Xingye Investment: The US dollar is in a state of despair Euro surges to three-month high

Xingye Investment: The US dollar is in a state of despair Euro surges to three-month high
2019year6month24day
euro/dollar
Last Friday Euro/The US dollar has risen sharply for the third consecutive trading day, reaching its highest point1.1376Breaking a three-month high, it surged nearly 100 points on the same day and closed at1.1372Continuously recovering from the previous decline. The further expansion of the euro's gains was mainly boosted by the consecutive heavy declines in the US dollar index. Last Friday, the United States announced6Monthly manufacturing industryPMIinitial value2009year9The weakest level since the beginning of the month, recorded50.1Service industryPMISlide down to2016year2The lowest level recorded since the beginning of the month50.7Both fell short of expectations, as weak data offset previously positive home sales data and strengthened market sentiment towards the Federal Reserve7The expectation of monthly interest rate cuts has accelerated the decline of the US dollar96Near the checkpoint, it brings upward momentum to the euro. In addition, the Eurozone released good data for France and Germany on that day, with France6monthMarkitmanufacturingPMIThe initial value is52, better than expected50.8;Germany6Monthly manufacturing industryPMIThe initial value is45.4, also higher than expected44.6After the data was released, the euro rose sharply in the short term during trading. After several consecutive days of significant gains, investors need to be cautious of the settlement market suppressing the euro. Pay attention to Germany within the day6monthIFOBusiness prosperity/Current situation index.
The daily chart has rebounded for three consecutive days, correcting the previous decline. Focus on whether it can break through during the day1.14Gateway.4The hourly chart random indicator has entered the overbought zone and has a tendency to fall back, beware of a high-level decline in the exchange rate.1The current upward movement on the hourly chart can temporarily slow down, but there may be a downward risk. Not broken within the day1.14Short positions can be made below this level.
Support position:1.1330/1.1300/1.1260
Resistance level:1.1415/1.1450/1.1510
pound/dollar
As Brexit candidate Johnson becomes more likely to become the next UK Prime Minister, investors are increasingly concerned that his government may increase the likelihood of a no deal Brexit. And last Friday, most EU leaders stated that they would not renegotiate the Brexit agreement with the UK, leading to a rise in pessimism and causing the pound to fall against Asian and European measures0.3%, lowest touch1.2641However, the weakening of the US dollar index has pushed the pound forwardVRebound and quickly rose, eventually recording a fourth consecutive trading day of gains, closing at1.2744Approaching the top of the short-term consolidation interval. The data in the UK is relatively scarce within the day, and we will continue to monitor the dynamics of the Prime Minister election. It is expected that the risk of a no deal Brexit may cause the pound to stop at the top of the range1.2755frontline.
Technically, the daily chart continues to rebound to the top of the recent consolidation range1.2755Frontline, pay attention to whether it can break through this resistance within the day.4Above the hour chart1.2755The strong resistance on the front line is expected to limit its further upward space.1The upward momentum on the hourly chart has slowed down, and it is expected to decline from the high level. If the resistance at the top of the range is not broken during the day, short positions can be taken below this level.
Support position:1.2700/1.2640/1.2600
Resistance level:1.2755/1.2800/1.2850
dollar/Japanese yen
Last Friday USD/The Japanese yen experienced a fluctuating trend during trading. Affected by geopolitical risks between the US and Iran, the rising risk aversion in the Asian market last Friday stimulated bullish buying of the Japanese yen and the US dollar/The Japanese yen fluctuated and fell to its lowest point of the day during this period107.03, refresh this year1month1Low levels since the beginning of the day. But the rebound of the US dollar index is driving the US dollar forward/Japanese yen107The checkpoint stabilizes and oscillates upwards, rising to107.70At the end of the trading session, it fell back again and finally recorded a cross star bullish line, closing at107.34Temporarily easing the recent decline. Regarding future trends, investment banks have analyzed that international geopolitical and trade risks still play a role in boosting safe haven demand for the Japanese yen. In the absence of interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, the US dollar will be traded against the Japanese yen over a three-month period107On the front line, but if the Federal Reserve starts cutting interest rates as expected, the US dollar is expected to fall against the Japanese yen105Pay attention to changes in market sentiment today.
Last Friday, a small candlestick with a longer upper shadow was recorded on the daily chart, indicating that there is still significant upward pressure and downward potential.4The overall downward trend of the hourly chart remains intact.1The hourly chart rebounded to a low levelMA50After being blocked nearby, the downward trend continues to fluctuate and there is a high risk of a downturn. Within the day, it fell below107Follow up with short selling at the checkpoint.
Support position:107.00/106.60/106.00
Resistance level:108.00/109.00/109.65
dollar/Cad
Last Friday, Canadian data showed that Canada4Monthly retail sales growth rate0.1%Less than expected growth0.2%;Monthly growth rate of core retail sales0.1%, also worse than expected0.4%After the data is released, the US dollar/The Canadian dollar has risen sharply in the short term20At the same time, the further rise in international oil prices and investors' short covering have also strengthened the US dollar/The upward mobility of the Canadian dollar, reaching its highest point1.3228However, the sharp decline in the US dollar index dragged down the US dollar/The Canadian dollar gave up some of its gains in late trading in New York and eventually recorded a moderate rebound, closing at1.3206Correct the recent decline. Today's focus is on the trends of the US dollar and international oil prices.
The current downward trend on the daily chart has slowed down and rebounded from a four month low, but the upward momentum is relatively small and the downward pressure is still heavy.4The hourly chart remains oscillating at a low level, and the random indicator is bearish.1The hour chart is currently affectedMA50The pressure is more obvious, and the material continues to be under pressure1.32Below the checkpoint. Suggestions for the day can be made on1.32Short position with light position below the checkpoint.
Support position:1.3110/1.3060/1.3000
Resistance level:1.3220/1.3300/1.3345