Daqing's Discussion on Gold: Is the Spring of Gold Bulls Coming? Close observation is true, far observation is not!

Believe in experiencing FridaygoldMany people may have doubts about the trend of gold and hope to read more articles about the future in the market to give themselves a reassurance. However, it often backfires. Regardless of the market situation, there will inevitably be two voices in the market. If you blindly follow the market, you will not be able to solve your doubts, but will shake your decision. But the author reminds everyone that whether you are making a profit or losing money, please have the courage to face the impact of the market.

Firstly, last Thursday's one-sided decline in gold during the day18The US dollar hit a low point within the year1160Rapid rebound and uplift after the first line20The US dollar, followed by a slow rise and recovery, rebounded to above 0.2% for the first time on Wednesday of this week and then fell slightly. On Thursday, it was offered in the short term1182The position is rebounding here, and before Powell's speech on Friday, it will be retraced to1297First line, on Friday22:00It is even more directly pulled up10US dollars. For the market trend of the past two weeks, I believe many people have been following the so-called "low point continuously rising, high point moving up here, which is undoubtedly a reversal signal.". No, it's not. Let's first take a look at the rise of gold on Friday night25The reason for the US dollar. I think it's nothing more than the impact of receiving the following messages:

The institution intervened twice in buying, totaling30Billions of dollars, this is the most direct reason. Secondly, Friday22:00Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's speech was biased, stating that there is no sign that inflation will accelerate to rise2%Above. Obviously, it did not meet the market's previous acceleration expectations, but one thing that everyone chooses to ignore is that the view of gradually raising interest rates at the current speed has not changed. Therefore, the later US interest rate hike is still a high probability event, and the US index will continue to rise, putting pressure on gold. So don't make more aggressive behavior just because the short-term bullish gold has rebounded! Of course, there will also be many voices of bottoming out in the market, and as for how to read these thousand words and ten thousand theories, one still needs to be true to oneself! Never be the first person to follow the same cloud!

The development trend of the golden future market

The current gold is still a part of the long-term bottom rebound in the past, which is a reflection of the market trend2011The repeated confirmation process since the bottom of the year, and it also takes a long time in terms of time, when the major cycle has been defined, what we need is to grasp the recent rhythm. Gold is still in a strong stage of declining weekly levels and continues to fall below the limit60The weekly chart has successfully turned into a bearish pattern. What we need to confirm is not whether or not to fall, but whether there is a rebound, or where it can rebound to, and choose to layout the bearish market again. Since the overall direction has been established, a second round of decline will begin in the future. In fact, we have released a contradictory signal between objectivity and expectation, always hoping for a good rebound, and then finding opportunities to short or reduce long positions. However, in turn, it is difficult to define the true pressure area or turning point, resulting in uncertainty about the next route. In essence, long positions are more risky than opportunities.

In the past two days, Trump has been pushed to the forefront of the controversy. In my opinion, impeachment of Trump requires the House of Representatives to initiate relevant procedures, and currently the House of Representatives is in the hands of the Republican Party. Therefore, the likelihood of impeachment occurring before the midterm elections is extremely low. But if Special Prosecutor Muller finds evidence related to the "Russia Gate", it will directly affect11The midterm elections in the month may have an impact, and trade policies may also change as a result, which will have a significant impact on the stock market. At that time, gold will be like a wild horse running wild and unable to hold back, because the current situation shows that the probability of Trump being impeached is very low, so bulls are still powerless. In response to the minutes of the Federal Reserve meeting released early Thursday, the gold market interpreted them as more hawkish, and the minutes clearly gave a signal to continue raising interest rates in September. For the rest of this year, gold will still be difficult, and with the Fed raising interest rates, the US dollar will strengthen, which will become the main influencing factor for gold,The daily order strategy can be viewed from the official account Daqing Lunjin;The author emphasizes that if the market has already begun to digest the current situation where the Federal Reserve wants to raise interest rates but has not yet raised them, then the September interest rate meeting may raise interest rates. Beware of buying expectations and selling facts. In the short term, due to oversold technology, gold will receive some support.

The mid-term bearish turn in the gold weekly trend has long been formed. Although gold has rebounded, it is still expected. The market's support for gold is only temporary, and it is normal for it to rebound under the pressure of interest rate hikes and oversold in the early stage. Simply put, all current rebounds are aimed at finding pressure positions to carry out the next round of decline. Gold will gradually rebound in the ideal layout of the midline empty position, and the several positions that need to be paid attention to at present are1220/1240and even1280！

Overall, for friends who engage in short-term operations on a daily basis, starting next week, they will primarily focus on low bullish positions. For those who choose to enter the market for the first time and place multiple orders, they may consider trading at lower bullish positions1200/01Nearby completion, followed by consideration of1195/96Moving up, the goal is to further look up1208-10, you can pay attention to breaking through the position1217Nearby pressure points. If the opening directly starts with1205Based on this, we can consider breaking through the price increase1208Afterwards, callback1203-05Nearby, enter the light warehouse with multiple orders. As for investment friends who enjoy doing mid - and long-term investments, if the market stabilizes and breaks through1220Afterwards, let's first see the price rise until1240Reduce positions nearby and short appropriately, then wait for the strength of the decline and fluctuations to pay attention to changes. Once it stabilizes again, it is likely to rebound1280Nearby, everyone should be prepared to short the midline in the future100-150Point and prepare for the next fluctuation cycle.

crude oilWithin this week, the market has shown a strong upward trend, with the market moving from65The checkpoint has been rising until69Above, there is ample room for bullish expansion, and the daily and weekly charts have also recorded a strong bullish swallow. Technically, there has been an increase in bullish sentiment, but above70as well as71The pressure on the region cannot be ignored. The short-term trend of crude oil has strong continuity, but it is not long in the long run. It is only that the intraday fluctuations will be intense. Therefore, we need to be cautious about the potential for oil price increases, especially in the near future70Behind the pressure area above.

From the perspective of small cycle technology, the rebound trend of US oil prices is still maintaining, but the momentum has slowed down, and there is a demand for a pullback to repair indicators. On the daily chart, there was a slightly longer bullish candlestick on the upper shadow line yesterday. Although it maintained a continuous bullish pattern, it was evident that there was a clear obstacle in the rebound, and we can no longer blindly follow the trend. This is already a prerequisite for trading. At the beginning of next week, the US crude oil price may rise again, but it will break through70The probability of crossing the level is not high because it is not supported by potential energy. If we can take the lead in raising it, we can70Short the high point and boldly look down to adjust the target for a pullback.

Disclaimer: The above analysis only represents the author's personal opinion and does not constitute specific operations. Any operations based on this will be at the risk of profit or loss, and investments may be risky. Therefore, caution should be exercised when entering the market.

This article is planned and edited by the Daqing Lunjin Analysis Team, interpreting world economic news, analyzing global commodity investment trends, and implementing precise strategies for medium - and long-term layout. For crude oil/gold/foreign exchange/Friends who do not have ideal investments such as indices can contact Daqing Lunjin (official WeChat account:dqlj888）Get real-time guidance!