上周五晚间,美联储主席鲍威尔在杰克逊霍尔年会上发表讲话称,没有迹象表明通胀将加速升至2%上方。美元指数DXYShort term decline exceeding30Point, approximation95Gateway; SpotgoldAscending and breaking1200dollar/At the ounce level, the intraday increase expanded to1.5%;现货白银内日涨逾2%.COMEXMost Active GoldfuturesContract in Beijing Time22:00-22:03The trading volume within four minutes is10598Hand, the total value of the trading contract is close to13亿美元。鲍威尔具体表示,有合理的理由认为今年经济将表现强劲。如果经济增速维持强劲,渐进加息将是合适的。但如果通胀预期改变,将采取应采取的措施。锚定通胀预期是至关重要的,目前没有迹象表明通胀将加速升至2%上方。鲍威尔的言论偏鸽派,利空美指,利多黄金。
美联储主席鲍威尔上周五发表言论整体表现鸽派,美元受此打击录得大幅回落,油价因此受到一定支撑;同时美国油服公司贝克休斯周五公布数据显示,截至8month24During the current week, the number of active oil wells in the United States sharply decreased9Seat to860Seat, created as2016year5月以来最大单周降幅,整体表现利多油价;而且美国能源信息署(EIA)Wednesday(8month22day)公布报告显示,整体亦表现整体利多油价;另外美国已经重启对伊朗制裁,这是计划中的第一轮制裁,第二轮制裁预期将会在11月初实施。目前第一轮制裁主要目的是限制伊朗的crude oil出口,而第二轮制裁是限制伊朗的能源基建以及原油出口设施,从而增加全球能源供应短缺的风险。欧盟多数公司目前已经暂停与伊朗的贸易来往,因担心美国制裁力度将会加大。尽管如此,中国表态将继续购买伊朗原油。那么对于后市大趋势来看,笔者慧眼识鑫整体还是看好原油的继续上涨,油价有望再向70大关迈进!行情瞬息万变,想获得更多详情添/Jiagong/swelling/皓:慧眼老师。
日线级别上来看,原油同样收出大阳线,吞没了上周的跌幅,收回到上升趋势线上方,多头趋势重启,68的整数关口已站稳,确立了多头反攻的号角,上方关键压力在69.3附近,若突破原油将继续大涨,油价五连阳突破中轨阻力68美元,在周四整理之后周尾一举上冲69一线,虽然尾盘承压下探了一波,但依旧保持68上方整理,低位未破目前还是上涨势头,这将大程度上显现出油价将奔向70The US dollar barrier.
从四小时级别来看,油价两度跌至64.4The formation of a double needle bottoming oil price near the US dollar has led to a rebound in oil prices. Similarly, it has emerged from five consecutive bullish periods and directly pushed oil prices to a high level, breaking through the Bollinger Bands. The weekly trend has turned positive, and it has entered an overbought area in form. The overall direction of oil prices may once again challenge the trend70美元整数关口阻力,本周操作上慧眼识鑫建议短线暂以回落做多为主,上方重点关注69.5One line of resistance, pay attention below68一线支撑。关注反弹力度,强势的话周一还会有新高,若没有再考虑延续性。
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