8.30早评：黄金承压下行把握区间，EIA提振油价继续上攻

　　goldreal-time info


Wednesday, USAGDPThe data was better than expected, but the US dollar did not rise but instead fell, continuing to operate on95Below the checkpoint; Gold was boosted and recovered1205Gateway. As of closing, the futures have increased0.48%Report1212.8dollar/ounce; Futures and bank gains0.34%Report14.695dollar/ounce.


The data from the United States last night was mixed. Actual Q2 in the United StatesGDPRecorded quarterly annualized rate correction value4.2%Slightly higher than expected, this is the best performance in the past four years as companies have increased software spending and reduced imports. US President Trump tweeted that this represents the success of all the major policies he has adopted. However, the subsequent release of new home sales data continued7The monthly decline has been recorded, and housing prices have been pushed up, making it unaffordable for more and more buyers, further slowing down the real estate market.


　　加拿大总理特鲁多表示，加拿大有望加入美墨贸易协议，并将很有可能在周五前达成NAFTA协议，因加拿大将在一直无法达成共识的乳制品条款上让步。加拿大的乳制品行业是在特朗普的坚持之下，新加入到谈判中的条例。


　　“通俄门”事件现新进展。美国特别检察官寻求延长对总统特朗普前竞选经历马纳福特剩余10项指控的复审时间。8month21日，美国弗吉尼亚州联邦地区法院陪审团裁定，马纳福特共受到18项指控，其中有8项罪名成立。陪审团未就另外10项罪名因达成一致意见，联邦法官当庭宣布审理无效。


　　Analysis of Gold Technology


　　黄金，短期多头未能延伸，再度承压跳水跌破千二，千二关口多次失而复得，表示市场多空分歧比较大，而该关口的得失情况也将决定后期走势。日线一根大阴直接回吐周一涨幅，令多头惨遭腰斩，而下方于千二一带形成关键支撑亦是不能过分看空，毕竟整体行情交投于布林带中轨一带，多空拉锯没有对错之分，关键就看行情沿着哪一边趋势走。短期内上方关注1210-1214In the US dollar area, further resistance is located at this week's high1217美元一带，而下方则重点关注千二关口支撑情况，一旦下破的话则会加大其回落风险。四小时上看黄金承压回落于布林带中轨获取支撑展开反弹，短期内关注MA10to1207.5美元一带阻力，若持续承压于此金价则会再度向下测试千二支撑。鉴于目前的趋势是看好震荡向下，但下方不宜过度去追空。短期上方阻力位：1210/1214短期下方支撑位：1200/1197，重点关注晚间20:30Canada6monthGDPMonthly rate, US to8month25日当周初请失业金人数，数据的指引，如受消息面或数据的影响，及时转换思路操作。


　　黄金操作策略


　　1Suggest a rebound in gold1210Short nearby, stop loss1214Above, target1203-1200Near.


　　2Suggest a gold pullback1200Long nearby, stop loss1196Next, target1208-1214Nearby, break through and continue to hold,


　　crude oilreal-time info


On Wednesday, receivedEIAData boost, international oil prices expand their increase. Brent crude oil prices have hit a new high in over a month. As of closing, MeiyoufuturesIncome increase1.71%Report69.7dollar/Barrel; Oil futures up2.33%Report77.69dollar/Bucket.


Last night22:30Announced US to8month24Day and WeekEIAReduction in crude oil inventory256.6Ten thousand barrels, expected to decrease68.6万桶。虽然此前API数据录得增加，但EIA减少值大超预期，WTI原油价格随之飙升。不过值得注意的是，美国俄克拉荷马州库欣原油库存变化值连续3周录得增长。而炼油厂季节性检修即将开始，这将开始影响原油库存和成品油产量。


　　美国对伊朗的制裁似乎已经开始生效。伊朗原油出口量8月上半月骤降27.5%to16810000 barrels/日。如果中国进口保持稳定，印度、土耳其和欧洲进口量下降50%，伊朗原油出口虽然不会归零，但将降至不足10010000 barrels/日。伊拉克高级石油官员表示，欧佩克将在十二月讨论是否要填补伊朗原油供应下滑的缺口。伊拉克8月原油出口接近359.510000 barrels/Day.


　　国际能源署署长比罗尔表示，强劲的需求、委内瑞拉原油产量的下降、以及中东地区产量的不稳定因素将导致油市在2018年底前收紧。


Technical analysis of crude oil


　　原油从日线级别上来看，原油再度收出大阳线，吞没了前几日的跌幅，收回到上升趋势线上方，多头趋势逐步打开，目前来看68的整数关口已站稳，确立了多头反攻的号角，四小时来看，行情已经突破布林中轨来到上轨关键位置，不出意外有效突破也只是时间问题，1小时上看，下方68.8一线是原油回落，能否做多的关键支撑位，倘若跌破那么多单的离场或者思路应当重新审时；结合分析，上周原油的大势反弹已经明确了多头的反扑信号，但近几个交易日却也未能有新的突破，昨晚由于EIA数据的提振再创新高，神指提醒，长线投资者需要关注的是，欧佩克成员各国产量的增加是否空穴来风将决定了油价能否继续保持上冲势头的关键因素，短线上回落做多即可


　　原油操作策略


Strategy1、突破至70.5美元附近受阻做空，止损0.5Points, target69.8-69.0Near the US dollar;


Strategy2, fall back to68.8美元附近企稳做多，止损0.5Points, target69.5-70.5Around the US dollar.


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