Zhang Benxin8.4How much air disaster can we grasp? Next week's analysis of the trend of gold and crude oil, strategy unlocking

　　影响gold走势的二个方面


　　1、美国劳工部表示，7Monthly increase in non farm employment opportunities16.4万个，低于前一个月，工资小幅增长。7月平均工时降至近两年来的最低水平，因制造商减少了工人工时，这一迹象表明，第三季度初经济增长进一步放缓。加之贸易紧张局势可能升级，可能为美联储下月再次降息提供弹药。交易员认为美联储9月再次降息的可能性为100%。


　　2、此前美国总统特朗普表示，将对价值3000亿美元的中国进口商品加征10%关税。但两国之间旨在缓解紧张关系的贸易磋商仍在继续。美国和中国的谈判代表周三结束了一轮简短的贸易谈判，双方都称这次谈判是“建设性的”，特朗普宣布对更多中国商品加征10%的关税，这压低了美元指数，并带动了对黄金的一些避险需求。

　　------Gold trend analysis



Next week, the market fundamentals will be relatively light and data will be scarce. Overall, it is expected that there will be range fluctuations next week, but the time cycle has come to an end and it may gradually move out of range fluctuations next week. We need to turn our attention back next week and look back at the trend of the US dollar!


In the US dollar trend chart, monthlyKRandom indicator top deviation, weekKRandom indicators andMACDIndicator slightly upward, moving average system with long positions, weeklyK形态属于射击之星，强势上行；日KThe middle random indicator has a dead cross downward, and dailyKBelonging to bearish swallowing, it is expected to continue downward adjustment.4In the hourly chart, the rapid decline of the US dollar index is still supported by the moving average system. The US dollar index is expected to continue its downward trend until next week.


In the trend chart of gold technology, dailyKThe random indicator restarts with a golden cross upward, and the previous peak deviation and downward trend have been temporarily corrected. Here, it can be seen that the dailyKIt is a correction technique of exchanging time for space;MACDThe downward momentum of indicators has decreased,MACDThe speed line shows signs of a hook pointing upwards!4In the hourly chart, the random indicator crosses upwards, and the upward momentum gradually increases,MACDThe speed line oscillates upwards,4The hour long head leans slightly upwards!


WeeksKAmong them, the random indicator stepped up twice,MACDThe speed line of the indicator is up, weeklyKThis week's collection1440Front line engulfed last week's weekKThere are signs of an upward breakthrough in gold next week.


In the one hour chart, there is a completely uninterrupted market trend, with bottoming out, rebounding, and shaking. Super roller coasters are mostly overnight drivers, who want to follow the car for two steps in the morning, but may be thrown thousands of miles away. However, the support resistance is still effective. After all, the driver is not driving a tank, and the obstacles ahead need to be carefully considered,1432Continuing to encounter obstacles,1400Support,1430Top to bottom conversion, how to play is still not out of bounds, continue to play short-term next week1430As a support1430-1448Between fluctuations, try to avoid breaking levels as much as possible at the beginning of the week. There is still a chance to follow after truly breaking levels, after all, the overall situation has been fluctuating and rising recently.


　　下周黄金操作策略


　　1Rebound on1445-1447附近空，目标看1440-1435Stop loss1453;


　　2、回撤在1430-1428附近多，目标看1438-1445Stop loss1425


　　------crude oilTrend analysis


　　周线上看：周线震荡；下行趋势线、100周均线对油价压制明显，MACDDead fork operation,KDJ金叉信号减弱，后市偏向震荡下行，初步支撑在200Weekly moving average53.11Nearby, the Bollinger Line's lower track supports51.33附近，若失守该支撑，则有望打开新的下行空间。上方初步阻力在5Weekly moving average57,23Nearby,20周均线阻力在59.01Nearby,100周均线阻力在60.72附近，若意外顶破该阻力，则增加看涨信号。


　　日线上看：；继续关注54.72-57.64区域突破情况，前者是7month18日低点且接近布林线下轨支撑，后者是7month24日高点且接近布林线中轨阻力；KDJGolden fork operation,MACD死叉减弱，若能顶破布林线中轨57.74附近阻力，则增加短线看涨信号；进一步阻力在7month17Daily high point58.36Nearby,100Daily moving average resistance59.24附近。若意外下破布林线下轨54.76附近支撑，则增加短线看空信号；进一步支撑在6month19Daily low point53.50Nearby,6month17The daily high is supported by52.74附近，然后较强的支撑在6month5Daily low point50.60Near.5Daily moving average56.44附近也存在一些支撑。


　　下周原油操作策略


Bounce Above56.5-56.8Short selling on the front line(Buy down), two tenths of a position, stop loss0.4US dollars, look at the target56.0-55.8Nearby; Dislocation55.5Near.


　　回调下方54.8-55.0线做多（买涨），十分之二仓位，止损0.4USD, target56.0-56.2Nearby; Dislocation56.5Near.

Message: The retention of a glass of wine in the port of millions of people, the breakthrough of a sentence in the waiting of tens of thousands of people, even if exhausted, we will continue to embrace tomorrow. You cannot be my guest, just as I cannot be your teacher. Today's persistence will cause tomorrow's regret. Some people celebrate the market they seized, while others regret making mistakes in the market. You're here, I'm here, you're not here, I'm still here!



May you and I start with words and match our personalities,Trapped in technology, long after kindness, finally character.

Wen/Zhang Benxin (official WeChat account)ttdxyna6）