Jin Wansheng:8.19What kind of big market is brewing for the recovery of gold volatility? Analysis of Evening Gold Oil Trends

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Monday(8month19day)In the Asian market, spotgoldExpand the downward trend and briefly fall below1505USD, lowest touch1504.89dollar/ounce. Analysts point out that the US economy is sluggish.The latest tweets from Pu and the weekend speech by White House National Economic Council Director Kudlow have cooled down market risk aversion, which has weighed on the trend of gold prices. In recent weeks, the situation has become tense in the area of trade-Despite the bleak global economic growth prospects, gold prices have remained stable. Today(8month19day)During the Asian session, gold prices have declined slightly, but ANZ Bank stated that spot gold may soon rise again as investors remain bullish on gold. The market will pay attention to Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Conference this week.
　　
　　本周有一个关键的时间点——杰克逊霍尔央行峰会，它素有政策拐点“晴雨表”之称，投资者将密切关注美联储主席鲍威尔在会议上的讲话。如果市场动荡继续下去，美联储主席鲍威尔可能将利用美联储在杰克逊霍尔召开的研讨会，阐明美联储是正处于一个严重降息周期的开端，还是只是打算降息几次，以防范可能出现的经济低迷。鲍威尔将在当地时间本周五早上发表讲话，拉开美联储在怀俄明州杰克逊霍尔召开的年度央行研讨会的序幕。此次会议是未来一周市场的主要焦点。

　　

　　金万升个人观点：从长期看，黄金的基本面支撑仍然没有改变。现在市场上令投资者担忧的事情很多，全球资本追逐避险。黄金若是还想继续走高，那么第一，美元暴跌，美联储宣布降息，而且不止一次，还有三次。第二，中美贸易冲突继续。这两大事件才能够支持黄金继续上涨。金万升认为，中美贸易关系的紧张会得到缓解，金价会下跌。而且，朗.Pu said that the Mao Yi battle will not last too long. What level will it fall to? In Jin Wansheng's view, the first thing to look at is1480, followed by1440However, the latter is difficult to fall below. After this autumn, it is expected that the Federal Reserve will announce interest rate cuts, the US dollar will weaken, and gold prices will rebound again1500At the above level, it can be said that gold will decline this year1400There is no basis for it. In terms of the overall trend, gold will continue to rise.
　　
Analysis of the latest market trend of gold:
　　
　　上周黄金周线收官于1512.7The US dollar recorded a solid bearish trend on the daily chart, swallowing the previous day's bullish line. Gold seems to have fallen a lot, but in reality, it has not fallen below the fatal position of bulls. Last week's highest touch1535Rising16USD, overall increase1.07%From a daily perspective, there are signs of a short-term pullback in gold, so whether the downward trend continues at the beginning of this week will be crucial. If it continues to be bearish, it is expected to launch a deeper pullback and reach the lowest point of Tuesday's pullback1480Support, if yin and yang alternate, continue to maintain a fluctuating mindset.
　　
　　黄金日线来看：单边上涨后高位震荡；黄金高位震荡，均线多头排列，虽然出现短线上的回落。但整体的向上趋势没有改变。指标多方区域内运行，也还没有出现明显的调整现象，而旗形整理过后的涨幅目标价还未到，震荡过后仍有创新高的机会。总体而言，黄金多头形态明显，调整结束之后继续向上的概率较大，依然可以逢低做多。
　　
Gold4From an hourly perspective: Gold prices remain under pressure and are declining,MACDThe green kinetic energy column remains stable,KDJThe random indicator has turned slightly lower, indicating that gold prices may continue to face short-term pressure and decline. However, gold is still in an upward trend, with the first resistance being1515-1518On the front line, further up is1525If the bulls can recover from these two areas, the gold price is likely to continue hitting new highs. In terms of operation, Jin Wansheng suggests mainly focusing on low to high prices, with rebound to high prices as a supplement;
　　
　　综合上述，金万升认为周初的金价仍有上涨的动力，只不过受周初波幅有限的影响，涨幅可能不会很大。具体来说，上方阻力先留意1515-1517Frontline, followed by a focus on attention1525At any time, if we recapture this area, there will be a bullish trend continuing to hit new highs, otherwise we need to be cautious and increase the strength of the correction. For support, pay attention first1500-1497On the front line, those above belong to the strong control of bulls, with the possibility of reaching a new high. If they break below, there is a high probability of further adjustment. As for the possibility of a downturn1490Still1480It is necessary to make timely judgments based on changes in the market. In short, gold is still in a bullish trend at present, and unless there is strong support from bearish short-term moving averages that break below the weekly level, any pullback cannot change the bullish mindset.

　　

Latest operating suggestions for gold:
　　
　　1Gold Callback1503Long on the front line, stop loss1497On the target1516frontline;
　　
　　2Gold rebound1520Short on the front line, stop loss1525Look at the target below1513frontline,
　　
Internationalcrude oilMarket trend analysis:
　　
　　原油上周先扬后抑，周初强势走出一波反弹，周尾时段稍有回落，周线收盘较长的上影十字KLine. In the low-level oscillation tug of war, the daily chart angle range oscillates, and there are signs of a double bottom rebound in the support of the lower low point, but the rebound has been repeatedly suppressed by the moving average. At present, there is no unilateral trend, and the daily chart is expected to fluctuate.
　　
　　原油小时图回测后守住53.70Above the closing, as emphasized last Friday, there is still room for a pullback53.70Short term will still rebound and close higher, while the daily chart will remain relatively stable55.0above The Bollinger Bands closed in parallel, and the short-term trend also tends to fluctuate. The trend needs further clarification, ranging from below53.70 and54.20The support is starting to stabilize, and aggressive operations at the beginning of the week can be carried out53.70The game is still playing low and looking for a rebound, and we will adjust our thinking after breaking down. Overall, today's operational strategy for Jin Wansheng suggests mainly focusing on long positions with a pullback, supplemented by a high rebound. Short term attention should be paid to the upper levels56.2-56.4Frontline resistance, short-term focus below54.3-54.5Frontline support.
　　
Latest operating recommendations for crude oil:
　　
　　1Crude oil rebounded to56.2-56.4Short on the front line, stop loss0.4US dollars, look at the target55.4-55.6frontline;
　　
　　2Crude oil callback to54.3-54.5Long on the front line, stop loss0.4US dollars, look at the target55.3-55.5frontline;
　　
　　3The market is constantly changing, and the price points are for reference only. Investment is risky, and caution is required when entering the market. For more details, please follow Jin Wansheng's official account||Wei:j1596850693；
　　
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