Xingye Investment Crude Oil Weekly Review: Oil Prices Have Been Negative for Two Consecutive Weeks Short term or already peaked?

Industrial Investmentcrude oilWeekly review: Oil prices have been bearish for two consecutive weeks on the weekly chart Short term or already peaked?
2019year5month7day
International oil prices continued to decline last week, with the weekly chart recording two consecutive negative readings. Concerns about crude oil demand have resurfaced due to rising US inventories and production, as well as slowing manufacturing activity in China. HoweverOPECThe continued willingness to extend the production reduction agreement, increased US sanctions on Iran, and domestic situations in Venezuela and Libya have led to a tightening of crude oil supply, limiting the downward space for oil prices. As of the close, the United StatesWTI 6Monthly crude oilfuturesAccumulated decline throughout the week3.74%Report collection60.47dollar/Bucket, highest touch of the week64.74dollar/Bucket, lowest drop to60.45dollar/Bucket. Brent7Monthly crude oil futures have accumulated a decline throughout the week0.59%Report collection70.71dollar/Bucket, highest touch of the week72.76dollar/Bucket, lowest drop to69.66dollar/Bucket.
China announced last week4Monthly Official Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index(PMI)lower50.1, lower than the estimated median and previous values50.5;meanwhile,4Yuecai Xin/MarkitPurchasing Managers' Index of China's Manufacturing Industry(PMI)lower50.2, lower than the estimated median51.0And before value50.8China is the world's largest importer of crude oil, and its poor performance in manufacturing indicators indicates that the growth of Asia's largest economy has not yet bottomed out, which will suppress the outlook for China's crude oil demand.
US crude oil storage levels rose last week2017The highest level since the beginning of the year, and the upcoming equipment maintenance period for US refineries, raises concerns that crude oil demand will weaken and lead to further inventory increases.
According to data released by the Russian Ministry of Energy last Thursday,4Monthly Russian oil production from3Of113010000 barrels/Daily decrease112310000 barrels/Day, but still higher thanOPEC+The target agreed upon in the production reduction agreement. Russian Energy Minister Novak(Alexander Novak)Indicating that Russia5The monthly oil production will continue to implement the reduction agreement. However, several Russian officials have hinted that as the supply and demand situation for crude oil improves, Russia intends to increase production.
The increasingly volatile domestic political situation in Venezuela will further deteriorate the country's crude oil production and exports. Some institutions predict that the country's crude oil exports may drop to near zero levels by the end of this year. The current production in Venezuela is80-9010000 barrels/Day has decreased compared to a year ago50%Last week, opposition leader Juan?Guaido launched a small-scale military coup, but was quickly "defeated" by Maduro. US Secretary of State Mike?Pompeo accepts Fox News(Fox News)During the interview, it was stated that it is possible to take military action in Venezuela if necessary.
According to the Islamic Republic of Iran News AgencyIRNAAccording to reports, Iranian Oil Minister Zanganet said that Iran is studying new methods for selling oil. But Zanganei did not provide any details. Zanganei met in Tehran last ThursdayOPECSecretary General Mohammed?Ba Jinduo said that if otherOPECMember states pose a threat to Iran's interests, and Iran will not remain silent. Due to the unilateralism adhered to by some member states,OPECIt may collapse. At the same time, Barkindo spoke at an oil and gas exhibition in Tehran, the capital of Iran, stating thatOPECThe sanctions will not serve the interests of the United States, and Iranian oil cannot disappear from the market. According to the Wall Street Journal citing informed US officials, the Trump administration plans to impose new sanctions on financial institutions that do business with Iran, attempting to further limit the amount of US dollars flowing into Iran.
The exemption of US oil sanctions against Iran has been granted5month2Due date,OPECHow will we respond. The situation in Venezuela is expected to beOPECThe important agenda of the June meeting is for oil ministers from various countries to weigh how much additional supply is needed to fill the supply gap caused by tightening sanctions and worsening geopolitical situations. In addition to Venezuela, the situation in Libya is also worrying, as the civil war is threatening the access between the country's oil fields and international markets. In addition, oil smugglers and kidnapping for ransom in the Niger Delta remain a major issue in Nigeria's oil industry.
Oman's Minister of Energy told the media last Wednesday that,6The goal of the monthly OPEC meeting is to extend production cuts;Despite Iran sanctions exemption lifted, oil market may still maintain balance;For oil consumers and oil producing countries,70dollar/The oil prices in barrels are reasonable. Acting Deputy Minister of Petroleum of KuwaitSheikh Talal Nasser Al-Izabi Al-SabahLast weekend, it was announced that the oil market is in equilibrium, with each barrel currently74Oil prices around the US dollar are reasonable, and Kuwait is committed to complying with the quotas stipulated in the production reduction agreement. Saudi Energy Minister Khalid?Falih previously stated that Saudi Arabia will also comply withOPECThe leading production reduction agreement may be included in the agreement6Extended after the expiration of the month. However, as the supply gap widens,OPECPerhaps ultimately forced to increase production.
Commodity Futures Trading Commission of the United States(CFTC)5month3According to the report released on the day, as of4month24Solstice4month30The speculative net long position of crude oil for the current week has decreased23256Hand contract, to524103Hand contracts indicate that investors' willingness to buy more crude oil has cooled down.
In terms of inventory, major institutions unexpectedly increased their inventory data last week, but the number of oil drilling in the United States sharply decreased. American Petroleum Institute(API)The latest data shows that as of4month26During the current week, US crude oil inventories increased68110000 barrels to4.664Billion barrels, market expectations increase128.310000 barrels;Cushing inventory reduction38.610000 barrels;Reduced gasoline inventory106Ten thousand barrels, market expectations decrease104.310000 barrels;Reduced inventory of refined oil206Ten thousand barrels, market expectations decrease51.4Ten thousand barrels. US Energy Information Administration(EIA)The latest report shows that as of4month26During the current week, US crude oil inventories increased993.410000 barrels to4.706Billion barrels, creating24The largest increase since the beginning of the week, and rising to2017year9The highest level since the beginning of the month, with increased market expectations148.510000 barrels;Cushing crude oil inventory increases46.310000 barrels;Reduced inventory of refined oil130.7Ten thousand barrels, continuous7Weekly decline recorded, market expectations reduced19.310000 barrels;Increase in gasoline inventory91.7Ten thousand barrels, continuous10The first rebound after a weekly decline, and14The largest increase since the beginning of the week, with a decrease in market expectations100.5Ten thousand barrels. In addition, domestic crude oil production in the United States increased last week1010000 barrels to123010000 barrels/On the day, it reached a record high. According to the latest data from American oil service company Baker Hughes, as of5month3During the current week, the number of active oil wells in the United States increased2Seat to807Seat, first growth recorded in three weeks;Reduction in total number of active oil and gas drilling operations1Seat to990seat;The number of active natural gas drilling has increased3Seat to189Seat.
Looking ahead to this week, crude oil traders will continue to monitorAPIandEIAIn addition to crude oil inventory data, we also need to pay attention to TuesdayEIAThe monthly report is released to understand the expansion of US crude oil production capacity. There are not many economic data to be released by the United States this week, but it is worth paying attention to3monthJOLTsJob vacancies,3Monthly trade account4monthPPIandCPIAmong them, Friday20:30PublishedCPIIt will attract global attention. Federal Reserve Chairman Powell referred to the recent weakness in US inflation as "temporary" at last week's policy meeting,4The monthly inflation data will verify whether Powell's inflation viewpoint is correct. Many officials from the Federal Reserve will give speeches this week, including Chicago Fed President Evans, Philadelphia Fed President Huck, Dallas Fed President Kaplan, Fed Governor Quarles, Fed President Powell, Atlanta Fed President Bostic, New York Fed President Williams, and San Francisco Fed President Daly. Investors can obtain further clues about the outlook for the US economy and the path of monetary policy from it. Due to Trump's threat to raise tariffs on all Chinese imported goods to25%Chinese Vice Premier Liu He may cancel his scheduled trip to Washington this week to participate in a new round of trade negotiations, which once again increases the uncertainty of the China US trade talks.
Technically speaking, the US Oil Week chart shows a convergence of the Poly+channel, with oil prices falling towards the medium range;14Weekly moving averages and20The upward slope of the weekly moving average is slowing down;The slow paced random indicator has sharply declined. US crude oil closed lower for the second consecutive week last week, with technical indicators deteriorating. It is expected that oil prices will continue to fluctuate and decline this week. The supports are located at59.40、58.20、57.00The resistance in order is61.30、62.50、63.65。
The Baoli Jia channel converges on the oil week chart, and oil prices fall back to the medium track;14Weekly moving averages and20The upward slope of the weekly moving average is slowing down;Slow paced random indicators decline. Oil prices continued to decline last week, with technical indicators bearish. It is expected that oil prices will continue to fluctuate and fall this week. The supports are located at68.65、67.80、66.50The resistance in order is70.00、71.50、72.75。