Yan Jie's reading:7.2Iron ore burst900At the gateway, increasing demand is prone to rise but difficult to fall

　　7month2Daily news, domestic productsfuturesIn the afternoon trading, there was a significant decline, but iron orePTAFutures rose significantly, with iron ore futures continuing their previous upward trend and major contracts rising more than5%Above, the period price exceeds9At the beginning of the word, up to904.5element/Ton area.
　　
　　As of the end of the afternoon trading, the main force of iron ore rose5.20%Report900.0element/Tonne integer level, highest904.5element/Tons.
　　
　　6Since the beginning of the month, iron ore futures have made a strong breakthrough and reached a new high in nearly five and a half years. According to relevant sources, the steel mills did not experience expected production reductions, and the supply side's Australian shipment volume did not exceed expectations, resulting in a continuous decline in iron ore inventory. estimate7There is still room for iron ore prices to rise before the end of the month.

　　

　　Significant increase in demand:
　　
　　7month1Today, iron ore futures continue to maintain a strong pattern, the main force1909Contract maximum to874.5element/Tons, creating2014year1month9New high in recent days, closing873element/Ton4.74%。
　　
This year is at the end of the previous iron ore production expansion cycle, BrazilVALEMining accidents and hurricanes in Australia have caused a decrease in supply. At the same time, the domestic production of molten iron has significantly increased, resulting in a corresponding increase in demand for iron ore. Therefore, the supply and demand fundamentals of iron ore have rapidly shifted from loose to relatively tight, and the overall international and domestic economic situation has remained stable. This has led to a rapid and significant rebound in the price of iron ore, which was relatively undervalued compared to other bulk products in the early stage, and has repeatedly hit new highs in recent years.
　　
　　6Monthly iron ore futures1909The contract price has once again broken through the rise strongly, mainly due to the fact that the long-term steel mills have not experienced the expected reduction in production, the production of molten iron has remained high, and the supply side's Australian shipment volume has not exceeded expectations, resulting in a continuous decline in iron ore inventory.
　　
　　There is still room for improvement in the short term:
　　
From a fundamental perspective, on the supply side, events such as dam failures and maintenance will continue to have an impact on the supply side. On the Brazilian side, although recentlyVALEofBrucutuRemaining mining area2000The production capacity of 10000 tons of wet separation has resumed, and the transportation volume has rebounded in recent years, but overall it is still at a low levelVALEReconfirm2019Annual iron ore sales target(Containing pellets)by3.07-3.32Billion tons. On the Australian side, mainstream mines are basically producing at full capacity, and there is little room for short-term production increase6month19Rio Tinto officially announced that it will2019The target annual iron ore shipment volume has increased from the previous3.33-3.43100 million tons adjusted to3.2-3.3Billion tons.
　　
　　In terms of demand, short-term iron ore demand remains high.In the past two years, the marginal demand for domestic iron ore has increased, and the production enthusiasm of steel mills will be stimulated again after the increase in profits, resulting in a high level of short-term iron ore demand.
　　
　　For the future market, due to the tight supply and demand fundamentals of iron ore, it is difficult to quickly and significantly alleviate in the short term, and there is still a possibility of further decline in domestic port iron ore inventory in the later stage. At the same time, in the context of major overseas economies such as the United States entering a loose cycle, the easing of international trade situation has alleviated external pressure, and the gradual stabilization of the domestic economy under the "countercyclical" regulation. Real estate, infrastructure and other factors continue to drive the upward trend of finished products, and iron ore prices are prone to rise but difficult to fall in the short term.
　　Wen/Yan Jie Kanpan This article aims to convey more information to readers, and strategic suggestions are for reference only. Official satellite:BOLL166