MBG Markets：欧央行信号混乱汇市巨震，美企信心萎靡引发担忧

　　
耐用品订单数据走强，美企信心低迷仍引担忧(DXY)
　　
Technical aspect:美元指数上一交易日震幅达43Individual points, closing up0.11%。 Daily lineBOLL(20)布林中轨趋于上行，汇价连续三个交易日贴近布林上轨运行，多头占优明显；日线MA5,10,20Construct multi period golden fork resonance,MA5,10双线趋于上行，汇价运行于MA5上方，隔夜回踩MA5触发低位买盘；日线MACD(12,26,9)阳柱势能较前一交易日增大；日线RSI(14)to62-63一线运行，运行斜率较小趋于走平。上方阻力关注前期高点98.40Below support attention5日均线得失及97.75frontline.
　　
Fundamentals:U.S.A6月耐用品订单环比增长2%，显著优于预期0.7%及前值-1.3%；6月扣除飞机非国防资本耐用品（核心耐用品）订单环比增长1.9%，显著优于预期0.2%及前值0.5%。机构评论认为，耐用品订单数据虽然好于预期，但企业投资信心萎缩料的预期料将不会改变；企业投资疲软加上库存闲置，以及波音的飞机失事等因素，将拖累美国制造业和周五的GDP数据。美国至7month20Record of initial claims for unemployment benefits for the current week20.6Ten thousand people, creating this year4月中以来最低，四周均值表明失业率几乎不变，就业市场依然强劲。
　　
欧央行信号混乱，欧元巨震收平(EUR/USD)
　　
Technical aspect:The previous trading day saw a significant fluctuation in the euro against the US dollar86个点，微涨0.03%，基本收平。日线BOLL(20)趋于开口，布林三轨下行构筑整齐下行通道线；日线MA5,10,20构多周期死叉共振，汇价隔夜小幅上探至5日均线上方后迅速回落，连续第5个交易日收于5日均线以下；日线MACD(12,26,9)The potential energy of the Yin column has decreased compared to the previous trading day; Daily lineRSI(14)to34-35一线运行。技术指标层面，空头占绝对优势。上方阻力关注5日均线位置，短期止跌建议以连续两日收于5日均线上方为信号。下方支撑关注前低1.1100Integer level.
　　
Fundamentals:Germany7monthIFO商业景气指数录得95.7, for2013year4月以来最低。经济学家指出，经济衰退正在德国工业所有重要部门中蔓延。隔夜，欧洲央行利率决议如期维持三大指标利率不变。调整前瞻性指引称，预计将保持现有关键利率水平不变或者更低水平至少至2020年上半年；消息发布后，欧元短线下探。后续新闻发布会上，德拉基表示本次会议没有就降息和降息规模作出讨论，引发欧元大涨，刷新日高。稍晚，有市场消息称，欧洲央行委员会一致同意在9月份加码刺激措施，但央行部分官员质疑重启QE的有效性。欧洲央行昨日所传递信息十分混乱，致使欧元盘中巨震。
　　
数据、政局双利空，英镑多头稍欠力度(GBP/USD)
　　
Technical aspect:英镑兑美元上一交易日震幅达81Points, closing down0.26%。 Daily lineBOLL(20)趋于收口，布林中轨趋于下行，汇价持续承压于中轨下方；日线MA5,10,20Construct multi period dead fork resonance,MA5,10Double track trend downward, exchange rate under pressureMA5Below; Daily lineMACD(12,26,9)The potential energy of the positive column is relatively small, and the potential energy is reduced compared to the previous trading day; Daily lineRSI(14)to41-42一线运行，运行斜率较小趋于走平。英镑跌破100Hours and200小时均线交集处1.2470一线，短线仍承压；技术指标层面多头未完成关键反扑，仍存进一步下探可能。下方关注前低1.2380。上方关注布林中轨得失，升破中轨后GBPUSD有望看向1.2580的平台位置。
　　
Fundamentals:britain7monthCBI零售销售差值录得-16，虽较前值-42好转但不及市场预期，其处于负值区间的时间为2011年以来最长。英国工业联合会表示对零售数据连续三个月下降十分担忧。英国首相约翰逊重申，其和所有大臣们将致力于在10month31日脱欧，不论发生什么情况；当前的脱欧协议对议会和英国人来说是不可接受的；准备好了无协议脱欧下的所有必要资金。约翰逊发言后，英镑不跌反涨，但多头稍欠力度，日线最终收阴。据悉，今日起至9month3日，英国议会进入夏季休会，这意味着在一段很长时间内可能不会有任何实质性的脱欧进展。在这一背景下，市场投机性仓位有所调整，从IMM持仓数据来看，英镑投机性抛售趋势已出现明显好转。
　　
　　
　　
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