消息面:北京时间周五(9month14Day)20:30,被誉为“恐怖数据”的美国8Monthly retail sales rate recorded0.1%,为六个月以来最小增幅,前值从0.5%Revised to0.7%,预测值为0.4%。数据公布后,美元短线下挫后上扬20Point, report94.63,现货黄金短线上涨两美元/盎司后下跌。美国公布的8月零售销售月率前值为0.5%Expected to be0.4%,公布值为0.1,公布值小于预期,利多金银。公布的美国8月进口物价指数月率前值为0%Expected to be-0.2%,公布值为-0.6%,利多金银。
路透评论称,因消费者减少汽车和服饰购买,美国8月零售销售月率录得六个月以来最小增幅。此外7月数据出现上修,预计第三季度经济仍将保持强劲增速。但因中美贸易摩擦升级,预计长期增长前景将蒙上阴影。月的零售销售增速可能会较7The strong performance of the month has slightly declined. The decline in car sales should have some negative impact on overall data, excluding the sales growth rate of food services, gasoline, cars, and building materials, which may be lower7Of0.5%略微放缓。ISM非制造业指数显示,8月零售行业处于较为健康的状态,此外,强劲的劳动力市场和稳定家庭收入可能仍对8月份的零售销售数据提供支撑。8月份建筑材料的销售预计将出现反弹,7月份的建材销售较6月份相比维持不变。此外,食品服务场所的收入可能依然强劲。
黄金走势分析:从技术面分析,日线级别:低位震荡;MACDGolden fork operation,KDJ金叉运行向北走平,短线略微偏多,初步阻力在1208.90附近,若升破该位置,则有望进一步上探布林线上轨1215.57Nearby resistance;8month6Resistance to daily highs1217.83附近。不过,今日金价冲高受阻,昨日日线录得带上影线的阴线,暗示上方阻力较强,KDJ金叉信号有所减弱,如金价回落至1200整数关口下方,则削弱看涨信号;布林线中轨支撑目前在1195附近,若进一步下破,则金价可能会分别试探本周低点1287.59和布林线下轨1177.84Nearby support.
4小时级别上来看:震荡;MACD金叉拐头双线粘合,KDJ死叉,均线交织,短线缺乏明确方向,不过金价在布林线上轨附近录得“吞没”看空信号,且KDJ信号在震荡行情略微强于MACD,短线金价略微偏向下行,关注布林线中轨1194.64附近支撑,玉琪论金老师认为若失守该位置,则金价可能会进一步下行布林线下轨1187.82附近;另外1192.57附近也存在一些支撑。上方留意布林线上轨1209.46附近阻力,玉琪论金个人认为若意外收复该位置,则破坏相对高位的“吞没看空”信号,且会增加看涨信号。今日上方阻力:1202;1206;下方支撑:1190;1186;午夜操作思路上玉琪论金个人建议反弹高空为主。综合来看,午操作上玉琪论金建议反弹做空为主,回调做多为辅,上方关注1202-1204One line of resistance, pay attention below1195-1193一线支撑。添加笔者玉琪论金WeiXinnumber(zyq1970622)Daily market analysis, unpacking strategies, and guidance on medium - and long-term layout are all included. like-minded individuals are welcome to come and have a long conversation!
从日线级别看,布林带开口向右,油价运行在中上轨,均线粘连向右发散,运行在k线上方,macd面快慢线粘连运行在零轴上方,向右发散,红色动能柱初现。kdj面三线中部金叉,现拐头向右。4小时级别看,布林带缩口,油价运行在下轨附近,均线空头排列运行在k线上方,macd面快慢线运行在零轴上方,死叉向下发散,绿色动能柱持续放量。kdj面三线运行在底部区域。整体表现空头趋势。综合来看虽然伊朗和委内瑞拉的供应减少,但8月全球原油供应仍创纪录新高。但是随着原油需求的减弱,原油价可能承压,午夜操作思路上玉琪论金个人建议以反弹做空为主,上方需要重点关注69.4-69.6One line of resistance, pay attention below67.7-67.9一线支撑。具体的解套或者实时指导策略可以关注功肿/Hao "Yuqi discusses the acquisition of gold"!
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