Xingye Investment Crude Oil Weekly Review: Demand Concerns Offset Supply Tightening Oil price rebound aborted

Industrial Investmentcrude oilWeekly review: Demand concerns offset supply tightening Oil price rebound aborted
2019year6month18day
International oil prices came under pressure again at the beginning of last week, once approaching the nearly five month low set the previous week, mainly due to the rise in US crude oil inventories and the gloomy outlook for global crude oil demand caused by the global trade situation. However, the turmoil in the Middle East andOPEC+The expected extension of the production reduction agreement has raised concerns about tight crude oil supply, limiting the downward trend of oil prices. As of the close, the United StatesWTI 7Monthly crude oilfuturesAccumulated decline throughout the week3.23%Report collection52.66dollar/Bucket, highest touch of the week54.53dollar/Bucket, lowest drop to50.71dollar/Bucket. Brent8Monthly crude oil futures have accumulated a decline throughout the week1.93%Report collection62.01dollar/Bucket, highest touch of the week63.78dollar/Bucket, lowest drop to59.54dollar/Bucket.
Last week, major energy agencies lowered their crude oil demand forecasts. US Energy Agency(EIA)In the monthly report2019Global oil demand growth forecast lowered for the year1610000 barrels/Day, to12210000 barrels/Day.OPECtake2019Global crude oil demand growth rate slows down in the year710000 barrels/Solstice11410000 barrels/In its outlook for the second half of the year, it is expected that the impact of trade disputes on global demand growth will still bring significant downside risks. International Energy Agency(IEA)In its monthly crude oil market report2019Annual oil demand growth forecast lowered1010000 barrels/Solstice12010000 barrels/Day, expected2020The growth rate of oil demand in the second half of the year is14010000 barrels/Day. Previously, data released by Chinese customs last Monday showed that China5Monthly crude oil import volume from4Record breaking month437310000 tons decline8%to4023About 10000 tons. The decline in oil imports has once again raised concerns about demand in China, the world's second-largest oil consumer.
The trade dispute between China and the United States is still ongoing, and both sides are actively engaged(indirect)Threatening the other party will inevitably drag down global economic growth, thereby suppressing demand for crude oil. US President Trump prepares to add extra value to China3250New tariffs on billions of dollars worth of exported goods, if imposed later this month20If no solution or discussion is reached at the national group meeting. Last Friday, China announced that it would increase the anti-dumping duties on seamless steel pipes imported from the United States and the European Union to60.8%The Global Times published an editorial last Thursday stating that the United States has been infected with "political fanaticism";Every policy is centered around 'America First' and serves the political objectives of the United States;The actions of the United States reveal that it is a non market economy country. In addition, Chinese official media released social comments downplaying expectations that the leaders of China and the United States will meet later this month and may bring trade negotiations back on track, and warning that Beijing's countermeasures against Washington's strategy of raising tariffs and containing technology may "become the norm". At the same time, it listed areas where China may retaliate against these tariffs and other measures such as prohibiting American companies from providing technology to Huawei. These fields include rare earth metal exports(Almost all high-tech products use rare earths)And its' unreliable 'entity list.
The market optimistically believes thatOPEC+Measures will be taken to prevent further decline in oil prices and provide some support for oil prices. UAE Energy Minister Mazruy stated last Tuesday that,OPECMember states are about to reach an agreement on extending production cuts. Russian Energy Minister Novak also hinted that Russia may support an extension of production cuts at next month's meeting of major oil producing countries. And Algeria even proposed to increase the production reduction to a daily rate18010000 barrels(Improved from the current level6010000 barrels/day)The idea. Meanwhile, Saudi Energy Minister Al Falih recently20On the sidelines of the China Group Energy and Environment Ministers' Meeting, he told reporters that,OPECAnd its allies are likely to7A consensus was reached during the meeting in Vienna in the first week of the month to extend the production reduction agreement.
At the same time, global oil supply still faces risks due to recent restrictions on diluent inflows in Venezuela, extremely high risks to Libyan oil production, and escalating tensions in the Gulf region, all of which indicate that fundamental support for oil prices still exists. Libyan National Oil Company(NOC)Last Tuesday, it was announced that it is located in Sarir, Libya(Sirte)The Saril Oilfield in the basin6month9Recently, due to high temperatures causing generator fires, its crude oil production has decreased310000 barrels/Day.
Last Thursday, two oil tankers were damaged in an accident in the Gulf of Oman, and the operator of one of them claimed that their vessel was suspected to have been attacked. This has further escalated the tense relationship between the United States and Iran. The United States accuses Iran of launching attacks on oil tankers in the Gulf of Oman near Iran and the Strait of Hormuz. Trump says Iran responsible for oil tanker attack in Strait of Hormuz;The Oman Strait will not be closed, and even if it is closed, it will not be for too long. The Iranian mission to the United Nations stated that Iran firmly denies the "baseless claims" made by the United States regarding the attack on the oil tanker in the Gulf of Oman. In addition, Iranian President Hassan?Rouhani accused the United States of taking the path of economic terrorism through its oppressive sanctions.
Commodity Futures Trading Commission of the United States(CFTC)6month14According to the report released on the day, as of6month5Solstice6month11The speculative net long position of crude oil for the current week has decreased48513Hand contract, to351655The contract has been declining for the seventh consecutive week, indicating that investors' willingness to long on crude oil continues to cool down.
In terms of inventory, the inventory data released by major institutions last week increased significantly, but the number of oil drilling in the United States sharply decreased. American Petroleum Institute(API)The latest data shows that as of6month7During the current week, US crude oil inventories increased485.210000 barrels to4.828Billion barrels, analysts expect a decrease47.210000 barrels;Cushing inventory increase236.510000 barrels;Increase in gasoline inventory82.9Ten thousand barrels, analysts expect an increase101.110000 barrels;Reduced inventory of refined oil346.1Ten thousand barrels, analysts expect an increase117.5Ten thousand barrels. US Energy Information Administration(EIA)The latest data shows that as of6month7During the current week, US crude oil inventories increased220.610000 barrels to4.855Billion barrels, creating2017year7New monthly high, market expectations decrease48.110000 barrels;Cushing crude oil inventory increases209.6Ten thousand barrels, creating2month22The largest increase since the beginning of the week;Reduced inventory of refined oil100Ten thousand barrels, market expectations increase113.810000 barrels;Increase in gasoline inventory76.4Ten thousand barrels, continuous4Weekly growth leads to increased market expectations74.310000 barrels;In addition, the domestic crude oil production in the United States decreased last week1010000 barrels to123010000 barrels/Day, previously continuous3Weekly growth. Baker Hughes, an American oil service company(Baker Hughes)The latest data shows that as of6month14During the current week, the number of active oil wells in the United States decreased1Seat to788Seat, recorded a decline and touched for the second consecutive week2018year2Monthly minimum level;Reduction in total number of active oil and gas drilling operations6Seat to969seat;Reduction in active drilling of natural gas5Seat to181Seat.
Looking ahead to this week, crude oil traders will continue to monitorAPIandEIAIn addition to crude oil inventory data, other US economic data to be aware of include:6The New York Fed Manufacturing Index for the month5Monthly new house construction and construction permits6Monthly Philadelphia Federal Reserve Manufacturing Index Number of weekly applications for unemployment benefits6monthMarkitPurchasing Manager Index(PMI)、5Monthly home sales. And the Federal Reserve6The resolution of the monthly monetary policy meeting is undoubtedly the most important economic event of this week. The market expects that the Federal Reserve will not cut interest rates at this meeting, and investors will look for future policy guidance and clues to rate cuts.HYCMIndustrial Investment(britain)Analysts expect the Federal Reserve to hint at its readiness to ease policy, but will not promise to cut interest rates in the near future. The Federal Reserve may strengthen its monitoring of economic risks and take appropriate actions to maintain economic growth. Undoubtedly, the Federal Reserve's statement may be more5The month is more dovish. However, for those who are looking for signs that policy makers will cut interest rates at the next meeting, the content, economic forecast, dot matrix, and summary provided in this statement may disappoint. At the same time, Boston Fed President Rosengren, Fed Governor Brainard, Cleveland Fed President Mester, and San Francisco Fed President Daley will each give speeches this week, expected to provide clues for the Fed's future policy path. In addition, the development of the international trade situation is also an important risk that investors need to pay attention to.
From a technical perspective, the US Oil Week chart shows a slight spread of the Bollinger Bands channel, and oil prices are once again supported by the downward trend,14Weekly moving averages and20The weekly moving average has turned downward and is slowly attempting to rebound from oversold areas. US crude oil closed lower last week, with no signs of improvement in technical indicators. It is expected that oil prices will fluctuate widely this week. The supports are located at51.65、50.60、49.00The resistance in order is54.00、55.80、56.85。
There seems to be signs of diffusion in the Baoli Jia channel on the oil week chart, and oil prices have once again tested the downward trend and stabilized,14The weekly moving average has declined,20The weekly moving average remained flat, and the slow paced random indicator attempted to rebound from the oversold area. Oil prices fell again last week, with no signs of improvement in technical indicators. It is expected that oil prices will fluctuate widely this week. The supports are located at60.70、59.75、58.85The resistance in order is63.80、64.85、66.30。