Focus on gold:8.19黄金原油周一早间开盘分析策略

Guidance relies on influential people, walking relies on oneself, growth relies on learning, and achievement relies on teamwork. Waking up is not to cope with today's time; But we must live more brilliantly today than yesterday! No matter how good yesterday is, I can't walk back. Even if tomorrow is difficult, I have to raise my foot and continue; You are not brave, no one is strong for you, you are not crazy, no one helps you achieve your dreams; No matter how excellent you were yesterday, it cannot represent today's glory. Please remember that yesterday's sun will never dry today's clothes. Embrace every day with a sunny attitude!
　　
　　本周经济数据向好提振美元走强，尽管市场坚持认为美联储下月将再次降息标价因素方面本周持续给gold带来压力，因为美元在向好数据提振下持续走强。本周二公布的数据显示，美国7monthCPI年率和核心CPI年率别分录得1.8%and2.2%, higher than expected1.7%and2.1%。而周四的7Monthly retail sales rate recorded0.7%，核心月率达到1.0%，也都明显高于预期值。两项硬数据都指示美元经济向好，特别是经济主引擎消费较为强劲。
　　
　　焦点个人观点：看涨黄金的人士仍对今年夏季的表现欣喜若狂，但焦点认为，市场可能已准备好在下周进行一些健康的整合，金价可能仍将维持在1500dollar/盎司水平附近。市场上几乎所有因素都对黄金有利，包括中美贸易担忧、香港抗议活动、股市波动、收益率为负的债务不断膨胀以及美国10年期和两年期国债收益率的倒挂。在经历了本周的风暴之后，投资者的避险情绪自然开始回归市场，这可能意味着金价将出现整固。焦点认为金价在1480-1500美元有很大的支撑，金价下周将横盘整理，可能略微走低。
　　
Gold market analysis:
　　
　　周五市场风险情绪回升，周四欧洲央行利率设定官员Olli Rehn表示，欧洲央行在9月份将出台新的刺激措施。美国联邦利率futures市场显示美联储将在9month100%降息。此消息对全球股市形成提振，金银的回调。周四（8month15The United States announced in Japan7月零售销售数据强于预期，上涨0.7%，远超市场预期0.3%的两倍，表明尽管汽车相关购买有所减少，消费者仍在购买其他产品，这可以缓解金融市场对经济可能进入衰退的担忧。数据的发布给黄金带来一定的压力并提振了美元，也将落入美联储的鹰派阵营。

　　

　　从日线级别来看：单边上涨；MACD金叉但顶背离，KDJ超买区域钝化担忧死叉迹象，KThe line shows a weakening of upward momentum, facing challenges above1540附近强阻力压制，该位置是2013年金价中长线跌势的跌破口，目前仍是强阻力所在，若不能快速顶破该阻力，金价将迎来中线回调走势，目前有点高位震荡筑顶的迹象。下方10The daily moving average support is currently at1507.23附近；若失守该位置，则增加短线见顶信号；综合来看，下周一操作思路上焦点个人建议反弹做空为主，回调做多为辅，上方重点关注1520-1525Frontline resistance, short-term focus below1500-1507Frontline support.
　　
Suggestions for Gold Operations:
　　
　　1Suggestions1528Stop loss without breaking short1533, Objective1523-1520；
　　
　　2Suggestions1508Do not break long, stop loss1503, Objective1513-1518；

　　

　　crude oilMarket analysis:
　　
　　原油消息面：需求面严峻形势和供应不确定性继续互相拉扯，油价周五小幅反弹后帮助周线适度收涨。美国油服公司贝克休斯(Baker Hughes)Friday(8month16day)According to published data, as of8month16During the current week, the number of active oil wells in the United States increased6Seat to770Seat,7周来首次录得增长且创4月来最大单周增幅。美国石油活跃钻井数7月累计减少了17Seat3月来最大降幅。连续八个月录得减少创2016year5月以来最长月线连降周期，当时曾连续九个月录得减少。6Monthly decrease7座，而5Monthly decrease5座。因美国油企开始减少新钻井的建造，从而将注意力转向盈利增长而非产量增长。
　　
　　原油技术面来分析，短线4小时来看，四小时图在经过隔夜的下跌后小幅上涨后4连阴再次下挫，持于低位震荡盘整，当前布林带即将开口，MA5即将与MA10向上交叉形金叉，当前K线位于中下轨之间运行之中，KDJ指标三线平行向前，MACD指标红绿动能柱持续交替，快慢线平行向前，综合来看，油价短期内依旧承压，空头趋势仍然强劲，打破此趋势得等待有利消息面获取支撑。投资者重点关注的是沙特不会让油价大幅下跌，操作上低多为主，中线看65上方。短期上方重点关注55.7-56.2Frontline resistance, short-term focus below53.7-54.0Frontline support. The market is constantly changing, and more market analysis and operational suggestions can be linked/系焦点微信（jdlj668）Daily market analysis and analysis.Strategy planning and guidance for medium to long term layout are all included!
　　
Suggestions for crude oil operation:
　　
　　1Suggestions56.2Stop loss without breaking short56.7, Objective55.7-55.2；
　　
　　2Suggestions53.7Do not break long, stop loss53.2, Objective54.2-55.2；
　　
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