Wang Yuanzhe:8.29贵金属黄金原油走势分析及最新短线操作建议

Why do we always struggle with trading? Is it because the market is not doing well now, is it because I am unlucky, or is there a problem with the teacher's guidance? Countless questions and answers ultimately depend on the mindset you are in to view this money filled market. From Yuan Zhe's perspective, it's not that the market itself is difficult to do, but rather that it can never pass its own hurdle. Almost all losses come from hedging, heavy positions, full positions, and counter trend operations. Secondly, there is a mentality of luck that always thinks of a pullback or rebound, and in the end, the market goes in the opposite direction, and opportunities flow away like this; Such situations often occur when operating on one's own; Quickly liquidate positions with profits, and bear losses to the death; It is what we commonly refer to as the "inability to hold onto" operation, where there is a lack of accuracy in building and closing positions.


　　昨天金价开盘于1542.08，盘中最低1531.6Up to1546.8，收盘以一根十字星阴线报收于1539, basically in line with expectations.

　　从昨天的整个运行格局来看，主力控盘严重，早盘以1544做为依拖调整，直接打破了周二晚间的起涨点杀到1531.6这里，晚间再次打出了新高1546.8，从昨天的整个运行态势来分两种，死多派早盘就直接哪一波杀跌就被强爆，而死空派基本都是早盘杀多后反抽36-37空也基本被强爆，而技术派昨天从整个战略来看第一种早盘基本都是回抽隔夜起涨点多方向没错，但损小的也一样强爆，而晚间突破1544的箱体后最高到达1546.8回抽基本也是多，但市场并没有走出延续上行而是直接中阴下杀，从这几点可以看出目前的市场属于宽幅震荡格局，价格上不破高，下不破低，哪操作中我们只能守两边弃中间。


　　从宏观面对市场如果仔细深挖，还是能够发现一些多空的逻辑在里面，首先XX战进行到这个阶段可以说已经进入尾声，再升级就趋向于两个大国中断XX往来，那将是对国际秩序摧毁性的冲击，如果维持理性，个人认为XX战到此之后继续对市场的冲击即将接近尾声，而基本面在当前的情况下依然显得比较强势，一旦宏观的危机消退，那么高位金价就具备了主力不断的诱多杀多条件。但首先我们要关注的是短期此轮宏观冲击对金价的上涨力度，不出意外金价于少还有一次拉高的过程，这样再能对诱大批追多的散户进去，与此同时我们唯有拨开短期的迷雾，寻找中长期的逻辑才能够看清这个市场未来的发展趋势,个人之前一直提到一个观点，宏观的利好，不管是全球降息至各国央行增加gold储备及全球经济增长乏力都助长了黄金的上涨，从各国公布的指标来看，全球经济确实存在下滑的风险，因此经济下滑的预期成为不争的事实。但我们评估，随着山姆大叔对我们所有的商品加征关税、狮王面临大选的压力以及他极为看重的股市维稳，摩擦的风险大概率会有所消退，道琼斯指数的走势已经让狮王二狗团队感到有些着急，作为狮王二狗的政策功绩，道指的健康走势是其连任的条件之一，因此个人认为二狗大概率不会拿自己的政治生涯做赌注，在周六凌晨狮王对华加税措施采取的继续大幅加税动作更像是赌气行为，其强硬表态是大国之间博弈的反应，试图获得美国人的支持，但从之前的反应来看显然道琼斯周五的表现让其心惊胆战，两国关系继续恶化很可能影响其执政生涯。但是尽管我们预期此战接近尾声，仍要谨慎两方之间由XX战向全方位对抗发展，倘若如此，不仅对全球经济会产生重大影响，对于金价更是很大的利好刺激，而今天又是周四密切关注两方的谈判一旦达到缓和哪就是乌云盖顶的走势。


　　从当前盘面来看，至日图以1555调整到1525在四小时连续盘整7rootK线后拉升，短期多头趋势没有发生明显的改变，依旧处于上升趋势过程中，趋势延续或出现强势必须突破历史高点1555，在昨天价格处于上下洗，多空信心多被搞晕，而眼下我们细化一下，日图运行于5日均线上方，但收盘高点在下移，而辅助指标在走平，从这一点可以看出一旦配合消息面的影响随时变盘。


　　而四小时图表出现对称图形，系统有弱空信号出现，但由于日图多头没改直接限制了下调的幅度，这也致使昨天价格陷入多空通杀的局面，而目前上方压力在1542.6-45这里，而日图重压还是前高布林带收口位，突破才能进一步打开加速上行格局，也就是昨天早评我们所提到的会再诱一波散户进去，预期在1568-71之间打出长上影线，但目前这种情况没有二狗的助力又很难到达，因此操作上把握当下，到了哪里我们再按预期的计划走，而下方支撑于1531.6昨天的低点和四小时的平底及布林带下规1524一线，其次再来结合日图只有下破这里才能真正确定日图的调整正式开始，因此综上所述得出结论如下：


　　建议：以守为攻，价格早盘反抽1542.6-45之间空单入场，防守1550Take a look below1533-31.6之间出局，第二价格没有反抽空点而是直接下探1533这里多单直接入场，防守1529，继续看探底回升，目标不设以实时提示出局为主。（防守此单止损反抽2块左右在1531-32之间双倍进空，看24）市场顺息万变。

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　　crude oil：昨天油价基本如预期，EIA利多小幅反弹后下行，从当前盘面来看日图看似多，但整个结构形态来看这种上涨明显是虚涨，而四小时图有望再次走出对称结构型下跌，而日内上方压制在56.27-56.5，下方支撑于55.13-54.6，因此得出结论如下：


Suggestion:56.27-5之间空单入场，防守56.8, Objective55.13-54.6，多单只在54.6一线介入，别的位子暂不考虑。


Before the market situation emerges, everyone is predicting, and no one has an accurate answer. Whether it is technology or fundamentals, they are only assisting us in judging and increasing the probability. Regardless of the market situation and time, there will be different perspectives and directions in the market. So, how to have a unique prediction direction can we make the account funds increase with high success rate. Undoubtedly, it is a stable operating method, Stability has always been the pursuit of Yuan Zhe. As the saying goes, it is better to miss than to make mistakes. Choosing a good entry point is better than rushing in. The quality of the entry point determines the profit and loss of this order. A good position is one that can be attacked and defended, while a bad position is a dilemma that requires time. Of course, there is no lack of time verification, and the exchange of spatial profits is still the same as the saying, only by keeping in mind can we always be able to achieve it. Destiny does not refuse, fate does not stay, meeting and becoming friends in the vast sea of people is also a kind of fate. May your initiative exchange for satisfactory profits in the future, and you will definitely live up to your expectations!


　　以上出自分析师：公众号/王渊哲（官微：kz1338）