Althoughgold未能保持10月份的势头,但随着一波避险情绪席卷金融市场,通胀压力上升,黄金还有进一步的上涨潜力。随着美国贸易争端的持续,基本金属等经济领头羊仍面临压力,尽管经济数据普遍恶化,但美国的一些数据和政策看起来刺激了通胀。此外,川普在制裁和关税问题上的立场也会引发通胀,这对黄金来说是利好消息,总而言之,黄金价格最终开始反映出全球经济下滑风险的增加以及这对金融市场的影响。因此,随着资金撤出股市和债市,对黄金的避险需求仍有上升空间,因为如果通胀抬头,债券收益率可能还会进一步上升,来自美国的更多保护主义可能会导致通胀,而这反过来又有望支撑金价。 ​
Analysis of Gold Market Trend:
从日线上看,美联储12月加息预期回落加剧了美指的回调趋势,这也为黄金的反弹提供了契机。金价目前已经升破1220美元,下行压力已经大幅减缓。此外,金价已经升破了4month11A downward trend in recent days75%百分比位以及60日均线的阻力,这也进一步巩固了金价的看涨情绪。技术指标来看,KDJas well asRSI指标均温和向上运行,MACD快慢线下行趋势放缓,下行动能柱缩量,MA5日均有勾头向上运行,这暗示黄金短线或将有继续反弹的趋势。
从四小时来看,黄金反转结构较为明显,金价从1197Bounce to1225,涨幅有28美金,那么目前的冲高回落调整是有必要的,小幅的回调修正后关注上涨的力度。若本周能继续突破1225上周高点,并能一举上破1237前高点,那么此次大幅的回撤后反攻拉升将漂亮收官。若迟迟连1225高点都不能突破,那么不排除金价可能会阻力成功,有大幅回落风险。在四小时级上日内先看回调修正在看反弹的力度强弱。综合来看,黄金目前从1225高点回调幅度不大,力度相对较弱。所以日内短线上我们先看回落后的震荡修正,再看后续反弹拉升的强弱。所以今日操作思路上个人建议以回调做多为主,反弹高空为辅,上方重点关注1226-1228One line of resistance, pay attention below1216-1218Frontline support.
操作指南:
建议一:回调1216-1218Long on the front line, stop loss4US dollars, look at the target1223-1225附近,破位持有;
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