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Zhou Hongjin:1.5非农利空黄金暴跌,EIA利空原油下挫,黄金原油下周一走势预测及操作建议

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Friday(1month4day),金融市场迎来2019年首个“非农之夜”以及美联储三大佬的两重重磅考验。美国劳工部(DOL)The latest released data shows that the United States12Non farm employment increased31.2万人,录得2018year3月以来新高,市场预期增加18.4Ten thousand people. United States12月份失业率为3.9%Expected to be3.7%,上个月为3.7%。备受瞩目的薪资数据表现强劲:美国12月平均每小时薪资月率增长0.4%Expected growth0.3%Last month was an increase0.2%; U.S.A12月平均每小时薪资年率增长3.2%Expected growth3.0%Last month was an increase3.1%。
  报告出炉之后,美元指数上涨约40Point,gold则连失1290and1180两道关口,欧美股市全线大幅上扬。随后,美联储主席鲍威尔发表讲话,称美联储将保持耐心实施灵活的政策,时刻准备着调整政策立场,此外他还表示,美联储不会对改变资产负债表政策产生犹豫。受鲍威尔言论影响,美元指数自高台迅速跳水,黄金则自低位小幅反弹。
  1month4day24:00,EIAAccording to the published data, as of12month28日美国除却战略储备的商业crude oilInventory increase0.710000 barrels to4.414亿桶,精炼油库存大增952.9Ten thousand barrels, gasoline inventory increases689万桶,变化值均创2017year1month6Day and Week(104week)以来新高。数据公布后,美油一度回落近3%to47.64dollar/桶,涨幅缩窄到1.22%,布油回落近1.5USD to56.65dollar/Bucket.
  

Gold trend analysis:
  
Golden DayK线六连阳之后,今日冲高之后遭遇非农大幅利空影响回落,盘中连续击穿1293的支撑位之后一度下挫1276后反弹,目前调整在1285下方位置;4小时走势上,K线高位回落且跌破BOLL中轨之后运行于其下方位置,BOLL中轨于1285位置形成初步反弹压力,上方MA5/10死叉粘合于1289位置形成二次压力位,也是周鸿金认为晚间以及后期黄金的多头能否二次冲高的关键位置;MACDindex0轴上方死叉运行,KDJ指标将触及超卖区;
  
  1小时线上,黄金击穿中轨1292的支撑位后二次跌破MA60of1288位置加速下滑,目前K线整理于BOLL带下轨上方,BOLL带开口,短周期MA5/10死叉向下至1284Location,MA10欲交叉MA60to1289区域形成反弹压力位,附图MACDindex0轴下方死叉放量,量能缩减,KDJ指标处于超卖区;
  
  综合分析来看,黄金自上次美联储利率决议之后开启单边涨势,盘中只是于1271回调一次1264之后即展开持续的涨势,每一个交易日几乎都刷新了新高,直至今日刷新近半年以来的新高点位至1298.4;而周五非农,受到预期和实际数据值影响,盘中金价自高位回落,盘中连续下破1290/1285两大关键支撑位后直接去测试1277的强势支撑位终于是得以缓解。综合来看,下周一操作思路上周鸿金个人建议以回调做多为主,反弹高空为辅,上方重点关注1288-1290One line of resistance, pay attention below1274-1276Frontline support.
  

Suggestions for Gold Operations:
  
  1Lower callback to1276-1278Nearby frontline long, stop loss4US dollars, look at the target1286-1288frontline;
  
  2Bounce from above to1288-1290附近一线做空,止损4US dollars, look at the target1276-1278frontline;
  
  盘间行情实时变化具体操作策略以周鸿金Ⅴ/Letter(zh66646)Guidance based on actual offer!
  
Analysis of crude oil trend:
  
  从日线级别来看,油价依然在MA5as well asMA10均线上方,并且价格冲击了一波布林带中轨48一线的阻力点,虽然并没有有效的破位或者站稳,但是至少目前是在向着上方冲击,并且MACD指标,快慢线形成了金叉,并且底部背离形态也已经走出来了,原油后续也许会继续维持上涨的势头。
  
  4Hour levelK线连阳向上;价格运行在均线系统上方,MACD在零轴上方持续的放量向上,说明当前多头趋势保持完好。综合来看,下周一操作思路周鸿金个人建议以回调做多为主,反弹高空为辅,上方压力短期关注49.3-49.5One line of resistance, pay attention below47.3-47.5Frontline support.
  

Suggestions for crude oil operation:
  
  1Bounce from above to49.3-49.5Short on the front line, stop loss0.4US dollars, look at the target48.0-48.2frontline;
  
  2Lower callback to47.3-47.5Long on the front line, stop loss0.4US dollars, look at the target48.6-48.8frontline;
  
Disclaimer: The above analysis only represents the author's personal opinion and does not constitute specific operations. The article has a lag effect, and based on this, profit and loss are the responsibility of the author. Investment is risky, and caution should be exercised when entering the market.
  
  寄语:这个市场对某些人来说可能已经身心俱疲了,从满怀希望接触投资,到损失惨重害怕入场,亏的连鼓励自己的信心都没有,或许真的不适合这个市场,无论从实力上,还是心态上,都不能做好,一度寻求一个可以帮助你的老师,也以亏损告终,继续待在市场不开心,离开市场不甘心,这或许是很多投资者面临的现状。任何投资都是有一定风险的,要么不做,要做就做出一番名堂出来。那么在投资的道路上,我给不你了太多温暖,我只能让你找回自信,我给不了太多安慰,我只能从操作中让你学到经验,我给不了太多虚假的承诺,我只能在实战中让你读懂市场规律。
  
Full guidance time: early7:00In the early morning of the next day2:00(Every day18Hourly online free guidance)
  
Comprehensive guidance teacher: Zhou Hongjin's analysis team
  Wen/Zhou Hongjin (micro-letterzh66646)
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