Dan Chenjin: Gold is expected to break through1300? Heavyweight events and data staged within the day

Shan Chenjin:goldExpected to break through1300? Heavyweight events and data staged within the day
　　
Spot Gold Thursday（5month9Moderate rise in Japan, with the highest intraday rise in the US market reaching1288.00dollar/Ounces, gold prices fell after hitting intraday highs, reducing gains and still operating at1280Above the checkpoint. The US dollar turned lower, and the US dollar index hit its lowest point97.24, still running on98Below the gate.
　　
Announced within the day from the United States to5month4The number of initial claims for unemployment benefits in the current week is22.810000 people, lower than the previous value2310000 people but higher than expected22Ten thousand people, but still tending towards stability.
　　
United States3The monthly trade account is-500Billion US dollars, higher than the previous value-494Billion US dollars but lower than expected-502Billion US dollars, US trade deficit in goods with China narrowed to283Billion US dollars, creating5The lowest since the beginning of the year. Commentary states that due to an increase in the import volume of industrial products from Germany and Japan, the import scale of the United States has increased, leading to a decline in the United States3The monthly trade deficit has slightly widened, but is still lower than the same period last year, indicating that the trade account may not have the same significant impact on the economy as last year. Due to the narrowing of the trade deficit in the first three months of this year, the United StatesGDPThe growth rate unexpectedly strengthened, but this situation is not expected to reappear in the second quarter. Economists predict that the US trade deficit will continue to rise, which will drag down the economyGDPGrowth.
　　
United States4monthPPIMonthly rate is0.2%, lower than the previous value0.6%Meets expectations; Comment states that4The Producer Price Index in the United States rose moderately in the month, but potential inflationary pressures seem to be increasing. Excluding food, energy, and trade servicesPPIIndex month on month growth0.4%Yes2018year1The largest increase in the month. Despite a strong economy and a tightening labor market, price pressures remain mild, and the inflation indicator favored by the Federal ReservePCEAs of3Mid year increase in the month1.6%Yes14The lowest growth rate in months.
　　
This week, the trade negotiations between China and the United States have become the focus of the market. The two sides will continue negotiations on Thursday, and it will be determined whether they have reached an agreement today. US President Trump has stated that an agreement needs to be reached this week, otherwise new tariffs on China will be imposed.
　　
The Office of the United States Trade Representative previously confirmed in a draft of the Federal Register that starting from 12:01 a.m. Eastern Time this Friday2000The tariff rate of billions of US dollars on imported goods from China will increase from10%Up to25%. This timing happens to be in the middle of China's Vice Premier Liu He's two-day visit to the United States.
　　
The trade conflict between China and the United States has also been affected by another potential explosive point, as the Iranian government announced this week that it will cease compliance with the agreement2015The commitment to the United Nations nuclear agreement. Last year, the US government withdrew from the agreement and instead imposed sanctions on Iran, mainly targeting oil exports. This week, the United States has dispatched warships, including destroyers, to the Persian Gulf region, claiming to be under threat in the region. At present, any recklessness on either side will lead to serious military conflicts.
　　
United StatesCPIComing in the evening
　　
Friday Beijing Time20:30The United States will announce4Monthly consumer price index(CPI)data The data performance is crucial for the outlook of the Federal Reserve's interest rates, and therefore receives high attention.
　　
According to foreign media surveys, the United States4monthCPIAnnual expected growth2.1%The previous value is an increase1.9%；4Monthly CoreCPIAnnual rate of material climbing2.1%Last month was an increase2%。
　　
According to the investigation, the United States4monthCPIMonthly rate increase0.4%, CoreCPIMonthly rate increase0.2%。
　　
Analysis of Gold Technology
　　
Gold prices have encountered solid resistance formed by bearish trend lines. At present, the price of gold isEMA50Fluctuations near indicators. But we noticed that the random indicators hit the oversold area, which created positive momentum and helped drive gold prices up again.
　　
At present, gold bears have overall short-term technological advantages. A downward trend of two and a half months has formed on the daily chart. The next target of the bulls is to attack the strong resistance level1300.00dollar/Ounces. The next short-term technological breakthrough goal for bears is to push prices below solid technical support levels1250.00dollar/Ounces. The first resistance level is at an overnight high1288.00USD, then1291.00US dollars. The first support position is1280.00USD, followed by last week's low point1265.85dollar/ounce.
　　
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