【11/29】汇评：鲍威尔意外“放鸽”美元飞流直下，”超级马里奥”再次登场小心欧元

Yesterday's review


      美联储主席鲍威尔发表了备受关注的讲话。鲍威尔表示，没有预设政策路径，利率略低于中性。但10月份的时候鲍威尔称“目前到达中性利率仍有很长的距离”，这暗示利率并没有接近既不刺激也不抑制经济的水平。两次说辞大不相同，市场预计美联储或将开启潜在鸽派的道路。受美联储主席鲍威尔讲话的影响，美元跳水近90点，非美货币趁势反弹，现货goldreturn1220Above the gate.
      Regarding the Euro:亚盘时段，德国12monthGfk消费者信心指数录得10.4，略差于预期值10.5，当前欧元/美元短线下跌。欧盘时段，欧元/美元震荡盘整。美国第三季度实际GDPRecorded quarterly annualized rate correction value3.5%，和市场预期值一致，当前美元反应平淡，欧元/The US dollar is rising in the short term. During the US trading session, the United States10Annualized total monthly sales of new homes54.4，大幅差于预期值57.5，创两年半新低，当前美元短线下跌，欧元/美元短线上涨。美联储主席鲍威尔发表鸽派言论，美元大幅回落，欧元/美元短线上扬逾100Point, refresh daily high to1.1387。

Today's analysis

(Europe and AmericaM30chart)

Regarding the Euro:


      亚市早盘开盘，欧元/USD in1.1306附近震荡。技术上，今日可逢低做多，下方支撑位1.1291。若跌破下方支撑位1.1291时，可待回调至区间内逢高放空。今日重要数据和事件较多，首先欧元方面需重点关注欧央行德拉基的讲话，若讲话偏鸽派，则打压欧元，反之提振欧元。美国方面首先需关注美国10month PCE物价指数年率，该数据是美联储长期重点监控的经济数据之一，可以很好的衡量美国的通胀水平。目前市场预期1.9%，差于前值2%，若公布值较差，则将打压美元，若公布值较好，则有望给美元指数提供较强的上涨动能。另外还需重点关注次日凌晨时的美联储11月货币政策会议纪要。因目前美联储多位官员对货币政策持有不同意见，令市场对于明年的加息路径感到怀疑，因此预计 11月份美联储会议纪要的鹰鸽变数较大，需重点关注。

In terms of gold:


      亚市早盘开盘，现货黄金在1221.56附近震荡。美联储主席鲍威尔发表鸽派言论，令美元大幅走弱，金价则乘机上涨；市场对晚间的PCE数据预期并不乐观，而且美联储会议纪要也存在鸽派的可能，金价短线略微偏多；但1230.20附近还存在较强的阻力，能否上破还有待观察。技术上，今日可观望或逢低做多谨慎操作，目前上方压力位1226, lower support position1220。今日需关注美国10month PCE物价指数年率，以及美联储11Minutes of the monthly monetary policy meeting.

Today's focus on data:


欧洲央行行长德拉基发表讲话
Germany11monthCPIAnnual rate initial value
U.S.A10Monthly personal expenditure rate
U.S.A10Monthly CorePCEAnnual rate of price index
美联储主席鲍威尔发表讲话
Federal Reserve Announces Minutes of Monetary Policy Meeting

Disclaimers:


This analysis and trading strategy objectively describe the current market trend. Investors need to strictly follow the principles of following the trend, reducing positions, and stopping losses! We cannot solely rely on trading strategies as the basis for placing orders, this is for reference only!
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