Xingye Investment Golden Week Review: Gold Prices Rise Continuously for Four Weeks The bulls continue to exert their strength to seeFEDresolution

Industrial InvestmentgoldWeekly review: Gold prices rise continuously for four weeks The bulls continue to exert their strength to seeFEDresolution
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Last week, international spot gold bottomed out and rebounded in response to changes in market sentiment. At the same time, the expectation of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates also increased, supporting gold. However, gold prices are testing last year4High level since the beginning of the month1360After the first line, it fell sharply from its high due to the optimistic "terror data" from the United States, but it still closed up last week with a cumulative increase0.2%For the fourth consecutive week of increase. Silver and gold have similar trends, but silver has shown weaker performance and fell last week1%And end the three consecutive increases.
Last week, the market's risk aversion sentiment increased from weak to strong. Local time in the United States6month7On the same day, US President Trump announced a trade agreement with Mexico and suspended plans to impose tariffs on all Mexican goods. Mexican Foreign Minister Ebrard confirmed after Trump announced the temporary tariff measures that the United States will not impose tariffs on Mexico. The trade agreement reached by both sides avoided the escalation of the trade situation, boosted market risk appetite, and benefited risk assets led by the stock market. Safe haven assets such as gold suffered strong selling at the beginning of the week and hit their lowest level at the beginning of last week1319.76。
The rise in market sentiment is mainly triggered by the tense situation in the Middle East. According to media reports last Thursday, the US Fifth Fleet stated that two oil tankers were damaged in an accident in the Gulf of Oman, and the operator of one of the tankers claimed that its vessel was suspected to have been attacked. The deterioration of the situation in the Middle East has intensified geopolitical tensions, leading to a spread of safe haven sentiment in the market, and gold has rebounded with buying support.
In addition, the United States announced last WednesdayCPIInflation data is moderate,5monthCPIAnnual growth rate1.8%Less than expected growth1.9%;coreCPIAnnual growth rate2%, also less than expected growth2.1%The lukewarm inflation is seen as a further sign that the US economy may be losing momentum. The expectation of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates three times this year continues to rise recently. interest ratefuturesDisplay, Federal Reserve7The probability of monthly interest rate cuts has reached a high level85%;And the probability of three interest rate cuts within the year has also increased70%Nearby. Gold Returns1340Above the line.
However, last Friday's US data led to further suppression of gold's upward movement. Specifically, the United States5Monthly retail sales growth rate0.5%Although it did not grow as expected0.6%But the data has improved, and at the same time4Monthly data is declining0.2%Upward cultivation leads to growth0.3%。5Monthly core retail sales growth rate0.5%Better than expected growth0.4%The encouraging data eased market concerns about a sharp slowdown in the US economy in the second quarter. The probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates has decreased, and it has stimulated a significant surge in the US dollar index, with gold prices touching1358After reaching a high within the year, it rapidly declined and gave up most of last week's gains, but held on1340Gateway.
This week, the market will welcome the Federal Reserve6Monthly interest rate resolution. This may mark the end of the interest rate hike cycle and the beginning of the interest rate cut cycle, which investors have included as a factor of uncertainty in gold prices. Actually, it is good news for gold. Moreover, the market is increasingly betting on the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts in the coming months, and gold prices are expected to continue to hit new highs. In addition, investors still need to continue to pay attention to the global trade situation. Despite Trump's postponement6The decision to impose tariffs on EU and Japanese cars has been made for several months, and a trade agreement has been reached between the United States and Mexico. However, there have been no new developments in Sino US trade relations, and according to foreign media reports, India is considering imposing tariffs on US goods this week. The impact of trade and other geopolitical situations on market sentiment will also guide the trend of gold prices.
Technically, the weekly chart was recorded in the past two weeksKThe long online shadow indicates greater upward pressure and the risk of a high-level pullback. The long-term upward trend of the daily chart remains good, but it is currently oscillating at a high level,1350There have been multiple obstacles near the front line, and if this resistance is not broken in the short term, there may be downward pressure. Short term support attention1330/1320Resistance focus1346/1350。