Poetry, tea, and taste of gold: time and time again, and time and time again, the reversal of gold is hopeless

When someone tells you: I thinkgoldWhen it will rise later, I hope this sentence does not affect you, everything depends on the market action. The market is a battlefield of long short confrontation. If it rises too much, it will fall. If it falls too much, it will rise!Standing onKFrom the perspective of the line itself, the great yang gives birth to the great yin, and the great yin gives birth to the great yang.

Yesterday, gold continued a downward trend and fell at the beginning of the morning,1192Nearby entering a short position, although there was some delay in the future market and multiple rebounds, it was weak and decisively rebounding1192Nearby, there was another increase in short positions, and in the early hours of the morning, the automatic short position stopped the profit, achieving a complete victory. Today, the first day seminar of the Jackson Hole Annual Conference is about to begin, and the market is looking forward to Powell's speech, which will require special attention.


Thursday（8month23At present, the reversal has basically failed, as previously emphasized by Shiming Pinjin. However, the key is strong resistance. With one go, another decline, three exhaustion, and two consecutive days of decline, coupled with yesterday's new round of tariffs imposed by China and the United States, as well as the latest policy meeting minutes of the Federal Reserve, all have boosted the rebound of the US dollar and continued to suppress gold. The only uncertainty that can elevate gold is Trump's. Of course, if Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's speech in the evening is particularly dovish, it can also drive a certain upward trend in gold.


However, the author believes that the probability is not high,9The monthly interest rate hike has been basically confirmed, and yesterday's unemployment benefits data once again indicates the sustained good performance of the US economy, after experiencing a surge96After the correction, the US dollar has begun to stabilize and accumulate strength, and the escalating trade war has also made the US dollar a safe haven asset, which is not good news for gold bulls. Therefore, the current situation has basically returned to a bearish market. However, as we have been saying on Friday today, there are relatively more variables, especially when there is an annual meeting speech. Therefore, do not be overly bearish today, and try to close the market as soon as it improves.

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Technically speaking, the daily closing of gold prices is once again bearish, withKLine drop toMA5Moving average andMA10Below the moving average, the five wave upward trend has also been ended, and the three wave adjustment trend has begun. At present, the gold price has fallen below1191-1185Supporting position, attached indicatorsMACDThe fast and slow lines also form a dead cross, and the fast line has fallen toOThe technical trend below the axis is undoubtedly bearish. The next step is to follow1180as well as1176Front line support.


In short, the probability of a technical decline in white market volatility is not small, but the magnitude will be relatively slow. The specific market will still wait for the specific news of the annual meeting and Powell's speech. Will he mention Trump's criticism of the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes, US stocks and trade wars, as well as political issues at the White House, all of which will affect the short-term trend of gold. Of course, if he were to follow Yellen's example of practicing Tai Chi, only one economic issue would be mentioned, and gold may not even fluctuate much until the close. So, today's operational strategy remains unchanged at a high altitude, but profits need to be strictly controlled.


　　Therefore, during the day's operation, it is recommended to use Shiming Pinjin:


Gold:1186-1187Short selling, stop loss1191, look at the goal1180-1177frontline.


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