现货黄金周四素有“小非农”之称的美国8monthADP就业人数为16.310000 people, lower than the previous value21.9万人和预期19万人,尽管就业增速小幅下滑,但劳动力市场依旧动力充足;穆迪首席经济学家詹迪表示就业市场处于火热状态:雇主正在积极竞争以留住已在职的员工,以及招聘新员工。小型企业面对这种竞争比较艰难,因为其越来越难以填补职位空缺。
相信市场当前有很多朋友也是跟随ADP数据看空。但是各位是否记得瑜铖之前说过的:就ADPWhen referring to non agricultural data, it is not so absolute. The reason is that there is a difference in the collection of the two data,ADPIt is the collection of private enterprise employment, while non agricultural employment is the collection of agricultural employment. Because the types of data collected are differentADPThe correlation between data and non agricultural data is not the same. So, investment friends, don't mistakenly think thatADP如何,非农就会如何,这是个误区。
当前的话,周四的美国至9month1The number of initial claims for unemployment benefits in the current week is20.310000 people, lower than the previous value21.3万人和预期21.4万人,跌至近49年以来低位,表明可持续的就业市场优势会继续支撑经济增速。也就是看好此次非农利好美元,利空黄金。之前出现过非农数据公布时,非农预期值突然变更导致本该利多的数据变为利空。所以此次各位也要注意小心此类情况发生。
而除了非农数据外,各位也同样要注意失业率数据的情况。上个月的失业率数据利空,失业率人口降低,而当前美也多此表明失业率情况将降低至3.5Left and right. And the current unemployment rate data is expected to be3.9%,瑜铖预测这次失业率数据如果不是进一步降低,那也是平开。