8.23Don't blindly guess the bottom when the rebound momentum of gold is depleted. Analysis strategy for gold and crude oil in the evening

　　futuresgoldPrice from4Since the beginning of the month, it has been continuously operating in a downward channel. Industry analysts have repeatedly predicted that gold prices have bottomed out, but have been repeatedly hit by larger market declines. So, when will gold prices bottom out and have there been any opportunities to buy at the bottom?

In the short term, it briefly broke through on Wednesday1200After the US dollar failed to stabilize, the rebound momentum of gold prices may have been exhausted, so1180It is not wise to speculate bottom and long again until the support of the US dollar is confirmed. And once the short-term gold price stabilizes again, it is still expected to look up1210One line of US dollars.


But in the medium to long term, the rebound in gold prices over the past week did not pose a threat to the sustained downward trend, only to break through further rebounds1240Only after the US dollar threshold can investors believe that gold prices have bottomed out in the mid-term. Although the high net short position of gold also reminds investors not to overly short and sell, the risk of blindly bullish is greater. At least, the main culprit driving the decline in gold prices - the hawkish interest rate hike expectations of the Federal Reserve - are likely to continue to be confirmed at the global central bank annual meeting this weekend and become a driving force for the continued inertia of gold prices.


　　Gold analysis:


From the daily chart, it can be seen that yesterday gold collected a small yin pillar with a longer upper shadow line. Currently, all three tracks of the Bollinger Belt are moving downwards,KThe line runs below the middle rail of the Bollinger Bands, which is the middle rail of the Bollinger Bands1201The nearby gold price creates a resistance effect, with a short-term moving average lineMA5Daily moving average tick up and10Daily moving average with golden cross operation, attached indicatorsMACDThe fast and slow lines are located at0Driving with a golden cross below the axis, the red kinetic energy column is increasing in volume, and the indicator is relatively strong. From the daily chart, bears are still the main trend, and gold has a rebound trend in the short cycle.


　　4Looking at the hourly chart, yesterday's gold short-term surge reached1201Nearby, due to the resistance of the Bollinger Bands on the tracks, they have started to fall back. Currently, both the upper and middle tracks of the Bollinger Bands have started to level off,KThe line runs below the middle rail of the Bollinger Bands, with attention paid to the support of the lower rail of the Bollinger Bands below1184On the upper rail1200Resistance formed nearby, short period moving average lineMA5Daily moving average and10Daily moving average cross dead cross downward, with attached indicatorsMACDbe located0Driving downwards with a dead cross above the axis, the green kinetic energy column is increasing, and the indicators are relatively weak. Overall, there is currently a downward trend in gold prices, so in terms of operation, it is recommended to focus on high altitude for Shiming Pinjin, with a focus on the following1184Frontline support, breaking through to further support and look towards the direction1180Looking up1195-1200Resistance.


　　Suggestions for Gold Operations:


　　1.Suggest falling back1184Multiple orders entering nearby, stop loss4Point, look at the target1193-1195；


　　2.rebound1193-1195Nearby empty orders enter, stop loss4Point, look at the target1188Nearby. (Strategy for reference only)
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　　crude oilaspect:


The deadline announced by the United States yesterday evening8month17Day and WeekEIAReduction in crude oil inventory583.6Ten thousand barrels, expected decrease149.7Ten thousand barrels. Domestic crude oil production in the United States increased last week1010000 barrels to110010000 barrels/Last week, crude oil exports decreased43.710000 barrels/Solstice115.510000 barrels/Day.


Daily Line Goes Out in a Wave5Lianyang's recovery of lost territory has taken back nearly all of last week's decline, causing the short-term trend to fluctuate without continuity, and the daily trend is also in a cycle of yin and yang. But the cycle of continuous positive and negative lines, combined with the recovery of the large positive line. But currently, the moving average system is still chaotic, indicating that the short-term market is still volatile rather than unilateral. So continuity is the key, but this repetition increases the difficulty of short-term operations; Crude Oil DayKCollect a big bullish line, and the oil price will stand directly above it20Above the daily moving average.4Hour chartKLine connected to Yang,MACDThe continuous high-volume operation above the zero axis indicates that crude oil is currently in a strong position. Key focus for the day67.3Strong regional support and price retracement67.3After forming a clear bullish pattern in the region, participating in the long positions of crude oil and defending66.8Look up68.1-68.8frontline.


　　Crude oil operation strategy:67.3Long nearby, stop loss66.8, Objective68.1-68.8. (Strategy for reference only)


For ordinary investors, most of the time they should focus on watching and patiently wait for the best opportunity to sell, avoiding frequent trading is widely recognized as one of the winning strategies. Don't attempt to capture all the fluctuations, nor expect to judge every segment of the market correctly.


Due to the timing of article push, the above opinions and suggestions are not real-time and are for reference only. Reasonably control the position when making orders, avoid heavy or full positions, and cultivate the habit of strictly carrying stop loss and stop profit on each order.


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