Li Wen Dianjin:7.30加息预期即将尘埃落定，黄金原油大单边一触即发

　　周一国际金银整体呈震荡上行趋势，虽然国际gold在晚间一度短线下挫逾7美元，但随着美元走软黄金在尾盘持续拉升，较日低反弹超11美元，最终强势收涨。不过，有分析认为由于市场对美联储降息的押注有所缓和，金价的上行空间受到一定压制，后续表现未必会保持强势。另外，美联储前主席耶伦表示，支持降息25个基点。耶伦认为，全球经济已经走软，美国通胀率也依然低迷，虽然这并不意味着美联储要开启一个全新的宽松周期，但小幅降息还是合适的。
　　
Tuesday（7month30日）亚洲时段，油价走高，因市场猜测美联储的潜在降息将会提升石油需求。此外，刚刚缓和的中东地缘局势有再度升温的迹象，也支撑油价上行。伊朗外交部美根本不想谈判，没有打算寻求对话。但需要警惕的是，由于美消费数据疲软，IEA连续第二个月下调了对石油需求增长的预测，需求前景低迷始终是打压油价上行空间的直接因素。留意次日04:30U.S.AAPIcrude oil库存变化，料短线左右油价波动。
　　
　　李文点金个人观点：随着市场对全球经济放缓、避险紧张局势、英国脱欧以及令人烦恼的通胀压力缺乏等系列问题的担忧加剧，目前投资者普遍预期美联储将在7month30day-31日的会议上宣布降息。与此同时，从美联储利率futures来看，市场对今年7Month9Month and12月都有降息的预期。此外，市场对今年四季度美联储再一次降息的预期非常高，甚至40%的市场人士认为9月美联储就会第二次降息。李文点金认为，在美联储会议召开之前，市场较为谨慎，但无论美联储是否偏向鸽派，黄金都将会获得支撑。但是在降息25个基点后的情况下，金价最有可能下跌，并测试1400dollar/Ounce level.
　　
————Analysis of Gold Market
　　
　　投资者在观察债券市场大幅降息预期时应谨慎。由于美联储的行动力度料不及市场预期，金价今年可能已见顶。如果美联储不采取真正激进的降息措施，就很难看到金价走高。如果今年降息四次，那么你就会爱上黄金，但如果美联储在7月份降息，到今年年底可能还会再降息一次，那么黄金可能已经有了最好的表现。如果英国无协议脱欧风险进一步攀升，则市场避险情绪将升温，届时黄金将获得广泛买盘提振。反之，若英国脱欧问题意外得以妥善解决，届时市场避险情绪大幅降温，黄金恐遭全面大幅抛售。
　　
Gold from4小时来看，黄金暂时呈现相当窄幅的交投，整体黄金维持在1430-1414区间内震荡运行，由于长时间的震荡，均线方面处于纠结状态未有任何参考作用MACD红色动能柱显现后不变，且实体较窄，KDJ随机指标略偏向下，但有形成死叉的可能性出现，暗示黄金短线上涨动能不足，或展开一定程度的回撤。在1430-1414区间突破前，继续看待黄金持续改区间内的震荡。综合来看，今日操作思路上李文点金个人建议回调做多为主，反弹做空为辅，上方重点关注1433-1435Frontline resistance, short-term focus below1415-1420Frontline support. The market is constantly changing, and more market analysis and operational suggestions can be linked/系李文点金微信（ldw6659），每日行情分析、解.套策略、中长线布局指导尽在其中！
　　
Suggestions for short-term operation of gold:
　　
　　1Suggestions1415Do not break long, stop loss1410, Objective1420-1425；
　　
　　2Suggestions1434Stop loss without breaking short1439, Objective1429-1425；
　　
————Analysis of crude oil market
　　
　　伊朗和俄罗斯将在波斯湾地区举行联合演习的消息令本已紧张的有关伊朗政治风险进一步加剧,导致原油供应担忧升温,以及中每重启贸易谈判,尽管取得进展的可能性不高,支持油价周一上涨。不过全球经济增长放缓的担忧日益加剧,以及其对原油需求前景的不利影响,再加之美国第二季度GDP数据乐观,美联储本周大幅降息概率下降,美元全线走强,继续抑制了油价反弹。
　　
　　周线收了一个带上影线的阴十字星，原油价格上周维持震荡走势，上周最高点57.60附近，最低55.40附近，日线上，5个交易日中4天收盘基本都围绕在56.00nearby.at presentK线运行在布林带中轨下方，布林带张口偏下下行风险，周线上方依旧承压于五日均线上方57.8阻力承跌下跌。MACD在零轴下方死叉运行，绿色动能柱，指标弱势减弱。周线上上周没有直接跌破支撑下方55关键支撑点位，本周收取十字星K线也会预示本周可能周线原油会有反弹上涨动力，不跌破就会涨起来。但日内行情大概率还是会以延续回落调整为主，反弹为辅，上方关注57.6的压制，只要不企稳，那么短线回调是大概率事件。综合来看，今日操作思路上李文点金个人建议回调做多为主，反弹做空为辅，上方重点关注57.9-57.6Frontline resistance, short-term focus below56.3-56.5Frontline support. The market is constantly changing, and more market analysis and operational suggestions can be linked/系李文点金微信（ldw6659），每日行情分析、解.套策略、中长线布局指导尽在其中！
　　
Suggestions for short-term crude oil operations:
　　
　　1Suggestions56.3Do not break long, stop loss55.8, Objective56.8-57.0；
　　
　　2Suggestions57.6Stop loss without breaking short58.1, Objective57.1-56.8；
　　
How to invest in gold correctly for beginners
　　
　　1Control emotions - Investors must be calm and control their emotions. They must calmly respond to sudden changes in the market, otherwise they will miss out on opportunities due to indecision. It is best to be prepared to deal with various possibilities before entering the market, so that when encountering sudden changes in the market, one may not feel too surprised and at a loss.
　　
　　2Starting from small transactions - For newcomers to the market, it is necessary to start with small scale transactions, gradually grasp the trading rules and accumulate experience, and then gradually increase positions.
　　
　　3Avoid being eager for quick success and instant benefit - there should be no desire for quick success and instant benefit in transactions. Investors should not enter the market based on their subjective desires in trading. Successful investors generally strictly separate their emotions from trading activities to avoid the market trend being opposite to personal wishes and bearing heavier risks.
　　
　　4Be prepared to accept failure at any time - Gold investment carries risks, and trading failure is inevitable throughout the entire transaction. It is also an important way for investors to gradually learn from and accumulate experience. When faced with investment failure, only by carefully summarizing can investors gradually improve their investment ability, avoid risks, and strive for profitability.
　　
　　5Better miss than make mistakes - opportunities are always present, and seizing them requires a pair of bright eyes rather than quietly waiting for an empty opportunity.
　　
　　6Develop investment plans that are suitable for oneself - life requires planning, investment requires planning, and investment is not an overnight process. Only by strictly executing can one profit from it. So how to become a profiteer in the gold investment market is crucial. Think about how profitable you have been since investing.
　　
Full guidance time: early7：00In the early morning of the next day2：00(It never stops on weekends and can be consulted at any time) Entering the market is risky, and investment needs to be cautious.
　　
Wen/Li Wen Dianjin(Guidance and consultation with Weixin:ldw6659）