Wang Yuanzhe:8.26贵金属黄金原油走势分析及最新短线操作建议

Why do we always struggle with trading? Is it because the market is not doing well now, is it because I am unlucky, or is there a problem with the teacher's guidance? Countless questions and answers ultimately depend on the mindset you are in to view this money filled market. From Yuan Zhe's perspective, it's not that the market itself is difficult to do, but rather that it can never pass its own hurdle. Almost all losses come from hedging, heavy positions, full positions, and counter trend operations. Secondly, there is a mentality of luck that always thinks of a pullback or rebound, and in the end, the market goes in the opposite direction, and opportunities flow away like this; Such situations often occur when operating on one's own; Quickly liquidate positions with profits, and bear losses to the death; It is what we commonly refer to as the "inability to hold onto" operation, where there is a lack of accuracy in building and closing positions.


　　上周五全球瞩目的鲍威尔讲话无新意，市场解读为偏鸽派，导致美元走软gold上涨，同时中国对美加征关税的反击，贸易摩擦升级，触发市场避险情绪大增，黄金自1500下方连续回升上涨，测压至1530一线附近。最终日线收得一阳，周线也再收得一阳，一改周内的沉闷气氛。而随后市场的依旧不太平，美总统特某有关于贸易问题的最新言论，又导致市场避险情绪进一步升温，美元大跌，今日黄金也出现跳空高开，高点已经测压至1555frontline.


　　回顾最近两三个月的行情走势可以看出，行情基本完全在受市场消息面的影响，无论是市场对于美联储的降息预期，还是贸易局势，都给黄金带来极大的避险买盘需求。但是这种消息面又极为不可控，尤其在美总统特某的搅和下，消息面的不确定风险更大。每当因消息面突现利好，行情突然拉升上涨，随后便陷入持续的震荡，但是又不给出较为理想的空间回撤，在期待技术上出现理想的空间回撤时，又是一波突发消息猝不及防的拉升上涨，行情完全受到基本面情绪化掌控，脱离常规的技术走势规律。


　　技术上，目前无论是从周线、日线上都已经无从着手分析，原本日线级别的超买、顶部背离，周线级别连阳状态以及顶部背离都可以给行情带来一定的回修调整，也同样期待行情回撤到技术上的理想支撑位再去考虑多单参与，但是消息面的不可控性使得行情脱离技术走势规律，这不仅加大了未来行情的不可控性，给操作上也带来了极大的麻烦和风险。


　　对于消息面的不可控状态，目前我们所能做的就是观望，因为消息面的我们无从预判，尤其是已经急眼的美总统特某，这样的搅屎棍般的危险人物对市场的搅局更是难防。而从事件发展的角度来看，无论是降息预期，还是贸易摩擦，最终都会得到解决，黄金届时也会因避险情绪消散而转跌回落，但是这些何时解决，期间有还会有哪些变故，都是目前极难预判和把控的风险。


　　所以近期对于黄金持观望态度，避开目前不受掌控的情绪化行情，等待市场消化掉消息面的影响后，行情步入常规技术走势状态后再选择参与，但依旧要防范随时可能出现的不可控基本面风险。

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　　鉴于日内跳空高开，留下1530-35缺口，且高点已经测压至1555一线，所以日内暂且看1550-1535区间内震荡消化，行情处于极难把控的情绪化状态，上半周暂时不考虑任何参与，规避消息面的混乱状态。后期的操作有待行情稳定，尤其是基本面稳定后再择机参与。


　　上周五因国际贸易局势进一步恶化，加剧了全球经济的悲观预期，crude oil的需求前景再遭打压，美油进一步回落调整，跌破54一线，周线收得一阴线，带有极长上影线，连续两周均带上影线，表明上方压制还是比较强的。


　　日线结构上，美油连续三日收阴下跌，回到54下方运行，也就意味着前期持续的偏强震荡的完结，行情再度回归到弱势的可能性进一步加大。结合日线以及小时图走势状态，目前上方着重关注54一线争夺，可以视作为短线强弱的关键，上方55一线也需要关注，只要行情尚且处在55以下，那么多半还是会有进一步的回修调整需求的。下方关注52附近支撑测试，不排除后期再度回撤至51-50区域的可能性。


　　操作上，鉴于目前消息面带来的影响较难把控，所以稳健者可暂作观望为宜，激进则继续尝试以择高搏短空为主。

　　日内激进回弹测压54附近轻仓短空，至54.3-5附近可轻仓补空，带止损54.8Look at the target below53.5-3减仓改保本止损，跌破再看53测试，以及52支撑测试。


Before the market situation emerges, everyone is predicting, and no one has an accurate answer. Whether it is technology or fundamentals, they are only assisting us in judging and increasing the probability. Regardless of the market situation and time, there will be different perspectives and directions in the market. So, how to have a unique prediction direction can we make the account funds increase with high success rate. Undoubtedly, it is a stable operating method, Stability has always been the pursuit of Yuan Zhe. As the saying goes, it is better to miss than to make mistakes. Choosing a good entry point is better than rushing in. The quality of the entry point determines the profit and loss of this order. A good position is one that can be attacked and defended, while a bad position is a dilemma that requires time. Of course, there is no lack of time verification, and the exchange of spatial profits is still the same as the saying, only by keeping in mind can we always be able to achieve it. Destiny does not refuse, fate does not stay, meeting and becoming friends in the vast sea of people is also a kind of fate. May your initiative exchange for satisfactory profits in the future, and you will definitely live up to your expectations!


　　以上出自分析师：公众号/王渊哲（官微：kz1338）