offline track of the Bollinger Line1518.75Nearby support, if the support is missed, increase the short-term bearish signal; Further support on1508.50Nearby;1400-1555Upward trend38.2%Retraction position support1496.00Nearby. If the gold price unexpectedly breaks the middle track of the Bollinger Line1534.83Nearby resistance weakens short-term bearish signals; And may be on the Bollinger Line again1549.30附近阻力。综合来看，周一操作思路上周论鑫个人建议高空为主，低多为辅；
　　
　　Suggestions for Gold Operations:
　　
　　1Callback1509Do not break long, stop loss4US dollars, look at the target1518-1520；
　　
　　2Rebound1530Stop loss without breaking short4US dollars, look at the target1519-1517；
　　
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