德拉基鸽派言论市场反应过度 黄金重回低位盘整

　　International Information
　　
Yesterday, after the results of the European Central Bank's monetary policy meeting were announced, the US dollar strengthened again and gold prices fell back1230Below the level, both bulls and bears engaged in another battle at this level, and gold prices continued to consolidate. Ceasefire Order for European and American Trade WargoldLosing support, announced todayGDPData will be an important factor affecting the trend of gold. goldETFAfter a brief increase in holdings, the world's largest gold continues to decrease holdingsETF SPDRWednesday position reduction0.29%to800.20吨。这意味着投资者对黄金的兴趣仍然比较淡然。不过，历来看空的高盛却罕见地看多黄金。尽管金价近期表现不佳，但随着中国和其他新兴市场国家的需求复苏，高盛仍预计明年金价将继续上涨。目前从技术面看，黄金走势仍处于全面的跌势之中，在1230关口反复拉锯，显示了多空的激烈较量，若金价重返1230，则有望进一步上涨；若再度跌破1220，继而将考验去年7Monthly low point1204.9and1200Da Guan.

　　

　　周四，受沙特海上crude oil运输遭受武装袭击影响，油价纷纷上涨，不过美元强势反弹令油价涨幅受限。美国WTIcrude oilfuturesThe highest price hit during the trading session69.92dollar/Barrel, Brent crude oil futures hit their highest intraday price74.82dollar/桶。沙特宣布停止红海原油运输后，科威特随后也考虑暂停曼德海峡的石油运输，不过尚未做出决定。虽然科威特称此次事件对其出口影响有限，但若其也暂停了该海峡的原油运输，恐将引发市场对此次事件的更多担忧，进而影响油价。
　　
　　Gold Trend Analysis
　　
　　日线图来看，黄金隔日报收大阴线吞没周三所有涨幅，布林带持续向下运行，K线受布林带中轨压制再次回归MA5均线下方，均线呈空头排列，MA5、MA10于低位趋于粘合，附图MACD红色动能尽失粘合0轴运行，双线低位金叉，整体依然空头占优；4小时图上来看，布林带三线水平运行，K线受布林带上轨压制运行于下轨附近，MA5UnderpassMA10Forming a dead cross, as shown in the attached imageMACD由红转绿于0轴下方运行，指标中性偏弱，多头动能减弱空头占据上风。

　　

　　综合分析来看，黄金自上周四于1211一线止跌反弹以来日线阴阳交替，多次冲击1236一线压制未果，一直处于1218-1236大区间震荡。虽然昨日报收大阴线吞没周三所有涨幅，空头暂时占据上风，但下方支撑位1218/1215多次下探不破，支撑强劲。日内顺势看空，但不宜追空，短线上方关注昨日美盘反弹高点1231及区间上轨1236Suppress, follow below1218/1215一线支撑，操作上易萧建议维持高空为主，低多为辅。 操作建仓把握不准可连线笔者易萧品金，有套了单的朋友可转接本人官.tinyyxpj08，由于笔者不知道你们套了单的点位以及仓位的详细情况，不好给出相应的解开套策略，需要解开套的可单线易萧品金。
　　
　　【原油走势分析】
　　
　　从日线级别看布林带缩口向右，油价运行在中下轨，均线空头排列，5日均线运行在kBelow the line.MACD面看快慢线高位死叉下行，绿色动能柱逐步放量，KDJ面三线运行在底部超卖区域，向上交织后，快线拐头向右。从4小时级别看，布林带缩口向下，油价运行在中上轨，均线交叉运行在kBelow the line.MACD面快慢线底部金叉向上发散，红色动能柱放量减弱，KDJ面三线高位死叉下行，整体表现偏弱。

　　

Crude oil opened yesterday at69.4附近，反弹69.7附近下探回落到68.9附近再次缓慢上涨，从整体的趋势上分析，原油还是多头趋势，建议回调做多为主，上方需要关注70/70.5,Follow Below69/68.5附近支撑。详情操作及解析可关注笔者公衆號 易萧品金。
　　
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