Industrial Investment: Oil Price Range Fluctuations Waiting for guidance on the outcome of trade negotiations

Industrial Investment: Oil Price Range Fluctuations Waiting for guidance on the outcome of trade negotiations
2019year5month10day
International oil prices remained within a range of fluctuations on Thursday due to the interplay of long and short factors. The trade tensions between China and the United States have put pressure on oil prices, but the deteriorating relationship between the United States and Iran and the geopolitical crisis have caused further damagecrude oilRising supply concerns provide support for oil prices. As of closing, United StatesWTIcrude oil6monthfuturesClosing down0.09USD, or0.15%Report61.85dollar/Bucket, highest reach62.19dollar/Bucket, lowest drop to60.91dollar/bucket;Brent crude oil7Monthly futures close flat, or0.0%Report70.29dollar/Bucket, highest touch in tray70.61dollar/Bucket, lowest drop to69.37dollar/Bucket.
On Thursday, the spokesperson of the Ministry of Commerce, Gao Feng, stated at a regular press conference that Vice Premier Liu He led a delegation to the United States to participate in a new round of high-level consultations, demonstrating China's responsible attitude and sincerity in promoting consultations. He hopes to solve existing problems through cooperation and consultation. At the same time, China is prepared to deal with various possible situations and has the determination and ability to safeguard its legitimate rights and interests.
According to Bloomberg, US President Trump said in a speech at the White House on Thursday that the possibility of reaching an agreement between the US and China this week still exists. As the US President's tariff threat approaches implementation, Trump's remarks have made the market hopeful that China and the US can reach an agreement this week, and market sentiment has significantly improved.
On the other hand, the US government continues to take a tough stance against Iran. According to CNN(CNN)According to reports, US Secretary of State Pompeo threatened that regardless of whether Iran's actions are positive or negative, the US will retaliate quickly. Pompeo said, "The Tehran regime should understand that any attacks by them or their agents against American interests or citizens of any identity will receive a swift and decisive response from the United States
Despite opposition from the United Nations and the international community, the Libyan National Army led by Haftar launched an attack on the capital, Tripoli, and made little progress after more than a month, leading to a stalemate in the war. The longer the war lasts, the greater the possibility of a disruption in Libya's oil supply. Oil supply decreases year-on-year in Iran and Venezuela19010000 barrels/On a daily basis, the interruption of Libyan oil supply may further increase the supply gap10010000 barrels/Day.
Friday is the last day of the two-day high-level trade negotiations between China and the United States. If a trade agreement cannot be reached, the United States will begin imposing additional tariffs on Chinese goods imported to the United States on Friday. Investors are highly concerned about this, and the development of the trade situation will have a significant impact on the market.
In addition, energy investors will also pay attention to the weekly number of active oil drilling platforms announced by the US oil service company Baker Hughes. Last week, the number of oil drilling platforms in the United States increased from before805Ascend to807Seat.
USD Index
The US dollar index was in early Wednesday trading97.662Narrow fluctuations below the intraday high point. During the New York session, the US dollar index suddenly plummeted40Point, touch97.20The intraday low point does not have a clear push message behind it,10Period and3The yield curve of one month US Treasury bonds reappears3The inverted trend since the beginning of the month has put some pressure on the US dollar, followed by a slight rebound in the US dollar index, and ultimately97.38Horizontal.
On Thursday, data released by the Bureau of Statistics of the US Department of Labor showed that,4Monthly Producer Price Index(PPI)The annual rate is2.2%, consistent with previous values, not as expected2.3%;and4Monthly CorePPIThe annual rate is2.4%, which is consistent with the previous value and falls short of expectations2.5%The monthly rate is0.1%, below the previous value0.3%As expected0.2%The data indicates that inflation pressure in the United States remains moderate, and the Federal Reserve may need to wait for more evidence to support their view that moderate price increases are temporary.
U.S.A3The monthly trade deficit has widened to500Billion US dollars, expected to be502Billion US dollars, last month's deficit was494Billion US dollars revised to493USD100mn;Due to the increase in the import volume of industrial products from Germany and Japan, the scale of imports from the United States has risen, resulting in3The monthly trade deficit has slightly widened. In addition, as of5month3Increase in initial claims for unemployment benefits in the current week22.8Ten thousand people, exceeding market expectations2210000 people, the former value is23ten thousand people;4Weekly moving average number of applicants from21.25Up to 10000 people22.025People.
Powell pointed out at the community development research conference held by the Federal Reserve that the relative slowdown in middle-class wage growth, widening inequality, and declining expectations of the poor are key issues that the US economy needs to address in the coming years;We face challenges in ensuring economic momentum. At the same time, the Federal Reserve's Bostic said that the unemployment rate is at a record low, the domestic economy has not overheated, and we are almost in a period where inflation will begin to move.
Within the day, the United States will announce4Monthly consumer price index(CPI)Data is crucial for the outlook of the Federal Reserve's interest rates and therefore receives high attention. If the data is weak, it is expected to put pressure on the US dollar.
technical analysis
American crude oil
Daily chart: Poly+channel slightly declines, oil prices develop between the middle and lower tracks;14Daily moving average and20Daily moving average bearish;Random indicators are rising.
4Hour chart: Poly+channel convergence, oil price test on track;14The moving average is attempting to cross20average;Random indicators rise;Indicating a possible adjustment in oil prices.
1Hour chart: Poly+channel slightly rises, oil prices fall from the upper track;14Hourly moving average and20The hourly moving averages interweave and rise;Random indicators withdraw from overbought areas.
Overview: It is expected that oil prices will decrease within the next few days60.90-62.90Within the range of fluctuations, one can try to sell high and buy low. Attention to resistance above5month7Daily high point62.45Breakthrough will be explored5month2Daily high point63.65And then5month1Daily high point63.90, and4month30Daily high point64.75and4month26Near the daily high point65.00Gateway;And the following supports attention5month9Daily low point60.90Falling below will lead to exploration5month7Daily low point60.65And then5month6Daily low point60.00and3month29Daily low point59.40, and3month27Daily low point58.80and3month28Daily low point58.20。
Brent crude oil
Daily chart: Poly+channel slightly expands, oil prices rise towards the medium track;14Daily moving average underpass20Daily moving average;Random indicators fluctuate upwards.
4Hour chart: Poly+channel convergence, oil price upward is suppressed by upward trajectory;14The moving average has turned upward,20Moderate decline in moving average;Random indicators rise;Indicating a possible adjustment in oil prices.
1Hour chart: Poly Plus channel up, oil prices falling from the upper track;14The hourly moving average has turned flat,20The upward slope of the hourly moving average is slowing down;Random indicators withdraw from overbought areas.
Overview: It is expected that oil prices will decrease within the next few days68.85-71.75Within the range of fluctuations, one can try to sell high and buy low. Attention to resistance above5month7Daily high point71.30Breakthrough will be explored5month6Daily high point71.75And then5month2Daily high point72.15, and4month30Daily high point72.75and11month8Daily high point73.05;And the following supports attention5month8Daily low point69.30Falling below will lead to exploration5month6Daily low point68.85And then3month26Daily high point68.20, and4month1Daily low point67.85and3month29Daily low point67.10。
Follow on Friday:
U.S.A4Monthly consumer price index
Federal Reserve Governor Brainard delivers a speech
Atlanta Fed President Bostic delivers speech
New York Fed Chairman Williams delivers a speech
Number of Baker Hughes oil drilling rigs in the United States