【01/04】汇评：美国ADP表现亮眼美元却惨遭双重打击，美联储三届主席齐亮相黄金或有

Yesterday's review


      美联储官员卡普兰在接受采访时对前几个季度不加息表示赞成，预期美国GDP增长略有放缓，但没有考虑过降息的问题；同时对于缩减资产负债表规模方面，他表示如有必要，美联储应该对调整缩表持非常开放的态度。
      同时晚间公布的美国制造业活动数据疲弱，加重了市场对全球经济增长放缓的担忧情绪，美元承压下挫，逼近96整数关口。非美货币纷纷上涨，gold一路震荡上行，创2018year6month15New high in recent days1295.30Gateway.
      Regarding the Euro:亚盘时段，欧元/美元震荡上行。欧盘时段，美国12monthADPEmployment records27.1，大幅好于预期值17.8, for2017year2月以来最大增幅，但当前美元反应平淡，欧元/美元短线上涨。美国当周初请失业金人数录得23.1，差于预期值22, for4周新低，当前美元短线下跌，欧元/The US dollar is rising in the short term. During the US trading session, the United States12monthISMmanufacturingPMI意外跌至两年低点54.1，大幅差于预期值57.9, creating2008年以来最大跌幅，当前美元短线下挫，欧元/美元短线上涨36个点，突破1.1400Gateway.

Today's analysis

(Europe and AmericaM30chart)

Regarding the Euro:


      Asian market morning session, Euro/美元小幅攀升，目前在1.1406附近震荡。技术上今日可逢低做多，下方支撑位1.1372、1.1337，若跌破下方支撑位1.1337时，可待回调至区间内逢高放空。
      今日将迎来2019年的第一个重磅经济数据，即美国非农就业报告。该数据通常对美联储加息有着重要的参考意义，因此对汇市的影响极大。目前就业人口市场预期值17.7，好于前值15.5，同时时薪增速也出现了跳涨，预期值0.3%Better than previous values0.2%，另外失业率预期值维持3.7%。若非农报告公布值较好，则利好美元。另外，美联储主席鲍威尔及前主席伯南克、前主席耶伦将接受美国经济学会的采访，很可能会就当前经济及货币政策发表自己的看法，以及发表对2019年货币政策的前瞻指引，若发表鹰派言论则有望给美元提供支撑；若发表鸽派言论，或令美元承压下挫，利好欧元。

In terms of gold:


      亚市早盘开盘，现货黄金延续隔夜上涨趋势继续攀升，目前在1297.70附近震荡。美国ISM制造业数据疲软，令美元承压重挫，黄金仍受到避险需求的支撑继续上涨；技术面黄金已站上1290关口并金价已站上1290关口并企稳在至200日均线上方，上涨动能仍很强劲。技术上，今日可逢低做多谨慎操作，目前上方压力位1300, lower support position1290。今日需关注美国非农报告，以及美联储三届主席的发表讲话，若发表鸽派言论，则美元将承压下挫，黄金将重返1300Integer level.

Today's focus on data:


Germany12Unemployment rate after quarterly adjustment
eurozone11monthPPIMonthly rate
eurozone12monthCPIAnnual rate initial value
U.S.A12Monthly unemployment rate
U.S.A12Non agricultural employment population after rose adjustment(ten thousand people)
美联储主席鲍威尔及伯南克、耶伦发表讲话

Disclaimers:


This analysis and trading strategy objectively describe the current market trend. Investors need to strictly follow the principles of following the trend, reducing positions, and stopping losses! We cannot solely rely on trading strategies as the basis for placing orders, this is for reference only!
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