Li Wen Dianjin:7.30加息预期即将尘埃落定，黄金原油大单边一触即发

　　周一国际金银整体呈震荡上行趋势，虽然国际gold在晚间一度短线下挫逾7美元，但随着美元走软黄金在尾盘持续拉升，较日低反弹超11美元，最终强势收涨。不过，有分析认为由于市场对美联储降息的押注有所缓和，金价的上行空间受到一定压制，后续表现未必会保持强势。另外，美联储前主席耶伦表示，支持降息25个基点。耶伦认为，全球经济已经走软，美国通胀率也依然低迷，虽然这并不意味着美联储要开启一个全新的宽松周期，但小幅降息还是合适的。
　　
Tuesday（7month30日）亚洲时段，油价走高，因市场猜测美联储的潜在降息将会提升石油需求。此外，刚刚缓和的中东地缘局势有再度升温的迹象，也支撑油价上行。伊朗外交部美根本不想谈判，没有打算寻求对话。但需要警惕的是，由于美消费数据疲软，IEA连续第二个月下调了对石油需求增长的预测，需求前景低迷始终是打压油价上行空间的直接因素。留意次日04:30U.S.AAPIcrude oil库存变化，料短线左右油价波动。
　　
　　李文点金个人观点：随着市场对全球经济放缓、避险紧张局势、英国脱欧以及令人烦恼的通胀压力缺乏等系列问题的担忧加剧，目前投资者普遍预期美联储将在7month30day-31日的会议上宣布降息。与此同时，从美联储利率futures来看，市场对今年7Month9Month and12月都有降息的预期。此外，市场对今年四季度美联储再一次降息的预期非常高，甚至40%的市场人士认为9月美联储就会第二次降息。李文点金认为，在美联储会议召开之前，市场较为谨慎，但无论美联储是否偏向鸽派，黄金都将会获得支撑。但是在降息25个基点后的情况下，金价最有可能下跌，并测试1400dollar/Ounce level.
　　
————Analysis of Gold Market
　　
　　投资者在观察债券市场大幅降息预期时应谨慎。由于美联储的行动力度料不及市场预期，金价今年可能已见顶。如果美联储不采取真正激进的降息措施，就很难看到金价走高。如果今年降息四次，那么你就会爱上黄金，但如果美联储在7月份降息，到今年年底可能还会再降息一次，那么黄金可能已经有了最好的表现。如果英国无协议脱欧风险进一步攀升，则市场避险情绪将升温，届时黄金将获得广泛买盘提振。反之，若英国脱欧问题意外得以妥善解决，届时市场避险情绪大幅降温，黄金恐遭全面大幅抛售。
　　
Gold from4小时来看，黄金暂时呈现相当窄幅的交投，整体黄金维持在1430-1414区间内震荡运行，由于长时间的震荡，均线方面处于纠结状态未有任何参考作用MACD红色动能柱显现后不变，且实体较窄，KDJ随机指标略偏向下，但有形成死叉的可能性出现，暗示黄金短线上涨动能不足，或展开一定程度的回撤。在1430-1414区间突破前，继续看待黄金持续改区间内的震荡。综合来看，今日操作思路上李文点金个人建议回调做多为主，反弹做空为辅，上方重点关注1433-1435Frontline resistance, short-term focus below1415-1420Frontline support.
　　
Suggestions for short-term operation of gold:
　　
　　1Suggestions1415Do not break long, stop loss1410, Objective1420-1425；
　　
　　2Suggestions1434Stop loss without breaking short1439, Objective1429-1425；
　　
If your operation is not ideal and you are trapped in a loss trap, here is a professional technical analysis. You can follow Li Wen's advice on Jin Wei:(ldw⑥ ⑥ ⑤ ⑨)Communicate, exchange, and obtain guidance. Every day, Asia, Europe, and the United States will provide timely analysis and direction!
　　
　　1、黄金被套了怎么办?
　　
　　很多出资者在被夲单往后，心里就开端发慌，着急，开端不断的问多个老师定见，会不会涨回来或跌下去。在他们问的过程中早已经错过最好的补救机遇了。这便是为什么跟我做单的朋友，我必定要让他先学习，学会自己判别的原因。
　　
　　2、黄金被套了第一时刻该干嘛?
　　
　　作为出资者的你，要学会对自己的资金负责，究竟你们的钱都是辛辛苦苦的赚的，不是洪流躺过来的，所以出资前必定要学会自己判别的能力，当你夲单了，千万不要手无所措，开端发慌的去找你的老师，而是要冷静，跟据自己的判别力最正确的选择。然后再找你老师，看看你老师的定见是否跟自己主意相同。假如方向明显反了，必定要决断，顺势而为。
　　
　　3、黄金被套了怎么处理?
　　
　　便是你在锁单后要选择适当的机遇把这个锁给解掉，即把两个单别离平掉，假如永远不平仓，虽然账户上显示的是亏本不变，但除了要承担隔夜单的利息外你后边的操作也会受到影响。解夲有两个难点：即解夲的点位和时刻。在什么样的点位和什么时候解夲将直接影响到你账户的盈亏。简略来说：点位最好是找破位，时刻必定要找行情方向明亮时。
　　
How to invest in gold correctly for beginners
　　
　　1Control emotions - Investors must be calm and control their emotions. They must calmly respond to sudden changes in the market, otherwise they will miss out on opportunities due to indecision. It is best to be prepared to deal with various possibilities before entering the market, so that when encountering sudden changes in the market, one may not feel too surprised and at a loss.
　　
　　2Starting from small transactions - For newcomers to the market, it is necessary to start with small scale transactions, gradually grasp the trading rules and accumulate experience, and then gradually increase positions.
　　
　　3Avoid being eager for quick success and instant benefit - there should be no desire for quick success and instant benefit in transactions. Investors should not enter the market based on their subjective desires in trading. Successful investors generally strictly separate their emotions from trading activities to avoid the market trend being opposite to personal wishes and bearing heavier risks.
　　
　　4Be prepared to accept failure at any time - Gold investment carries risks, and trading failure is inevitable throughout the entire transaction. It is also an important way for investors to gradually learn from and accumulate experience. When faced with investment failure, only by carefully summarizing can investors gradually improve their investment ability, avoid risks, and strive for profitability.
　　
　　5Better miss than make mistakes - opportunities are always present, and seizing them requires a pair of bright eyes rather than quietly waiting for an empty opportunity.
　　
　　6Develop investment plans that are suitable for oneself - life requires planning, investment requires planning, and investment is not an overnight process. Only by strictly executing can one profit from it. So how to become a profiteer in the gold investment market is crucial. Think about how profitable you have been since investing.
　　
Full guidance time: early7：00In the early morning of the next day2：00(It never stops on weekends and can be consulted at any time) Entering the market is risky, and investment needs to be cautious.
　　
Wen/Li Wen Dianjin(Guidance and consultation with Weixin:ldw6659）