Zhou Hongjin:8.19黄金失守千五晚间还会涨吗？黄金原油晚间行情走势及操作建议

　　8month19Daily, spotgold价格下滑，因亚洲股市反弹。有迹象显示，全球主要央行将祭出更多刺激举措，缓解了人们对经济衰退的忧虑。中国央行改变一项指标利率设定的方式带来额外提振。中国人民银行决定改革完善贷款市场报价利率形成机制。8month16日，美国司法部采取了一项不同寻常的行动，对运输了价值1.3亿美元轻质crude oil的格雷斯1号超级油轮发出了扣押令，并提出了没收申诉。美国称，这艘油轮由伊朗革命卫队控制。直布罗陀当局周日表示，根据欧盟、英国或直布罗陀法律，伊朗革命卫队并不被认定为恐怖组织，并拒绝了美国的要求。现在这艘油轮去向不明。如果因为这件事导致地缘局势进一步恶化，或许会在短期内支撑油价上涨。

Gold trend analysis：
　　
　　美元上周表现超越多数G-10货币美元指数，令金价承压，国际贸易局势有所缓和，美国股市持续反弹，打压避险需求，对金价不利；技术面，金价上涨动能减弱，短线存在较大的回调风险。
　　
　　周线来看，单边上涨；MACDGolden cross, moving average bullish arrangement, there is still a possibility of further upward trend in the future, and the initial resistance is at last week's high point1535.01Nearby, strong resistance2013year4month5Daily weekly low point1540.08Nearby,2013year2month22Daily weekly low point1555.17附近，鸿.金认为若意外该阻力，则增加中长线看涨信号。由于KDJThere is a dead cross trend at high levels, and in the short term, one needs to be cautious of the risk of hitting the top or the need for a pullback; currently5The weekly moving average is supported by1476.01Nearby,7month19Daily high support for the week1452.89Nearby,10The weekly moving average is supported by1442.85附近，若失守该支撑，则增加中长线看空信号。
　　
　　日线来看，单边上涨后高位震荡；KDJHigh level dead cross, with some signs of a turning in the moving average, causing the gold price to be blocked for four consecutive trading days1535Nearby resistance, currently falling back to5Daily moving average1512.90下方，短线金价面临较大的回调风险，初步支撑在10Daily moving average1504.92Nearby, then1500Support near the integer threshold,1381-1535Upward trend38.2%Retraction position support1476.39If the position is lost nearby, it will increase the short-term bearish signal. Due toMACDThe golden cross signal is still present, pay attention to the high point of the previous trading day above1527.89附近阻力，关注3268735920若意外顶破该阻力，则增加短线看涨信号；短线的话，1520There is also some resistance near the integer level, with resistance at the high point of the previous trading day's New York session1517.21附近。综合来看，今日晚间操作思路上周鸿金个人建议高空为主，低多为辅；
　　
Focus on resistance above:1504.92；1512.90；1517.21；
　　
Pay attention to support below:1500.00；1494.00；1487.73；

　　

Suggestions for Gold Operations:
　　
　　1Rebound1513Stop loss without breaking short4US dollars, look at the target1496-1494；
　　
　　2Callback1494Do not break long, stop loss4US dollars, look at the target1508-1510；
　　
　　盘间行情实时变化具体操作策略以周鸿金指导实盘为准，添加薇-Core:zh66646Get real-time strategies and free solutions.
　　
Analysis of crude oil trend：
　　
　　市场对国际贸易局势的担忧有所降温，全球股市反弹，周末沙特油田遭遇袭击，都给油价反弹提供了一些机会，不过之前OPEC下调需求预期，原油库存增加，而且称2020年油市将面临供给过剩的风险，仍对油价油价有所拖累；短线油价走势变数较大。
　　
　　周线来看，震荡；MACDandKDJ信号比较模糊，留意51.25-58.24区域突破情况，分别是布林线下轨支撑和布林线中轨阻力。若上破布林线中轨58.24If there is resistance nearby, it will increase the short-term bullish signal, and further resistance will increase7Month high point60.94附近支撑。若下破布林线下轨51.25附近支撑，则可能会再次试探近期低点50.52Nearby support, further support at1month11Daily weekly low point48.11Near.
　　
　　日线来看，震荡下跌；MACDBonding,KDJ交织，短线走势变数较大，KDJ金叉，短线多头略站上风，上方初步阻力在布林线中轨55.72附近，下行趋势下阻力56.75附近，鸿.金认为若顶破该阻力，则有望进一步上探布林线上轨58.97附近阻力。下方初步支撑在上周低点53.54Nearby, the Bollinger Line's lower track supports52.47附近，若下破该支撑，则可能会打开新的下行通道。
　　
　　4小时来看，震荡，留意布林线轨道53.76-56.85Regional breakthrough situation,KDJGolden fork,MACD初步金叉，短线留意55.65附近阻力，若顶破该阻力，则有望进一步涨向布林线上轨56.85附近。关注3268735920若下破布林线下轨53.76附近支撑，则增加后市下行风险。进一步支撑在53.06Nearby, strong support on51.94附近。综合来看，短线走势变数较大，留意53.76-56.85区域突破情况，所以今日晚间周鸿金个人建议区间高沽低渣即可；
　　
Focus on resistance above:55.65；56.85；57.47；
　　
Pay attention to support below:54.26；53.76；52.47；

　　

Suggestions for crude oil operation:
　　
　　1Callback54.3Do not break long, stop loss0.5US dollars, look at the target55.4-55.6；
　　
　　2Rebound56.0Stop loss without breaking short0.5US dollars, look at the target55.0-54.8；
　　
　　盘间行情实时变化具体操作策略以周鸿金指导实盘为准，添加薇-Core:zh66646Get real-time strategies and free solutions.
　　
　　1Special reminder: Investors need to recognize that for ordinary investors, most of the time they should focus on watching and waiting patiently for the best opportunity to sell, and avoiding frequent trading is one of the recognized winning secrets. Do not attempt to seize all fluctuations, nor expect to grasp every segment of the market. Judging the market situation is only a part of trading. Investors also need to have a reverence for the market, remember trading discipline, and strictly control their positions to reduce greed, overcome fear, and try to maintain a calm mind when trading.
　　
　　2Disclaimer: The above analysis only represents the author's personal opinion and does not constitute specific operations. The article has a lag effect, and based on this, profit and loss are the responsibility of the author. Investment is risky, and caution should be exercised when entering the market.
　　
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