Industrial Investment: United StatesEIAInventory report favorable for fermentation Crude oil continues to rise

Industrial Investment: United StatesEIAInventory report favorable for fermentation crude oilContinuing to rise
2018year8month31day
International oil prices continued to rise moderately on Thursday, while US crude oilfuturessince7month11First closing in the past few days70Above the US dollar, the United StatesEIAThe positive impact of crude oil inventory reports is still fermenting, and Iran's sanctions continue to support oil prices;However, the rebound of the US dollar has limited the increase in oil prices. United StatesWTI 10Monthly crude oil futures rise1.06%to70.25dollar/bucket;Brent11Monthly crude oil futures rise0.72%to78.02dollar/Bucket.
EIAAccording to data released on Wednesday, as of8month24The decrease in US crude oil inventories for the current week256.6Wanzhi4.058Billion barrels, with a decrease higher than market estimates68.610000 barrels;Reduced inventory of refined oil83.7Ten thousand barrels, market estimate for increase159.2Ten thousand barrels, recorded growth for four consecutive weeks before falling again and hitting a new record6month15The largest decline since the beginning of the week;Reduced gasoline inventory155.4Ten thousand barrels, market estimate for increase37Ten thousand barrels. US crude oil inventories have decreased for the second consecutive week, further confirming the background that crude oil demand may exceed supply, which has boosted US oil prices by nearly1.5%Further exploration will be conducted on the following Thursday.
At the same time, the impact of Iran's sanctions is still fermenting and continues to support oil prices. Foreign media reports, as of8month28Estimated daily trade flow data for Iran8The monthly export volume of crude oil and condensate is approximately6400Ten thousand barrels, with an average daily export volume of206Ten thousand barrels. This is from2017year4Since the beginning of the month, Iran's monthly average crude oil and ultra light crude oil shipments have decreased for the first time7000Below 10000 barrels may indicate that the effect of the United States restarting sanctions on Iran is becoming apparent.
However, the US dollar index closed higher for the first time in five trading days, limiting the upward space for oil prices. The latest overnight release from the United States7Monthly CorePCEThe price index has risen to a six-year high, and the rebound of the US dollar is approaching again95The checkpoint has suppressed oil prices priced in US dollars. At the beginning of the Asian market on Friday, crude oil futures fluctuated narrowly and maintained a good upward trend. We will continue to pay attention to the latest developments in international trade and the impact of the strength of the US dollar on oil prices. Before new news spreads in the market, oil prices may remain volatile at high levels.
USD Index
The US dollar index reversed its trend and closed higher on Thursday, pausing its four consecutive declines as market safety sentiment cooled and the stock market recouped the gains recorded earlier this week. Investors were concerned about the US threatening to impose additional tariffs on goods imported from China next month, and a sharp drop in emerging market currencies also benefited the US dollar. In addition, data released overnight showed that consumer spending, which accounts for over two-thirds of US economic activity, increased last month0.4%This data also provides some support for the US dollar. Attention from the US today8Month ChicagoPMIThe final value of the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index will also have a brief impact on the US dollar.
technical analysis
American crude oil
Daily chart: Oil prices continued to rise overnight and refreshed7month17The highest level in recent days, with a good short-term upward trend of volatility. At present, the momentum indicators are still bullish, and the oil price trend is slightly bullish.
4Hour chart: oil prices are bullishMA(10)Supported by continued upward momentum, the Poly Plus channel is currently developing upwards,RSIMaintaining a high level, oil prices may continue to fluctuate upwards in the short term.
Hour chart: After the opening of the Asian market today, oil prices are bullishMA(10)Support may still rise before falling below.
Overview: Suggestions for improvement69.70Long above, targeting70.40and70.80。
Brent crude oil
Daily chart: Oil prices continued to rise overnight and refreshed7month12The recent high. The upward trend of oil prices in the past half month has remained good, and currently the short-term moving average crosses the long-term moving average to form a golden cross, which may support the continued upward trend of oil prices.
4Hour chart: bullish oil pricesMA(10)Support continues to rise, momentum indicators are bullish, and oil prices are expected to remain volatile and upward in the short term.
Hour chart: After the opening of the Asian market today, oil prices continue to rise, with a short-term trend that is bullish.
Overview: Suggestions for improvement77.40Long above, targeting78.20and78.50。
Follow on Friday:
Germany7Actual monthly retail sales
britain8monthNationwideHouse Price Index
France8Monthly consumer price index
eurozone8Monthly consumer price index
eurozone7Monthly unemployment rate
U.S.A8Monthly Chicago Purchasing Managers Index
U.S.A8Final Value of the University of Michigan Consumer Confidence Index for the Month