Shan Chenjin:6.26全球市场大跌黄金能否逃离困境？日内走势分析

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Shan Chenjin:6.26全球市场大跌gold能否逃离困境？日内走势分析


周一，据外媒援引知情人士报道称，美国总统特朗普禁止中国持股比例在25%以上的公司收购涉及“重大工业技术”的美国公司。这一报道使得贸易战担忧愈演愈烈，市场恐慌情绪骤升，全球市场哀鸿遍野：从美股、到欧股再到亚太股市在内的全球股市都大幅下挫，美元和人民币齐跌，美债收益率下跌，不过黄金几乎没有在其中得到上涨动能。

就目前的状况来看，虽然近期黄金市场表现低迷，但多头们也不是已经完全放弃，从盘面上看，显然不是单边下跌的一个行情，最多算作震荡下行。我个人认为黄金近期的疲软是暂时的，一旦美元的强势表现开始变化，那么黄金就将回升。由于市场已经将今年还有两次加息计入了影响，因此黄金下行将是有限的。而另一方面，市场有着大量风险事件，地缘政治的不确定性以及股市可能出现的修正都会为黄金带来避险需求的提振。


周一早间开盘小幅跳空高开突破上周五阻力位1271一线，短线有延续上涨的趋势，日内有回撤回补跳空缺口的动作，关注回补力度以及空间，回撤择机布局进场。四小时周期来看当前处于下跌的趋势行情中，K线结构上黄金自1365下跌以来至上周四低点1261，跌了近104美金，有反弹上涨的需求，而黄金跌倒这波下挫低点1261后，并没有一如既往的破位下挫，而是就此依托下方强支撑1260支撑一线展开反弹修正，目前来看此线支撑有效，后市是否依托此线走一波反转大幅上涨还需盘中进一步确认。


均线上金价短线受阻MA30，下方受MA20支撑且MA5拐头向上有与MA20粘合交叉形成均线金叉的趋势，短线下方支撑强劲，预计即使日内回撤整理空间也有限，重点关注反弹力度以及高度，上方关注1272/1275阻力，指标上KDJ拐头向上释放回调整理信号，暂时未形成死叉，但回调整理信号明显，回撤就是给布局进场的机会，下方重中之重的仍是关注1260Frontline support.MACD红色动能柱由缩量再度放量，快慢线自低位金叉出现后持续保持开后向上发散的趋势，所以短线有延续反弹上涨趋势。


黄金短期趋势仍处于弱势偏空格局中，短线受下方1260支撑明显，后续反弹力度以及高度是判定行情是否就此反转重要依据，日内操作上暂时建议采取高沽低渣即可，下方重点关注1260一线阻力，上方重点关注1272A line of resistance.


Suggestions for Gold Operations:


1Rebound1270-1272Empty order entry, stop loss4US dollars, look at the target1264Nearby;


2, unbreakable1260-1261Long on the front line, stop loss4US dollars, look at the target1268Near.


如何才能稳定收益，稳中求胜？


Some fundamental factors must be overcome by profit makers, and every step is a watershed; From the moment you enter this market, don't expect to become rich overnight. Good fund management and trading habits are crucial, and maintaining a fixed position is still the key; A small profitable position and a large losing position will ultimately result in a loss! And if fixed cannot make a profit, then it is a matter of probability and success rate!


Trading indicates the beginning of boredom, which is normal. We are not trading for excitement, trading for excitement can only be a way to stay away from this market. Accepting boredom is also a part of successful trading! If you decide on your own trade, then strictly execute it. In the trend, follow the trend and buy high and buy low in the range. Watch more and move less. Also, don't speculate because of the price, think that the price has dropped enough and buy, and don't short sell because the price has risen sharply. Define the trading signal, which is also the only reason for execution! The rest involves emotions, don't let emotions interfere with your operational decisions!

多日以来，最为困惑的还是持续性，行情的延续能力不够强，日内金价破位，但晚间反抽空，就没有回落的空间，走是一波行情。这让我们想起了日线节奏，很可能只是换个区间震荡。一直以来，都在追求黄金突破后的单边，几乎是清一色的下跌抄底，但从这两年的波幅来看，今年虽然动荡，但黄金可能陷入震幅震荡年。市场，总是在跌的时候，吸引大家抄底，而在涨的时候，都在计划抄顶，过了一轮又一轮，就是没有一个合适的位置去进场。为什么？很简单的道理，不顺势。


Author of this article: Shan Chenjin


Author's Message: A broad view and appointment, thick accumulation and thin hair!


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The above content is for reference only. Investment carries risks and caution is required when entering the market.