MBG Markets：强劲GDP助加元走高，避险退潮致日元骤跌

　　
经济数据频频走软，美元延续低位震荡(DXY)
　　
Technical aspect:美元指数上一交易日震幅达26Individual points, closing up0.04%，延续低位窄幅震荡。日线BOLL(20)趋于收口，布林中轨趋于下行，汇价持续承压于中轨下方；日线MA5,10,20Construct multi period dead fork resonance,MA5稍趋走平；日线MACD(12,26,9)The potential energy of the Yin column has decreased compared to the previous trading day; Daily lineRSI(14)to37-38一线运行，运行斜率较小趋于走平。上方阻力96.50, lower support95.85。
　　
Fundamentals:U.S.A5Monthly CorePCEPrice index annual rate recorded1.6%, USA5月实际个人消费支出月率录得0.2%，不及市场预期。美国密歇根大学消费者信心报告显示，消费者对美国长期通胀的预期已降至历史新低2.4%。 U.S.A6Month ChicagoPMIRecorded49.7, creating2016year2月以来新低，作为全美制造业的领先指标，该数据的走软意味着美国制造业产业前景堪忧。经济增长放缓及通胀压力温和，可能为美联储下个月降息提供理由。
　　
经济景气指数萎靡，欧元盘整微跌(USD/CAD)
　　
Technical aspect:美元兑加元上一交易日震幅达46Points, closing down0.22%。 Daily lineBOLL(20)趋于开口，布林三轨下行构整齐下行通道线，汇价持续贴近下轨一线；日线MA5,10,20Construct multi period dead fork resonance,MA5,10Double track trend downward, exchange rate under pressureMA5Below; Daily lineMACD(12,26,9)阴柱势能较大，势能较前一交易日缩减，DIFF、DEA双线于极端低位运行；日线RSI(14)跌破超卖区间上沿，于26-27一线运行。MACD、RSI均释放出超卖信号，技术面有一定反弹需求。上方阻力1.3115, lower support1.3060。
　　
Fundamentals:Canada4monthGDPMonthly rate recorded0.3%，逊于前值水平但显著优于市场预期0.1%，主要得益于采矿、采石、油气开采及批发贸易的增长。当前全球央行货币政策基调转鸽背景下，加拿大强劲的经济令加央行得以暂不考虑降息选项，这一状况持续支撑加元走高。加拿大帝国商业银行：完全基于商业前景调查指标，加拿大第三季度经济增速或达2%左右，略高于潜力水平；结合GDP报告，美元兑加元USD/CAD或测试1.3000的看涨趋势线。
　　
避险情绪退潮，美日跳空高开(USD/JPY)
　　
Technical aspect:The USD/JPY experienced a significant fluctuation in the previous trading day37Individual points, closing up0.16%。今日亚盘时段，USDJPY跳空高开26点，破位日线BOLL(20)布林中轨，布林三轨趋于走平；日线MA5,10构金叉，MA5趋于走高；日线MACD(12,26,9)DIFFLine on0轴下方低位上穿DEA构金叉，双线均趋上行，阳柱势能持续增大；日线RSI(14)to48一线运行，逼近50多空分水岭。日内建议关注USDJPY会否下行修补跳空缺口。上方阻力108.80, lower support107.80。
　　
Fundamentals:得益于避险情绪退潮，USDJPY跳空高开，亚洲股市普涨，日经225指数高开1.4%. Japan6Monthly manufacturing industryPMIFinal value recorded49.3，跌至三个月新低；出口订单新增数量连续11个月减少，为纪录来最长连跌。日本央行短观调查：日本大型制造业企业预计2019/2020财年美元兑日元USD/JPY平均水平在109.35。
　　
　　
　　
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