Industrial Investment:OPEC+减产意愿松动，油价转跌

Industrial Investment:OPEC+减产意愿松动，油价转跌
2019year4month18day
国际油价周三早盘受到中国乐观的经济数据支持走高，美油逼近此前创下的5个多月高点，布油更是突破了72.00美元关口，不过俄罗斯能源部长再度对减产协议意愿表现松动，拖累油价走低，即便美国EIAcrude oil库存意外下降，此外，美元全线回升也令油价承压。截止收盘，美国WTIcrude oil5monthfuturesClosing down0.6USD, or0.93 %Report63.72dollar/Bucket, highest reach64.59dollar/Bucket, lowest drop to63.64dollar/bucket;Brent crude oil6Monthly futures closed lower0.2USD, or0.28%Report71.60dollar/Bucket, highest touch in tray72.23dollar/Bucket, lowest drop to71.41dollar/Bucket.
周三早些时候中国统计局公布的数据显示，3月工业产值同比增长8.5%Market expectations are5.9%;3月零售销售同比增长8.7%Market expectations are8.4%;同时第一季度国内生产总值(GDP)Year-on-year growth6.4%，与上一季度持平，略高于市场预期的6.3%。这为中国描绘了一幅更加光明的宏观图景，并有助于缓解对经济增长放缓的担忧。鉴于中国是全球最大的大宗商品消费国和最大的工业参与者，中国的任何积极因素都将有利于未来的能源需求。
利比亚战火重燃、对委内瑞拉的制裁以及美国对伊朗石油进口国的豁免即将到期，也给原油市场提供了一个看涨的背景。3月委内瑞拉的产量仅为8910000 barrels/日，随着美国的进一步制裁或导致该国的原油产量进一步下降至8010000 barrels/日下方，加剧全球供应的紧张局势。伊朗方面，随着5月制裁豁免到期，美国打算将伊朗的原油出口进一步将至10010000 barrels/日以内。而美国如果禁止伊朗石油出口，伊朗的强硬态度可能封锁霍尔木兹海峡，这将加剧原油供应的紧张情绪。
Russian Energy Minister Novak(Alexander Novak)周三通过路透社接受电话采访时称，现在谈论OPEC+协议的可能选项还为时过早，预计在5月的吉达会议上首次可能讨论OPEC+选项，最终决定将于6月作出。不足一周时间内俄罗斯两度表达停止减产的意愿令市场愈发担忧，俄罗斯将不会同意延长减产举措，未来几个月他们可能会正式放弃减产，这将使得油价承压。
US Energy Information Administration(EIA)The latest report shows that as of4month12During the current week, US crude oil inventories decreased139.610000 barrels to4.552Billion barrels, market expectations increase171.110000 barrels;Reduced inventory of Cushing crude oil154.3Ten thousand barrels, creating40周以来最大降幅;Reduced inventory of refined oil36.2Ten thousand barrels, continuous5Weekly decline recorded, market expectations reduced84.610000 barrels;Reduced gasoline inventory117.4Ten thousand barrels, continuous9Weekly decline recorded, market expectations reduced213.3万桶。此外，上周美国国内原油产量减少1010000 barrels to121010000 barrels/Day.EIA报告公布后，美油和布油短线变动不大。
USD Index
美元指数周三早盘短暂上扬至97.082盘中高点后反转持续走低，触及96.78低点，因中国经济数据乐观在一定程度上缓解了全球增长放缓的担忧，提升了风险偏好情绪，令美元避险需求下降。而后由于美国2月贸易逆差意外收窄和费城联储主席哈克的乐观讲话，支持美元指数触底反弹，最终收于96.968Horizontal.
美国经济分析局和美国人口普查局联合统计和发布的贸易帐数据显示，2月份贸易逆差缩窄至494亿美元，远低于预期值535亿美元，前值为511亿美元。这降低了今年初经济增长从去年第四季度水平放缓的可能性，经济学家对美国第一季度GDP变得更加乐观。该数据公布后，亚特兰大联储GDPNowcast模型将美国第一季度经济增速预测上调至2.4%, previously expected to be2.3%。
周三，美联储公布的褐皮书称，经济继续以温和至适度的步伐增长，美国就业市场依然紧缩，企业难以找到熟练工人，且薪资温和增长。
费城联储主席哈克表示，2019Year and2020年的平均通胀率预计将略高于2%，2019Year and2020年都将有一次加息;estimate2019年经济增速略高于2%，2020年约为2%;收益率曲线的反转并不是经济衰退的“绝对预测指标”。
technical analysis
American crude oil
日图：保利加通道上行势头趋缓，油价向中轨回落;14Daily moving average and20日均线上行斜率趋缓;Random indicators are rising.
4小时图：保利加通道走势平稳，油价回撤至中轨下方;14均线上行斜率趋缓，20均线下滑;随机指标走低;Indicating a possible adjustment in oil prices.
1小时图：保利加通道下滑，油价接近下轨发展;14Hourly moving average and20Hourly moving average bearish;Random indicators are rising.
Overview: It is expected that oil prices will decrease within the next few days62.70-64.75Within the range of fluctuations, one can try to sell high and buy low. Attention to resistance above4month17Daily high point64.60Breakthrough will be explored4month9Daily high point64.75，然后是去年11month1Daily high point65.35and66.00Psychological checkpoint;And the following supports attention4month16Daily low point63.00Falling below will lead to exploration4month2Daily high point62.70And then4month5Daily low point61.80, and3month29Daily high point60.70and4month1Daily low point60.30。
Brent crude oil
日图：保利加通道上行势头趋缓，油价自上轨回落;14Daily moving average and20Daily moving average bullish;Random indicators decline.
4小时图：保利加通道走势平稳，油价正在下测中轨;14Mean Square and20均线转向持平;Random indicator decline;Indicating a possible adjustment in oil prices.
1Hour chart: Poly Plus channel is declining, and oil prices are approaching a downward trend;14Hourly moving average and20Hourly moving average bearish;Random indicators have rebounded from oversold areas.
Overview: It is expected that oil prices will decrease within the next few days70.55-73.05Within the range of fluctuations, one can try to sell high and buy low. Attention to resistance above4month17Daily high point72.20，突破将上探去年11month1Daily low point72.50，然后是去年11month8Daily high point73.05，以及去年11month7Daily high point73.50和去年11month5Daily high point74.10;And the following supports attention4month16Daily low point70.70Falling below will lead to exploration4month11Daily low point70.55And then70.00Psychological barriers, and4month5Daily low point68.90and4month2Daily low point68.65。
Follow on Thursday:
U.S.A3Monthly retail sales
Number of weekly unemployment benefit applicants in the United States
U.S.A4Monthly Philadelphia Federal Reserve Manufacturing Index
U.S.A4monthMarkitPurchasing Manager Index
Atlanta Fed President Bostic delivers speech