Sincerely open:6.6Early evaluation of gold and crude oil operation suggestions

　　简单的KLine


But it contains traces of game theory


Following the trace of operation


Find the direction of the trend


And grasp the direction


And seize the future

Message surface parsing:


　　上周五的非农报告展示了美国就业市场的繁荣。由此，市场普遍认为美联储将会在下周宣布加息，并最终将利率推至他们所认为的中性水平。值得注意的是，一般而言，在达到充分就业之后，失业率将很难出现进一步下降。但现实情况是，当下3.8%的失业率已低于美联储所设想的充分就业水平，并在强劲的就业增长下继续呈现下行趋势。在这方面，或许美联储也意识到，他们高估了充分就业所对应的失业率。


　　但更需要注意的是，当下失业率已经达到2000年以来的最低水平，并诱发出经济过热的风险。在这种风险下，美联储必然会坚持将利率上调至中性水平。但是停滞的通胀爬升又给美联储的加息步伐带来阻遏。从5月份美联储会议纪要可以看出，美联储将在未来加强对超出预期的通胀水平的容忍程度，不会对更强劲的通胀数据作出过度反应。


　　因此可以确定的是，除非通胀问题变得十分突出，否则美联储是不会冒着经济大幅放缓的危险将利率上调至超过中性水平的。然而，准确衡量中性利率水平本身也绝非易事。因此我们可以预计，在利率接近或达到中性水平后，美联储或许会转而采取一种更为微妙的方式进行加息。这也是gold始终在千三所徘徊的原因，所以笔者认为今天的暴涨回到千三也是意料之中的事情，可能投资者没有考虑到这个原因，仅仅依靠加息来判断在1292附近做空被深套甚至爆仓实在可惜。

Gold Technology Analysis:


　　黄金周二行情走到现在，可以说是毫无亮点，从开盘到现在，行情一直在5个点的区间内波动。这样的行情操作就需要及时将利润落袋为安，整体的利润较其实的时间要缩小很多。不过，行情在凌晨前再度下探测试1290一线支撑后加速反弹回升，金价已经反弹至高点1300美元附近后下跌，目前金价收线于1296一线，诚至认为加息前短线上黄金还会向上反弹试探高点，上方关键阻力关注1302-1306frontline.


　　黄金技术面来看，黄金维持在低位震荡；技术面上来看，黄金周线图上，金价两度回测1月以来震荡箱体底部受阻，布林带向下开口，偏空；日线图上，金价三度回测200Daily moving average and1月以来震荡箱体底部区域受阻，但MACD金叉，中性略偏空；下行压力减弱，但仍可能二次探底，只有稳定站上200日均线及前期箱体底部才能扭转看跌前景；诚至观点黄金日线图中金价整体走势偏于看空，目前价格处在大幅下跌之后的反弹调整周期中，目前来看这种震荡走弱调整的走势还可能延续。而日线指标上，5Rihe10日均线交叉后偏下运行，短期阻力关注5Monthly moving average1303Nearby, further attention10Daily moving average1306Short line4小时图上看，金价持于5Rihe10日均线下方运行，均线勾头向下延伸发展，布林带有轻微缩口迹象。综合来看，黄金短期仍然持于1300关键位置下方震荡走弱，今日行情趋势料延续震荡，就黄金目前来说，金价下行压力减弱，但仍可能二次探底，操作上诚至个人建议以反弹高空为主，上方继续关注1302Nearby line of resistance, pay attention below1290Frontline support.


Suggestions for Gold Operations:


　　1Rebound to1298-1300Short on the front line, stop loss1303, Objective1290；


　　2、下方不破1290Multiple, stop loss1285, look at the goal1298Nearby;

　　crude oilTechnical analysis:


　　昨日延续破低下行，亚盘低位整理，欧盘过渡修正，反弹最高触及66.03一带承压，美盘时段刷新64.55低点，尾盘时段低位震荡收盘。日图小阴线收低。日线上K线收标准阴线，早盘走势较弱，上方承压，布林开口向下，油价运行在布林下轨附近，5Daily moving average and10日均线死叉下行，附图指标MACD快慢线同样死叉下行并穿越零轴，能量柱放量；


　　四小时图上，油价同样运行在布林下轨附近，MA各算中期均线呈空头排列，附图指标MACD快慢线同样在零轴下方交死叉，能量柱放量。小时图上，布林开口向下，油价运行在布林中下轨之间，5Daily moving average and10日均线金叉上行，附图指标MACD快满侠粘合运行，综合来看，原油短线依旧看震荡，还是空头占优，操作还是高位做空为主。上方关注65.75One line of resistance, pay attention below64.1Frontline support.


Suggestions for crude oil operation:


　　1Rebound65-64.8Near empty, stop loss0.5US dollars, target see64.3-64.1On the front line, breaking through and holding;


　　2Downward weak break63.6一下可在63.6-63.8One more time, stop loss0.5US dollars, target see64.3upper.

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US crude oil: fixed margin400USD in one hand/1000Bucket, Fluctuation0.02USD return, fluctuating0.01USD profit and loss10USD, no spread, no overnight fee.


Silver: Fixed margin400USD in one hand/5000Ounces, fluctuating0.010USD return, fluctuating0.01USD profit and loss20USD, no spread, no overnight fee.


US Gold: Estimated Margin400USD in one hand/100Ounces, fluctuating0.2USD return, fluctuating0.1USD profit and loss10USD, no spread, no overnight fee.


Natural gas: Fixed margin400USD in one hand/10000mmBtuFluctuation0.·002USD return, fluctuating0.001USD profit and loss10USD, no spread, no overnight fee.