Wang Yuanzhe:8.27贵金属黄金原油走势分析及最新短线操作建议

Why do we always struggle with trading? Is it because the market is not doing well now, is it because I am unlucky, or is there a problem with the teacher's guidance? Countless questions and answers ultimately depend on the mindset you are in to view this money filled market. From Yuan Zhe's perspective, it's not that the market itself is difficult to do, but rather that it can never pass its own hurdle. Almost all losses come from hedging, heavy positions, full positions, and counter trend operations. Secondly, there is a mentality of luck that always thinks of a pullback or rebound, and in the end, the market goes in the opposite direction, and opportunities flow away like this; Such situations often occur when operating on one's own; Quickly liquidate positions with profits, and bear losses to the death; It is what we commonly refer to as the "inability to hold onto" operation, where there is a lack of accuracy in building and closing positions.


　　上一交易日，金价冲高之后大幅回落，重测1525dollar/盎司附近。其价格走势反映出市场对恐慌情绪和不确定性的再次担忧。而在昨日，特朗普就贸易谈判发表乐观言论，进一步缓解市场的恐慌局势。另外，美国昨日公布的7月耐用品订单数据以及8月达拉斯联储制造业指数均强于预期，提振美元走强，gold由此再受打压。

　　昨天金价早盘跳高开，最高到达1555后回落，最低到达1525，整体波幅30块，上涨3毛，基本与我们预期一样。


　　从盘面上观察，价格形成一根带有长影线的流星阴线（上影线长，实体短，下影线短）。从这个K线形态来看，价格有可能会形成反转形态，而今天应该是验证形态成败的一天，这样的K线形态在交易中如何处理？趋势依旧在上涨趋势中，这里交易者需要明白的是一旦今天验证是反转形成，那么市场只是局部的下跌，因为趋势没有改变，也就是短暂的回落，这个时候需要有一个辨别标准作为底线，这个标准针对个人的方式方法来决定，比如破趋势来确定标准，还是以支撑阻力位标准等等，对于波段操作者来说，在上涨的过程中形成的下跌，也就是正常回落才是波段交易者要克服的主要原因，当波段操作者明白了这种下跌是正常反应，也就会坦然面对自己的操作。那么这个时候对于波段操作者必须忍受这个下跌，也要同时面临利润缩水的现实，那么波段交易者坚持的理由是什么？这个理由就是他坚持的标准—做波段或中长线交易就必须能忍受。个人对于操作主要根据趋势确定方向，趋势的过程中就形成小的波段和大的波段，针对波段操作主要依据的是均线与K线结合形成突破在日线中来确定，均线就是标准，K线是验证码， 那么现在日线5日均线的位置在1517的支撑，而昨晚反弹的高点是1537，昨天的低点是1524.9，也就是说从战略角度来看，日内1537将是一个强阻，同时也预期是亚盘高点，而日图至1492上涨以来，目前整个趋势线上移到1505.6这里，也就是说短期价格只要不破这里多头趋势暂时不改，哪目前的调整仍然是局部的调整，从四小时图表来看，在昨晚二点以后正式出现做空信号，而早盘来看短期上方压力在1533-35.8，但以目前弱市来，直接反弹33-35难度较大，结合小时图来看，价格形成一个箱体盘局，下破24将再次打开下跌，反弹的高度预期在31.8一线，而下方一旦下破24，就是我们昨天预期的目标位1517-06一线，因此战略上亚盘采取分批入场，分险控制到总资金的百分之四，综上所述得出结论如下：


　　建议：第一笔空单1532轻仓入，给1535加一笔，总仓位百分之八，防守1538，目标看不设，下破1524继续加空，防守1529，给1521-17分批走低位，留高位，下破15see06一线全部出局反手入场，稳健以第二位子和第三位子分批入场，结合自己总资金和风险承受力来配合仓位，市场顺息万变，实时操作关注渊哲第一时间实时提示。


　　crude oil基本面：上一交易日，法国总统马克龙表示：伊朗总统将于未来几周之内和美国总统特朗普举行会晤，以寻求解决美伊核僵局的办法。任何解决美伊关系的协议在一定程度上都将放松对伊朗的制裁，从而增加原油供给量。而根据目前全球原油需求情况来看，这一消息面对油价将产生利空影响。

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　　技术面上：昨天冲高回落，在整个运行过程中出现反反复复，最终还是走出了下跌，从当前盘面来看，日内转多点54，上方极限位54.86, lower support53-52.6，战略上高空不变。在原油小时级别，从上一周的56.5附近，截至昨日开盘后的最低价，短周期油价成型了下跌五浪走势，且在油价下测53之后出现诱空局势。此外，昨日反弹的高点为55.2则正好属于这一下跌五浪的极限位（黄金分割0.618）。由此，在短线上则可考虑油价构建特殊区间的有效性，即下方支撑为53.8附近，上方压力为55.2一线。而在昨日晚间下方支撑位已然多次测试且存在企稳迹象，故日内交易者可在53.8一线附近进场原油多单，止损53.4，反抽54.5-86分批入局，防守55.3，目标不设，参考支撑。


Before the market situation emerges, everyone is predicting, and no one has an accurate answer. Whether it is technology or fundamentals, they are only assisting us in judging and increasing the probability. Regardless of the market situation and time, there will be different perspectives and directions in the market. So, how to have a unique prediction direction can we make the account funds increase with high success rate. Undoubtedly, it is a stable operating method, Stability has always been the pursuit of Yuan Zhe. As the saying goes, it is better to miss than to make mistakes. Choosing a good entry point is better than rushing in. The quality of the entry point determines the profit and loss of this order. A good position is one that can be attacked and defended, while a bad position is a dilemma that requires time. Of course, there is no lack of time verification, and the exchange of spatial profits is still the same as the saying, only by keeping in mind can we always be able to achieve it. Destiny does not refuse, fate does not stay, meeting and becoming friends in the vast sea of people is also a kind of fate. May your initiative exchange for satisfactory profits in the future, and you will definitely live up to your expectations!


　　以上出自分析师：公众号/王渊哲（官微：kz1338）