Yu Qi's Discussion on Gold:11.22The trend of gold is fluctuating and falling, with analysis of today's gold trend and suggestions for future operations attached

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Yu Qi's Discussion on Gold:11.22goldThe trend is fluctuating, and the analysis of today's gold trend and suggestions for future operations are attached




Message: Wednesday(11month21day)Against the backdrop of a falling US dollar and weak stock market performance, spot gold rose slightly in light trading before the Thanksgiving holiday. On the previous trading day, coupled with the ongoing trade standoff between China and the United States amid the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike, deteriorating risk appetite, and a global stock market crash, traders regained their pursuit of safe haven dollars, causing the US dollar index to rise from its earlier two-week low96.025Recovery.

But it must be noted that the US dollar has been under pressure for most of the past week, as Federal Reserve officials have made cautious comments and the unexpected weakness of the US economy suggests that the Fed may slow down its tightening of monetary policy. However, many people in the US political and business circles have negative evaluations of the Federal Reserve, leading many investors to bet that the interest rate hike cycle is coming to an end.




Display, United States10The total monthly sales of completed houses are annualized as52210000 households, higher than the previous value515Ten thousand households and expectations520Ten thousand households recorded an increase, ending the continuous decline of the previous six months. After the announcement, gold continued to rise. The Chief Economist of the American Association of Realtors stated that the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike has increased borrowing costs, putting pressure on the real estate market. If the Federal Reserve could pause interest rate hikes slightly, it may provide an opportunity for the real estate market to develop more steadily. Due to the rising cost of construction materials and shortages of labor and land, the supply side is also tight. the United States10The monthly rate of durable goods orders has decreased4.4%, lower than the previous value0.7%And expectations-2.5%This is favorable for the gold and silver market.




From the United States to11month17The number of initial claims for unemployment benefits in the current week is22.4Ten thousand people, slightly higher than the previous value21.6Ten thousand people and expectations21.5Ten thousand people; Comment states that initial jobless claims in the United States refreshed last week4A new high in the past month, but the underlying trend still shows consistency with the approaching labor market. The US Department of Labor stated that North Carolina and Florida are still affected by the hurricane. Last week, the initial jobless claims in the United States were refreshed4A new high in the past month, but the underlying trend still shows consistency with the approaching labor market. The most concerning issue in the current market is12After the month, the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike plan for next year is widely believed in the market to be mainly focused on tightening policy, which is also the main factor behind the recent rebound of gold and the decline of the US dollar. Currently, the fundamentals of gold are generally bullish.




Yuqi Lun Jin's personal opinion: Yuqi Lun Jin believes that in2018As the year-end approaches, frontline investors hope to include gold in their investment portfolios, especially in the current situation of significant adjustments in the US stock market. Gold for measuring investor sentimentETFThe position has been increasing recently and has risen to a three-month high.BMOAnalysts say that "with the emergence of macroeconomic risk concerns, especially the possibility of systemic risks, it is expected that more and more of the investment portfolio will be allocated to gold at the end of the year." At the same time, the recent rise in gold has also been driven by short covering. With the arrival of Thanksgiving in the United States and the weakening of the US economy, some bears in the futures market will choose to replenish their positions and exit.

Gold trend analysis:11month22On the same day, due to the fluctuation and decline of the US dollar and the mediocre performance of the stock market, spot gold prices rose slightly and briefly touched1230Pass, set a new half month high. The US dollar has been under pressure for most of the past week, mainly due to dovish remarks made by Federal Reserve officials and dissatisfaction among officials and investors towards interest rate hikes. Investors' concerns about the pace of the Federal Reserve's interest rate hike support the rise in gold prices. As the US dollar exchange rate declines, gold prices rose to a two-week high on Wednesday, and the uncertainty of the Fed's interest rate hike pace also supports gold prices. The US dollar has been under pressure this week due to cautious comments from Federal Reserve officials regarding the global economic slowdown, which have raised doubts about the pace of interest rate hikes. Author Yuqi Lunjin believes that with the recent fluctuations in the stock market and the United States falling short of expectations, many investors doubt whether the Federal Reserve will12Continue its tough path after the monthly meeting.




Gold is still supported by the pullback of the US dollar and US stocks, despite the return of gold prices1220The upward momentum has been strengthened to a certain extent, but it remains to be seen whether the gold price can remain stable above this level. The bears still have a comprehensive technical advantage in the near future. Judging from yesterday's Wednesday trend, the price rebounded strongly by hitting the five-day moving average, especially within an hourKContinuous closing of the line, strong form, so there will be more retracement in the future, and attention should be paid to the pressure level above1235Daily moving average1230Nearby. From a technical perspective, at the daily level, the surge and fall in the latter half of last night resulted in a small bearish candlestick at the daily gold closing line. However, from the perspective of the moving average, the impact is not significant, and the overall arrangement of the moving average system has not been changed, still showing a slow upward trend. The daily chart is the three legs of the bulls, rising in sequence and forming an upward trend. The first two have already risen once, and the recent one1196The low point is rising.




In terms of four hours, gold mainly saw one bullish and one bearish candlestick emerge from all the gains and losses yesterday, rising1230After the first line of decline, the fundamentals have recovered the short-term gains, and we need to pay attention to it today1230Can the high point continue to break and continue? If not, the fundamentals will still revolve around it1220The frontline is shaking. At present, the divergence is in the overbought area, and there may be a pullback from short-term high positions. However, if the trend tends to consolidate in a strong form, it may be difficult to have too much pullback. Short term support for pullback is needed1220Nearby, this is also a short-term watershed position for strength and weakness, but if the trend towards strength continues, the pullback may come to a halt1225Wandering and consolidating nearby, overall chasing after gains is definitely not advisable, and short positions need to be relatively high to be considered suitable. Overall, in terms of today's operational strategy, Yuqi Lunjin's personal suggestion is to adopt a high selling and low selling range, with a focus on the above1230-1232One line of resistance, pay attention below1220-1222Frontline support. Add author Yuqi LunjinweixinNumber（zyq1970622）Daily market analysis, hedging strategies, and medium to long term guidance are all included. Welcome like-minded people to come and discuss!




gold11.22Operation suggestions:1#Lower callback to1220-1222Long on the front line, stop loss4US dollars, look at the target1226-1228frontline;




2#Above not broken1230-1228Short on the front line, stop loss4US dollars, look at the target1224-1222frontline;

crude oilTrend analysis: From a technical perspective, the daily moving average has a dead cross,MACDThe fast and slow lines are at a high dead cross, with a clear bearish pattern and no signs of stabilization. US crude oil has started to rebound and correct within the day, and domestic crude oil has also opened up a pattern of limit down after sideways trading. At present, US crude oil continues to maintain a bearish trend, and today's rebound is only a correction. Due to the deteriorating economic outlook and the surge in US production, it was offsetOPECIt is expected that the impact of production cuts will rebound, and the sharp drop in oil prices has ended the four consecutive bullish rebound trend. At the same time, the rise in oil prices on Wednesday was driven by emotions, possibly a correction of the market's overreaction to the overnight oil price crash. Buying on dips and Saudi Arabia's mention of production cuts also played an important role in the rise in oil prices on Wednesday. Overall, in terms of today's operational strategy, Yuqi's personal suggestion for gold is to focus on rebounding at high levels, with a secondary emphasis on long positions after a pullback. Attention should be paid to those above55.6-55.8One line of resistance, pay attention below53.3-53.5Frontline support. For specific solutions and operational strategies, please refer to the author Gong Zhanghao: Yu Qi discusses gold.




What to do if a gold short position is covered:1.1200-1205There are short positions in the vicinity, and in my personal opinion, the level of hedging is not serious. Gold is stable in the short term1222First line, but gold bulls keep probing1230The frontline pressure level has not been successfully broken, and the author suggests waiting for a rebound in the future market before being eliminated with a small loss; Or a high empty price may lower the average price!




Cooperation is only the starting point, service has no end. The tree of patience yields the fruit of gold. Mountains cannot stop geese from the south, walls cannot block winds from the north. Without experiencing wind and rain, one cannot grow into a big tree, without undergoing trials and tribulations, it is difficult to become steel. Without experiencing the cold of winter, without knowing the warmth of spring, knives will rust if not sharpened, and people will fall behind if they do not learn. We will create personalized wealth for you. If you are still on the brink of losses, have a portfolio in hand, or have poor overall returns, you can consult Yuqi Lunjin. Regarding the solution-TFriends who are trapped, because Yuqi Lunjin does not know the position and position of your trapped, as long as you find me, Yuqi Lunjin will formulate the most detailed solution for you based on your funds, position, position risk rate, and market trend-TPlan. Time flows like water, fleeting. Seize the moment and do not be blinded by greed.




Comprehensive guidance time:early7:00In the early morning of the next day2:00




Comprehensive guidance teacher:Yuqi's Gold Analysis Team



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