MBG Markets：疲软制造业拖累欧元，利空出尽英镑否极泰来

　　
7monthPMI读数惨淡，美指险守98frontline(DXY)
　　
Technical aspect:美元指数上一交易日震幅达28Points, closing down0.02%Be cautious and cautious98一线。日线BOLL(20)布林中轨趋于上行，汇价贴近布林上轨，三轨有望构筑上行通道线；日线MA5,10,20Construct multi period golden fork resonance,MA5,10双线趋于上行，汇价运行于MA5上方；日线MACD(12,26,9)阳柱势能较前一交易日增大；日线RSI(14)to61-62一线运行，运行斜率较小趋于走平。上方阻力关注前期高点98.40Below support attention5日均线得失。
　　
Fundamentals:U.S.A7monthMarkitmanufacturingPMIInitial value recorded50, creating2009year9月以来新低，制造产出指数、制造就业指数分别创出2009year8Month2010year1New low since the beginning of the month. U.S.A7monthMarkitService industryPMIInitial value report52.2，稍好于预期及前值，但服务业就业指数录得2017year4New low since the beginning of the month.PMI数据表明美国经济第三季度开局疲软，经济增速年率或仅为1.6%。隔夜，美国3Month period and10年期国债收益率曲线再次倒挂。据悉，美国前端利率下降、国债收益率曲线趋陡倒挂可能对日元等反周futures币构成提振。摩根大通提示其客户，考虑到美国持续上升的赤字和不乐观的经济前景，美元相对其它一篮子货币（以及gold）很容易贬值。
　　
制造业状况再恶化，欧元跌势不止(EUR/USD)
　　
Technical aspect:The previous trading day saw a significant fluctuation in the euro against the US dollar29Points, closing down0.08%，欧元收出三连阴。日线BOLL(20)布林中轨趋于下行，汇价贴近布林下轨，三轨构筑下行通道线；日线MA5,10,20Construct multi period dead fork resonance,MA5,10Double track trend downward, exchange rate under pressureMA5Below; Daily lineMACD(12,26,9)阴柱势能较前一交易日增大；日线RSI(14)to32-33Running on the front line, with a small slope and tending to flatten out. Attention to resistance above5日均线位置，短期止跌建议以连续两日收于5日均线上方为信号，下方支撑关注前低1.1105frontline.
　　
Fundamentals:France7Monthly manufacturing industryPMIInitial value report50, Chuangjin4个月新低。德国7Monthly manufacturing industryPMIInitial value report43.1, creating7年以来新低，表明德国进入技术性衰退的风险有所提高。欧元区7Monthly comprehensivePMIInitial value report51.5, for2012year12The lowest since the beginning of the month.PMI数据显示本季度欧元区经济增速可能为0.2%or0.1%，经济前景极为黯淡。今日建议关注晚间欧洲央行利率决议。荷兰国际集团称，最可能的情形为：维持利率水平和对通胀及经济前景的预期不变，修改前瞻性指引释放降息信号，暗示如有必要将重启量化宽松；在这种情形下，预计EURUSDfall to1.10。
　　
英国内阁大换血，英镑止跌否极泰来(GBP/USD)
　　
Technical aspect:英镑兑美元上一交易日震幅达96Individual points, closing up0.39%。 Daily lineBOLL(20)收口明显，表明单边趋势暂缓，汇价隔夜上探布林中轨一线未破，多头力量稍显不足；日线MA5,10双线趋黏合；日线MACD(12,26,9)阳柱势能较小，DIFF线稍有走高趋势；日线RSI(14)to44-45一线运行，持续承压。英镑当前自昨日高点回落至100Hours and200小时均线交集处1.2480附近，若跌破此位置或重回跌势。上方关注布林中轨得失，升破中轨后GBPUSD有望看向1.2580的平台位置。
　　
Fundamentals:英国内阁大换血，多名大臣被解职。目前共16名内阁大臣离职，其中被解职的有10名，辞职4名，退休2名。英国内阁重组加剧了英镑波动。约翰逊在就职演讲中强调，10month31日必脱欧，没有“如果”或“但是”。欧盟则在前一日重申不会重谈已与特蕾莎·梅谈毕的脱欧协议。北欧联合银行认为约翰逊无法带领英国走出“拖欧”困境，待其意识到不大可能在几个月内与欧盟达成协议，也不可能在不提前大选的情况下无协议脱欧，预计英国将再度延长脱欧期限至2020year3Month.
　　
　　
　　
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