Li Wen Dianjin:7.15黄金冲高回落还会涨吗？原油走势分析及操作布局解套

The way to trade lies in change, which leads to communication, communication leads to achievement, and achievement leads to success; The fundamental essence of trading lies in stability, striving for progress while maintaining stability, and then avoiding risks and disruptions in order to lock in profits and avoid losses! The teacher is not a god. It is unrealistic to simply be accurate, go short and go up, and invest all the time facing certain risks. What the teacher needs to do is to constantly control risks based on the specific positions of the students, minimize risks, and consolidate our profits!
　　
　　goldMarket trend analysis——
　　
Monday(7month15day)亚市盘初，金价开于1417.23dollar/盎司微幅反弹后，即刻回落，一度触及1410美元支撑附近。因全球经济放缓的担忧情绪、全球贸易的紧张局势、地缘局势等因素亦都支持金价。加上美联储主席鲍威尔几乎确定本月将进行十年来的首次降息。这令金价的低点不断上移，且暂时仍稳居1400美元上方。日内将重点关注美联储的“三号人物”纽约联储主席威廉姆斯将发表讲话。后市的关注点在于美联储将降多少，以及之后的计划和言论。
　　
　　展望本周基本面因素；美国将公布素有恐怖数据之称的零售销售数据，还有包括工业产出、房市数据、美联储公布经济褐皮书、消费信心等。此外，美联储鲍威尔讲话等也要留意，预计将引发本周市场波动。如数据弱于预期，则可能会进一步呼吁美联储大幅降息，并推动金价继续反弹。另外，欧元区、英国和加拿大等地都将公布通胀数据，投资者将透过这些数据判断各国央行的后续货币政策。此外，美联储降息前景、中东局势、英国脱欧等焦点仍然有可能被市场重点炒作。
　　
　　技术面美元指数来看，走势在冲高布林带上通道之后遇阻回落，并跌至中轨支撑，目前虽亚盘早间在此支撑有所反弹，但KDJ指标以及死叉转下并扩散发展，RSIAlso in the70阻力线遇阻，MACD红色动能柱减弱，快慢线转下有形成死叉看空迹象，后市有跌破中轨支撑至96.10的力量，下方重点关注96.76支撑情况。金金价连续收取8连阳，虽近3周有回撤情况，高点也未有突破新创，但走盘仍是维持在1160-1439斐波拉契回撤线23.6%上方，以及5周期线上方，另外，MACD指标红色动能柱扩张，快慢线金叉向上完好，KDJ再次上线发展，RSI指标也完好运行在看涨的发展上，综合表明市场看涨意愿强烈，多头仍占据优势。重点关注近3周的高点位置附近，突破将迎来爆发性的上涨。
　　
　　日线级别跌宕起伏，目前仍维持在宽幅区间之内，不过遇阻的高位趋于平衡，但低点却在陆续升高，这有一种形成看涨旗型的状态信号，另外，金价完好运行在布林带中轨上方，以及各短中长均线上方，加上MACD绿动能柱减弱，KDJ聚合大概率将形成金叉看涨形态，RSI也拐头向上，短期仍偏为上涨。上方重点关注1425Resistance near the US dollar, and1430美元上方阻力。下方则关注1401and1395USD support.4小时盘面上看，金价维持在100日周线线为支撑震荡攀升，MACD指标绿色动能柱减弱殆尽将出红，KDJ已经转为金叉向上，RSIAlso developing upwards,K线走势目前维持在各短中长均线上方，预示短期走势仍有上线的空间。日内支撑关注1408-1403,Resistance focus1419and1425附近。操作上李文点金建议回调做多为主。手上有单子被套的可与我沟通，由于李文点金不知道你们套单的点位和仓位的具体情况，不好给出相应的解套策略，请添/加李文点金官\/Micro:ldw6659Unlock your order.
　　
　　7.15Golden Strategy:
　　
　　1Step back1405-1408Long in batches, stop loss1402, Objective1415-1420Break through and reduce holdings;
　　
　　2Rebound1423Short selling, stop loss128, Objective1417-1413；
　　
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　　crude oilMarket trend analysis——
　　
　　飓风消散后美国墨西哥湾复工，美原油周一短线回调。本周一中国6月各项数据好于预期（除去GDP年率），对美原油需求产生正面影响，此外英国也卷入美伊地缘政治紧张局势，美国石油钻井总数下滑，夏季用油高峰后续行情发酵，为美原油提供一定支撑。美原油上周因墨西哥湾风暴来袭，加之美能源署库存超预期下滑，企稳60关口。但在周一亚洲市场早盘美原油并未反弹，尽管中国6月各项数据（除GDP外）好于预期，尤其是零售数据大幅好于预期，但是国际贸.易局势风险有所升温，令投资者对原油需求仍存疑虑。多空因素交织，投资者需密切关注本周随时可能爆出的美伊问题新动向，若伊朗与美国谈判无果，美原油多头将上攻；贸.易乌云或令美原油跌破60关口，料迎来空头回补。
　　
　　7month15日，油价小跌，因受国际贸易影响，料录得至少27年来最缓慢经济增速拖累，这对原油需求有正面影响。但分析师称大规模刺激的空间有限，因担心债务水平和结构性风险。另一方面，墨西哥湾大型油企周一纷纷复产，上周末热带风暴导致美国墨西哥湾石油产量下降73%, or13810000 barrels/日，对油价构成了支撑。
　　
　　原油强势收涨，周初整理起稳在57.0上方走强，一度连阳上涨收复此前高点，且刷新至60.90高点。周尾后两个交易日稍有停顿修正，且伴随小阴线回撤，但周线整体收在高位，开盘价偏低，收盘在60.20一线。周线仍收成中阳线，日图伴随两个星线整理，星K线实体较小，暂时定义为整理修正。原油4小时有一定时间的持续整理修正，但是同样回撤的K线实体较小，以横向整理修正为主。目前贴近中轨附近的支撑。
　　
　　小时线连续探高承压回撤，上周五下探后59.90没能启稳进一步破高，而尾盘及今日开盘有倾向回落倾向。小时K线显示日内短线或许还有一定的空间回撤。而周线和日线属于上涨趋势，关注本周回调之后在哪个位置启稳，小时线还有回调需求，结合回撤后的形态再临盘安排；强势行情回调不能过深，否则深了的话就会走成震荡，看欧盘回撤后能否快速收回。综合来看，今日操作思路上李文点金个人建议以反弹高空为主，回调做多为辅，李文点金建议原油今日上方压制关注60.4-60.9一线，下方进一步看59.7-59.2-58.7一线。盘间行情时时变化具体操作策略以李文点金微芯ldw6659实战为准！
　　
　　7.15Crude Oil Strategy:
　　
　　1Below59.7-59.3Long in batches, stop loss5个单，目标60.2-60.8；
　　
　　2Above61.0Short selling, stop loss61.5, Objective60.1-59.5，破位持有中线看57.3；
　　
How to invest in gold correctly for beginners
　　
　　1Control emotions - Investors must be calm and control their emotions. They must calmly respond to sudden changes in the market, otherwise they will miss out on opportunities due to indecision. It is best to be prepared to deal with various possibilities before entering the market, so that when encountering sudden changes in the market, one may not feel too surprised and at a loss.
　　
　　2Starting from small transactions - For newcomers to the market, it is necessary to start with small scale transactions, gradually grasp the trading rules and accumulate experience, and then gradually increase positions.
　　
　　3Avoid being eager for quick success and instant benefit - there should be no desire for quick success and instant benefit in transactions. Investors should not enter the market based on their subjective desires in trading. Successful investors generally strictly separate their emotions from trading activities to avoid the market trend being opposite to personal wishes and bearing heavier risks.
　　
　　4Be prepared to accept failure at any time - Gold investment carries risks, and trading failure is inevitable throughout the entire transaction. It is also an important way for investors to gradually learn from and accumulate experience. When faced with investment failure, only by carefully summarizing can investors gradually improve their investment ability, avoid risks, and strive for profitability.
　　
　　5Better miss than make mistakes - opportunities are always present, and seizing them requires a pair of bright eyes rather than quietly waiting for an empty opportunity.
　　
　　6Develop investment plans that are suitable for oneself - life requires planning, investment requires planning, and investment is not an overnight process. Only by strictly executing can one profit from it. So how to become a profiteer in the gold investment market is crucial. Think about how profitable you have been since investing.
　　
Full guidance time: early7：00In the early morning of the next day2：00（周末也从不停歇，可供随时咨询）市有风险，投资需谨慎。
　　
Wen/Li Wen Dianjin(ldw6659）