MBG Markets：英国欧盟呛声击溃英镑，日内聚焦美国6monthPCE

　　
大摩警告产业失衡，美元连阳延续(DXY)
　　
Technical aspect:美元指数上一交易日震幅达27Individual points, closing up0.06%, Near7个交易日收出6根阳线。日线BOLL(20)布林中轨趋于上行，汇价持续贴近布林上轨走高；日线MA5,10,20Construct multi period golden fork resonance,MA5,10双线趋于上行，汇价运行于MA5上方；日线MACD(12,26,9)阳柱势能较前一交易日增大；日线RSI(14)to65-66一线运行，运行斜率较小趋于走平。上方关注前期高点98.50Below support attention5日均线得失，短期滞涨建议以回撤突破5日均线为信号。
　　
Fundamentals:摩根士丹利发布报告称：美国二季度GDP数据显示，内需为当前美国经济做出了主要贡献，而供应端已开始放缓；客运量自年初来加速增长，但货运量却接近于停滞；零售销售增长迅速而强劲，而制造业生产则呈现停滞；资本支出的疲软可能导致就业的疲软，进而导致家庭支出衰减。摩根大通警告称，市场可能过度押注了美联储年内降息的幅度，各类风险资产和避险资产当前出现“全盘上涨”，新兴市场主权债务的高配头寸接近触及2005年以来的高位；投资者的预期似乎有些过于乐观。
　　
英国欧盟针锋相对，英镑隔夜崩跌(GBP/USD)
　　
Technical aspect:英镑兑美元上一交易日震幅达169Points, closing down1.28%。 Daily lineBOLL(20)趋于开口，布林中轨趋于下行，汇价于布林下轨下方极端超卖位置运行；日线MA5,10,20Construct multi period dead fork resonance,MA5,10Double track trend downward, exchange rate under pressureMA5Below; Daily lineMACD(12,26,9)阴柱势能较大，势能较前一交易日增大；日线RSI(14)to24-25一线运行，进入超卖区间。在汇价企稳5日均线上方之前，行情难言见底。下方支撑关注下图所示ABC段的斐波那契拓展线100%Expansion position1.2120。
　　
Fundamentals:周一，英国新任首相约翰逊强调，英国仍有可能达成脱欧协议，但前提是需要和欧盟达成新的自由贸易协定；如果欧盟不肯就担保协议作出改变，英国就必须为无协议脱欧做好准备。随后，欧盟发言人直接表态，欧盟方面正在为无协议脱欧做准备。消息传出后，英国十年期国债收益率跌至0.640%, for2016年以来的最低水平。英国保守党议员莱特文：我们必须承认有可能无协议脱欧；议会或无法阻止这一情况。英国外交大臣拉布：政府正为无协议脱欧做准备。
　　
工业产出疲软，美日高位盘整(USD/JPY)
　　
Technical aspect:The USD/JPY experienced a significant fluctuation in the previous trading day48Individual points, closing up0.2%。 Daily lineBOLL(20)布林中轨趋于上行，汇价贴近布林上轨；日线MA5,10,20Construct multi period golden fork resonance,MA5,10双线趋于上行，汇价运行于MA5上方；日线MACD(12,26,9)阳柱势能较前一交易日缩减；日线RSI(14)to57-58一线运行，运行斜率较大趋于下行。下方支撑关注布林中轨位置108.25Attention to resistance above109.00前高及整数关口。
　　
Fundamentals:Japan6月工业产出月率初值报-3.6%, creating2018year1月最大降幅；年率初值报-4.1%，远逊于预期及前值。近期一系列疲软的经济数据显示，全球经济增长放缓和贸易冲突使日本依赖出口的经济遭受损失。韩国政府目前计划采取多种举措，以应对日本方面对韩国采取的贸易限制措施，同时将尽早将日本对韩国采取贸易限制措施一事向世界贸易组织提出正式投诉。日本政府：将2019Actual fiscal yearGDPGrowth rate from1.3%Down to0.9%。有评论称称，持久的贸易摩擦对日本经济的拖累加大，使得日本政府不得以下调了经济预期评估；但日本政府的预估增幅仍高出民间分析师预估近一倍。
　　
　　
　　
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